Real-time risk analysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold

Mechanical Systems: Symmetry and Reduction

Reduction theory is concerned with mechanical systems with symmetries. It constructs a lower dimensional reduced space in which associated conservation laws are taken out and symmetries are \factored out" and studies the relation between the dynamics of the given system with the dynamics on the reduced space. This subject is important in many areas, such as stability of relative equilibria, geometric phases and integrable systems

Toward validation of simulated accelerograms via prediction equations for nonlinear SDOF response

Seismic structural risk analysis of critical facilities may require nonlinear dynamic analysis for which record selection is one of the key issues. Notwithstanding the increasing availability of database of strong-motion records, it may be hard to find accelerograms that fit a specific scenario (e.g., in terms of magnitude and distance) resulting from hazard assessment at the site of interest. A possible, alternative, approach can be the use of artificial and/or simulated ground motion in lieu of real records. Their employment requires systematic engineering validation in terms of structural response and/or seismic risk. Prediction equations for peak and cyclic inelastic single degree of freedom systems’ response, based on Italian accelerometric data, are discussed in this study as a possible benchmark, alongside real record counterparts, for the validation of synthetic records. Even if multiple events would be in principle required, an extremely preliminary validation is carried out considering only four simulated records of the 1980 Irpinia (southern Italy) M w 6.9 earthquake. Simulated records are obtained through a broadband hybrid integral-composite technique. Results show how this simulation method may lead to generally acceptable results. It is also emphasized how this kind of validation may provide additional results with respect to classical signal-to-signal comparison of real and simulated records

Melatonin in wake-sleep disorders in children, adolescents and young adults with mental retardation with or without epilepsy: a double-blind, cross-over, placebo-controlled trial

The aim of the present study was to verify the clinical efficacy of melatonin (MLT) in children, adolescents and young adults with wake– sleep disorder and mental retardation, most of them on chronic anticonvulsant therapy for epileptic seizures, by means of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over trial. Twenty-five patients (16 males, nine females), aged from 3.6 to 26 years (mean 10.5 years), all affected with mental retardation mostly with epileptic seizures, were randomized to oral synthetic fast-release MLT or placebo. Melatonin was initiated at the daily dose of 3 mg, at nocturnal bedtime. In case of inefficacy, MLT dose could be titrated up to 9 mg the following 2 weeks at increments of 3 mg/week, unless the patient was unable to tolerate it. The analysis of all the sleep logs disclosed a significant treatment effect of melatonin on sleep latency (P ¼ 0:019). Melatonin was well tolerated in all patients and no side effects were reported. In conclusion, our study supports the efficacy of MLT in young patients with mental disabilities and epileptic seizures in improving the wake– sleep disorders such as time to fall asleep. Overall, MLT appeared to influence the seizure frequency poorly, though there may be occasional seizure worsening or improving. Such a dual effect requires further studies in young epileptic patients

REAL-TIME HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold

Real-time risk analysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold

Clues of wildfire-induced geotechnical changes in volcanic soils affected by post-fire slope instabilities

Wildfires can significantly affect mountain hillslopes through the combustion of trees and shrubs and changes in soil properties. The type and magnitude of the associated post-fire effects depend on several factors, including fire severity and soil physical-mechanical-hydraulic features that, coupled with climate and topographic conditions, may cause increased runoff, erosion, and slope instability as consequence of intense rainfall. The post-fire response of slopes is highly site-specific. Therefore, in situ surveys and laboratory tests are needed to quantify changes in key soil parameters. The present study documents the post-fire physical and hydromechanical properties of pyroclastic topsoil collected from three test sites that suffered wildfires and rainfall-induced post-fire events in 2019 and 2020 in the Sarno Mountains (Campania Region, southern Italy). The tested pyroclastic soils in burned conditions show (i) no significant changes in grain size distribution, soil organic matter, and specific gravity; (ii) a deterioration in shear strength in terms of decreased soil cohesion caused by the fire-induced weakening of root systems; and (iii) a decrease in hydraulic conductivity. Accordingly, it can be argued that the documented post-fire erosion responses were mainly caused by the reduced cohesion and hydraulic conductivity of the burned topsoil layer, as well as by the loss of vegetation cover and the deposition of fire residues. Although deserving further deepening, this study can represent the necessary background for understanding the initiation mechanism of post-fire erosion processes in the analyzed area and on several natural slopes under similar conditions

"bisphenol a: An emerging threat to male fertility"

Background: Among the factors causing male infertility, one of the most debated is the exposure to environmental contaminants. Recently, the chemical compound Bisphenol A (BPA) has drawn attention from the reproductive science community, due to its ubiquitous presence in day-to-day life. Its toxic action appears to mainly affect the male reproductive system, directly impacting male fertility. Main: The purpose of this review is to investigate current research data on BPA, providing an overview of the findings obtained from studies in animal and human models, as well as on its supposed mechanisms of action. Conclusion: A clear understanding of BPA action mechanisms, as well as the presumed risks deriving from its exposure, is becoming crucial to preserve male fertility. The development and validation of methodologies to detect BPA toxic effects on reproductive organs can provide greater awareness of the potential threat that this chemical represents

WATER\u2013BUDGET AS A TOOL TO EVALUATE THE SUSTAINABLE USE OF GROUNDWATER RESOURCES (ISONZO PLAIN, NE ITALY)

Water budget, hydrogeology, Soča/Isonzo River, climate chang

Evaluation of endogenous miRNA reference genes across different zebrafish strains, developmental stages and kidney disease models

The majority of kidney diseases arise from the loss of podocytes and from morphological changes of their highly complex foot process architecture, which inevitably leads to a reduced kidney filtration and total loss of kidney function. It could have been shown that microRNAs (miRs) play a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of podocyte-associated kidney diseases. Due to their fully functioning pronephric kidney, larval zebrafish have become a popular vertebrate model, to study kidney diseases in vivo. Unfortunately, there is no consensus about a proper normalization strategy of RT-qPCR-based miRNA expression data in zebrafish. In this study we analyzed 9 preselected candidates dre-miR-92a-3p, dre-miR-206-3p, dre-miR-99-1, dre-miR-92b-3p, dre-miR-363-3p, dre-let-7e, dre-miR-454a, dre-miR-30c-5p, dre-miR-126a-5p for their capability as endogenous reference genes in zebrafish experiments. Expression levels of potential candidates were measured in 3 different zebrafish strains, different developmental stages, and in different kidney disease models by RT-qPCR. Expression values were analyzed with NormFinder, BestKeeper, GeNorm, and DeltaCt and were tested for inter-group differences. All candidates show an abundant expression throughout all samples and relatively high stability. The most stable candidate without significant inter-group differences was dre-miR-92b-3p making it a suitable endogenous reference gene for RT-qPCR-based miR expression zebrafish studies