Bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis of the relationship between circulating vitamin D concentration and colorectal cancer risk

Epidemiological evidence is consistent with a protective effect of vitamin D against colorectal cancer (CRC), but the observed strong associations are open to confounders and potential reverse causation. Previous Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies were limited by poor genetic instruments and inadequate statistical power. Moreover, whether genetically higher CRC risk can influence vitamin D level, namely the reverse causation, still remains unknown. Herein, we report the first bidirectional MR study. We employed 110 newly identified genetic variants as proxies for vitamin D to obtain unconfounded effect estimates on CRC risk in 26 397 CRC cases and 41 481 controls of European ancestry. To test for reserve causation, we estimated effects of 115 CRC-risk variants on vitamin D level among 417 580 participants from the UK Biobank. The causal association was estimated using the random-effect inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. We found no significant causal effect of vitamin D on CRC risk [IVW estimate odds ratio: 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.88-1.07, P = .565]. Similarly, no significant reverse causal association was identified between genetically increased CRC risk and vitamin D levels (IVW estimate β: -0.002, 95% CI = -0.008 to 0.004, P = .543). Stratified analysis by tumour sites did not identify significant causal associations in either direction between vitamin D and colon or rectal cancer. Despite the improved statistical power of this study, we found no evidence of causal association of either direction between circulating vitamin D and CRC risk. Significant associations reported by observational studies may be primarily driven by unidentified confounders

A Novel Test for Gene-Ancestry Interactions in Genome-Wide Association Data

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data on a disease are increasingly available from multiple related populations. In this scenario, meta-analyses can improve power to detect homogeneous genetic associations, but if there exist ancestry-specific effects, via interactions on genetic background or with a causal effect that co-varies with genetic background, then these will typically be obscured. To address this issue, we have developed a robust statistical method for detecting susceptibility gene-ancestry interactions in multi-cohort GWAS based on closely-related populations. We use the leading principal components of the empirical genotype matrix to cluster individuals into “ancestry groups” and then look for evidence of heterogeneous genetic associations with disease or other trait across these clusters. Robustness is improved when there are multiple cohorts, as the signal from true gene-ancestry interactions can then be distinguished from gene-collection artefacts by comparing the observed interaction effect sizes in collection groups relative to ancestry groups. When applied to colorectal cancer, we identified a missense polymorphism in iron-absorption gene CYBRD1 that associated with disease in individuals of English, but not Scottish, ancestry. The association replicated in two additional, independently-collected data sets. Our method can be used to detect associations between genetic variants and disease that have been obscured by population genetic heterogeneity. It can be readily extended to the identification of genetic interactions on other covariates such as measured environmental exposures. We envisage our methodology being of particular interest to researchers with existing GWAS data, as ancestry groups can be easily defined and thus tested for interactions

Exploring causality in the association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer risk:a large Mendelian randomisation study

Background: Whilst observational studies establish that lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) levels are associated with higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), establishing causality has proven challenging. Since vitamin D is modifiable, these observations have substantial clinical and public health implications. Indeed, many health agencies already recommend supplemental vitamin D. Here, we explore causality in a large Mendelian randomisation (MR) study using an improved genetic instrument for circulating 25-OHD. Methods: We developed a weighted genetic score for circulating 25-OHD using six genetic variants that we recently reported to be associated with circulating 25-OHD in a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis. Using this score as instrumental variable in MR analyses, we sought to determine whether circulating 25-OHD is causally linked with CRC risk We conducted MR analysis using individual-level data from 10,725 CRC cases and 30,794 controls (Scotland, UK Biobank and Croatia). We then applied estimates from meta-analysis of 11 GWAS of CRC risk (18,967 cases; 48,168 controls) in a summary statistics MR approach. Results: The new genetic score for 25-OHD was strongly associated with measured plasma 25-OHD levels in 2821 healthy Scottish controls (P = 1.47 x 10(-11)), improving upon previous genetic instruments (F-statistic 46.0 vs. 13.0). However, individual-level MR revealed no association between 25-OHD score and CRC risk (OR 1.03/unit log-transformed circulating 25-OHD, 95% CI 0.51-2.07, P= 0.93). Similarly, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between 25-OHD and CRC risk using summary statistics MR analysis (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.69-1.19, P= 0.48). Conclusions: Despite the scale of this study and employing an improved score capturing more of the genetic contribution to circulating 25-OHD, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between circulating 25-OHD and CRC risk Although the magnitude of effect for vitamin D suggested by observational studies can confidently be excluded, smaller effects sizes and non-linear relationships remain plausible. Circulating vitamin D may be a CRC biomarker, but a causal effect on CRC risk remains unproven

Effect of a reduction in glomerular filtration rate after nephrectomy on arterial stiffness and central hemodynamics: rationale and design of the EARNEST study

Background: There is strong evidence of an association between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease. To date, however, proof that a reduction in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is a causative factor in cardiovascular disease is lacking. Kidney donors comprise a highly screened population without risk factors such as diabetes and inflammation, which invariably confound the association between CKD and cardiovascular disease. There is strong evidence that increased arterial stiffness and left ventricular hypertrophy and fibrosis, rather than atherosclerotic disease, mediate the adverse cardiovascular effects of CKD. The expanding practice of live kidney donation provides a unique opportunity to study the cardiovascular effects of an isolated reduction in GFR in a prospective fashion. At the same time, the proposed study will address ongoing safety concerns that persist because most longitudinal outcome studies have been undertaken at single centers and compared donor cohorts with an inappropriately selected control group.<p></p> Hypotheses: The reduction in GFR accompanying uninephrectomy causes (1) a pressure-independent increase in aortic stiffness (aortic pulse wave velocity) and (2) an increase in peripheral and central blood pressure.<p></p> Methods: This is a prospective, multicenter, longitudinal, parallel group study of 440 living kidney donors and 440 healthy controls. All controls will be eligible for living kidney donation using current UK transplant criteria. Investigations will be performed at baseline and repeated at 12 months in the first instance. These include measurement of arterial stiffness using applanation tonometry to determine pulse wave velocity and pulse wave analysis, office blood pressure, 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, and a series of biomarkers for cardiovascular and bone mineral disease.<p></p> Conclusions: These data will prove valuable by characterizing the direction of causality between cardiovascular and renal disease. This should help inform whether targeting reduced GFR alongside more traditional cardiovascular risk factors is warranted. In addition, this study will contribute important safety data on living kidney donors by providing a longitudinal assessment of well-validated surrogate markers of cardiovascular disease, namely, blood pressure and arterial stiffness. If any adverse effects are detected, these may be potentially reversed with the early introduction of targeted therapy. This should ensure that kidney donors do not come to long-term harm and thereby preserve the ongoing expansion of the living donor transplant program.<p></p&gt

Systematic search for enhancer elements and somatic allelic imbalance at seven low-penetrance colorectal cancer predisposition loci

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Prognostic Significance of POLE Proofreading Mutations in Endometrial Cancer

Background: Current risk stratification in endometrial cancer (EC) results in frequent over- and underuse of adjuvant therapy, and may be improved by novel biomarkers. We examined whether POLE proofreading mutations, recently reported in about 7% of ECs, predict prognosis. Methods: We performed targeted POLE sequencing in ECs from the PORTEC-1 and -2 trials (n = 788), and analyzed clinical outcome according to POLE status. We combined these results with those from three additional series (n = 628) by meta-analysis to generate multivariable-adjusted, pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of POLE-mutant ECs. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: POLE mutations were detected in 48 of 788 (6.1%) ECs from PORTEC-1 and-2 and were associated with high tumor grade (P < .001). Women with POLE-mutant ECs had fewer recurrences (6.2% vs 14.1%) and EC deaths (2.3% vs 9.7%), though, in the total PORTEC cohort, differences in RFS and CSS were not statistically significant (multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.13 to 1.37, P = .15; HR = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.03 to 1.44, P = .11 respectively). However, of 109 grade 3 tumors, 0 of 15 POLE-mutant ECs recurred, compared with 29 of 94 (30.9%) POLE wild-type cancers; reflected in statistically significantly greater RFS (multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.001 to 0.84, P = .03). In the additional series, there were no EC-related events in any of 33 POLE-mutant ECs, resulting in a multivariable-adjusted, pooled HR of 0.33 for RFS (95% CI = 0.12 to 0.91, P = .03) and 0.26 for CSS (95% CI = 0.06 to 1.08, P = .06). Conclusion: POLE proofreading mutations predict favorable EC prognosis, independently of other clinicopathological variables, with the greatest effect seen in high-grade tumors. This novel biomarker may help to reduce overtreatment in E

Modifiable pathways for colorectal cancer : a mendelian randomisation analysis

Background Epidemiological studies have linked lifestyle, cardiometabolic, reproductive, developmental, and inflammatory factors to the risk of colorectal cancer. However, which specific factors affect risk and the strength of these effects are unknown. We aimed to examine the relationship between potentially modifiable risk factors and colorectal cancer. Methods We used a random-effects model to examine the relationship between 39 potentially modifiable risk factors and colorectal cancer in 26 397 patients with colorectal cancer and 41 481 controls (ie, people without colorectal cancer). These population data came from a genome-wide association study of people of European ancestry, which was amended to exclude UK BioBank data. In the model, we used genetic variants as instruments via two-sample mendelian randomisation to limit bias from confounding and reverse causation. We calculated odds ratios per genetically predicted SD unit increase in each putative risk factor (OR SD) for colorectal cancer risk. We did mendelian randomisation Egger regressions to identify evidence of potential violations of mendelian randomisation assumptions. A Bonferroni-corrected threshold of p=1.3 x 10(-3) was considered significant, and p values less than 0.05 were considered to be suggestive of an association. Findings No putative risk factors were significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk after correction for multiple testing. However, suggestive associations with increased risk were noted for genetically predicted body fat percentage (OR SD 1.14 [95% CI 1.03-1.25]; p=0.0086), body-mass index (1.09 [1.01-1.17]; p=0.023), waist circumference (1.13 [1.02-1.26]; p=0.018), basal metabolic rate (1.10 [1.03-1.18]; p=0.0079), and concentrations of LDL cholesterol (1.14 [1.04-1.25]; p=0.0056), total cholesterol (1.09 [1.01-1.18]; p=0.025), circulating serum iron (1.17 [1.00-1.36]; p=0.049), and serum vitamin B12 (1.21 [1.04-1.42]; p=0.016), although potential pleiotropy among genetic variants used as instruments for vitamin B12 constrains the finding. A suggestive association was also noted between adult height and increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR SD 1.04 [95% CI 1.00-1.08]; p=0.032). Low blood selenium concentration had a suggestive association with decreased risk of colorectal cancer (OR SD 0.85 [95% CI 0.75-0.96]; p=0.0078) based on a single variant, as did plasma concentrations of interleukin-6 receptor subunit a (also based on a single variant; 0.98 [0.96-1.00]; p=0.035). Risk of colorectal cancer was not associated with any sex hormone or reproductive factor, serum calcium, or circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations. Interpretation This analysis identified several modifiable targets for primary prevention of colorectal cancer, including lifestyle, obesity, and cardiometabolic factors, that should inform public health policy. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe