Bayesian hierarchical modelling of basketball team performance : an NBA regular season case study

The main goal of this study is to propose two Bayesian hierarchical modelling approaches using basketball game data from the 2008/2009 NBA regular season. The aim of the first approach is to estimate the results of each match during the season. This is done by considering each scoring method in basketball separately, that is, free throws, 2-point shots and 3-point shots, and estimating the offensive and defensive ability with respect to each scoring method for each team. These attributes are then used to produce a final score for each match. We attempt both the Poisson and the negative binomial distribution to model the scoring propensities. Both models are used to predict game outcomes and final standings, and since we find the negative binomial approach to be considerably superior, we use it to determine overall attack and defense abilities of each time for each scoring method. The second modelling approach, on the other hand, focuses on finding the probability of the home team winning a particular match in the season. Due to MCMC convergence issues, this model is represented by just one parameter representing overall strength for each team rather than two. When comparing the winning probability approach with the scoring propensity approach, we find that the latter is superior at predicting game outcomes, the former is superior at predicting final standings, while both are comparable in predicting which teams will qualify to playoffs.peer-reviewe

New label no progress: institutional racism and the persistent segregation of Romani students in the Czech Republic

The over-representation of Romani children in special schools in the Czech Republic is well documented and widely condemned. In 2007 the European Court of Human Rights found the state guilty of discrimination against Romani children on the basis of disproportionate placement of children in remedial special schools. In 2015 high numbers of Romani children are still being misdiagnosed with Special Educational Needs and offered a limited and inappropriate education. This article explores the challenges which continue to hamper their successful inclusion in the Czech education system. Using Critical Race Theory as a lens to examine the Czech case, problems with the current policy trajectory are identified. The article shows that institutional racism persists in the Czech Republic, shaping attitudes and practices at all levels. Policy makers demonstrate little recognition of ingrained educational inequalities and Roma continue to be widely perceived as ‘others’ who must learn to adapt to Czech ways rather than as citizens who are entitled to services on their own terms

The role of corporates in creating sustainable Olympic legacies

The Olympic Games is a major stimulus for increased tourism. In recent years there have been greater calls for this and other mega events to leave sustainable positive legacies for the host city, partly to offset the massive cost of hosting. To date, little consideration has been afforded to the role of corporates might play in contributing to event legacies. This gap is compounded by the lack of research examining stakeholder engagement in legacy planning more generally. This paper adopts Holmes, Hughes, Mair and Carlsen’s (2015) sustainable event legacy timeline to conceptualise how corporates through the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives of sponsorship and employee volunteering can engage across the Olympic event planning cycle to generate volunteering legacies. Drawing upon a comparative study of the Sydney 2000 and London 2012 Olympic Games, tentative evidence of corporate engagement was noted but for the most part it was fragmented and CSR initiatives primarily focused on the immediate planning and delivery stages of the event cycle. The paper advances new knowledge of how volunteering legacies can be generated through the best practice engagement of corporates as key stakeholders involved in legacy planning and governance across the Olympic planning cycle

Can ensemble learning approaches for offside detection work?

The analysis of data collected from various recreational activities and professional sports is essential to obtain more information on the activity in question or to make better data-driven decisions. Most literature related to offside detection related to the efficacy of manual offside detection or the use of an offside detection algorithm. In this study, the focus shall be on the detection of offside judgements in football/soccer using ensemble learning approaches such as random forest type algorithms, boosting type algorithms and majority voting. For random forests, we also consider three corresponding extensions: regularized random forests, guided regularized random forests, and guided random forests. Moreover, five boosting approaches are considered, namely: Discrete AdaBoost, Real AdaBoost, Gentle AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting and Extreme Gradient Boosting. Gentle AdaBoost is the best performing model on most metrics, except for sensitivity, where Extreme Gradient Boosting performs best. Furthermore, soft majority voting among the models considered is capable of improving the Cohen’s Kappa and the F1 score but does not provide improvements on other metrics.peer-reviewe

Use of fake identification to purchase alcohol amongst 15-16 year olds: a cross-sectional survey examining alcohol access, consumption and harm

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite legislation and enforcement activities to prevent underage access to alcohol, underage individuals continue to be able to access alcohol and to do so at levels which put them at significant risk of alcohol-related harm.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An opportunistic survey of 15-16 year olds (n = 9,833) across North West England was used to examine alcohol consumption, methods of access and related harms experienced (such as regretted sex). Associations between these were analysed using chi square and logistic regression techniques.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Over a quarter (28.3%) of 15-16 year old participants who drank reported having bought their own alcohol. One seventh (14.9%) of these owned at least one form of fake identification for which by far the most common purchase method was online. Logistic regression analyses showed that those who owned fake identification were significantly more likely to be male (AOR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.7-2.5; P < 0.001) and to receive a higher personal weekly income (comparing those who received > £30 with those who received ≤ £10: AOR = 3.7; 95% CI = 2.9-4.9; P < 0.001). After taking into account differences in demographic characteristics and personal weekly income, ownership of fake identification was significantly associated with binge drinking (AOR = 3.5, 95% CI = 2.8-4.3; P < 0.001), frequent drinking (AOR = 3.0, 95% CI = 2.5-3.7; P < 0.001) and public drinking (AOR = 3.3, 95% CI = 2.5-4.1; P < 0.001) compared with those who did not own fake identification. Further, those who reported owning fake identification were significantly more likely to report experiencing a variety of alcohol-related harms such as regretted sex after drinking (chi square, all P < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Young people (aged 15-16 years) who have access to fake identification are at a particularly high risk of reporting hazardous alcohol consumption patterns and related harm. Owning fake identification should be considered a risk factor for involvement in risky drinking behaviours. Information on these hazards should be made available to schools and professionals in health, social and judicial services, along with advice on how to best to work with those involved.</p

The digital divide: Patterns, policy and scenarios for connecting the ‘final few’ in rural communities across Great Britain

The Internet can bestow significant benefits upon those who use it. The prima facie case for an urban-rural digital divide is widely acknowledged, but detailed accounts of the spatial patterns of digital communications infrastructure are rarely reported. In this paper we present original analysis of data published by the UK telecommunications regulator, Ofcom, and identify and reflect on the entrenched nature of the urban-rural digital divide in Great Britain. Drawing upon illustrative case vignettes we demonstrate the implications of digital exclusion for personal and business lives in rural, and in particular remote rural, areas. The ability of the current UK policy context to effectively address the urban-rural digital divide is reviewed and scenarios for improving digital connectivity amongst the ‘final few’, including community-led broadband, satellite broadband and mobile broadband, are considered. A call is made for digital future proofing in telecommunications policy, without which the already faster urban areas will get ‘faster, fastest’ leaving rural areas behind and an increasingly entrenched urban-rural divide

Did London 2012 deliver a sports participation legacy?

Despite the increasing academic interest in the analysis of the Olympic legacy, there is a relative knowledge gap as far as sports participation legacy is concerned. The authors bridge this gap by analysing the short-term sports participation legacy of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the adult population in England. By using data from the Active People Survey and considering different sports participation variables and the effect of the economic climate, results demonstrate a positive association with participation from hosting the Games. Participation rates were adjusted to take into account seasonality and changes in the gross domestic product (GDP), accounting in this way for the effect of the recent economic recession. The biggest effect was observed in relation to frequent participation (at least three times per week for at least 30 minutes) in the year immediately after the Games. In 2014, the sports participation rates fell relative to 2013 but remained higher than pre-Olympic levels. The sport participation legacy of the Olympic Games appeared to have significant differences between socio-demographic groups