Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures

© 2017 Elsevier Inc. The concept of resilience is a crucial part in crafting visions of desirable futures designed to withstand the widest variety of external shocks to the system. Backcasting scenarios are widely used to envision desirable futures with a discontinuous change from the present in mind. However, less effort has been devoted to developing theoretical frameworks and methods for building backcasting scenarios with a particular focus on resilience, although resilience has been explored in related sustainability fields. This paper proposes a method that helps design backcasting scenarios for resilient futures. A characteristic of the method is to delineate “collapse” futures, based upon which resilient futures are described to avoid the various collapsed states. In the process of designing backcasting scenarios, fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to support the generation of various risk factors and countermeasures to improve resilience. In order to test the effectiveness of the proposed method, we provide a case study to describe resilient energy systems for a Japanese community to 2030. Four expert workshops involving researchers from different disciplines were organized to generate diversified ideas on resilient energy systems. The results show that three scenarios of collapsed energy systems were described, in which policy options to be taken toward achieving resilient energy systems were derived

Co-evolution of eukaryotes and ocean oxygenation in the Neoproterozoic era

The Neoproterozoic era (about 1,000 to 542 million years ago) was a time of turbulent environmental change. Large fluctuations in the carbon cycle were associated with at least two severe-possible Snowball Earth-glaciations. There were also massive changes in the redox state of the oceans, culminating in the oxygenation of much of the deep oceans. Amid this environmental change, increasingly complex life forms evolved. The traditional view is that a rise in atmospheric oxygen concentrations led to the oxygenation of the ocean, thus triggering the evolution of animals. We argue instead that the evolution of increasingly complex eukaryotes, including the first animals, could have oxygenated the ocean without requiring an increase in atmospheric oxygen. We propose that large eukaryotic particles sank quickly through the water column and reduced the consumption of oxygen in the surface waters. Combined with the advent of benthic filter feeding, this shifted oxygen demand away from the surface to greater depths and into sediments, allowing oxygen to reach deeper waters. The decline in bottom-water anoxia would hinder the release of phosphorus from sediments, potentially triggering a potent positive feedback: phosphorus removal from the ocean reduced global productivity and ocean-wide oxygen demand, resulting in oxygenation of the deep ocean. That, in turn, would have further reinforced eukaryote evolution, phosphorus removal and ocean oxygenation

The relationships between tropical Atlantic sea level variability and major climate indices

Relationships were examined between variability in tropical Atlantic sea level and major climate indices with the use of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter and island tide gauge data with the aim of learning more about the external influences on the variability of the tropical Atlantic ocean. Possible important connections were found between indices related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea levels in all three tropical regions (north, equatorial, and south), although the existence of only one major ENSO event within the decade of available altimetry means that a more complete investigation of the ENSO-dependence of Atlantic sea level changes has to await for the compilation of longer data sets. An additional link was found with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the equatorial region, this perhaps surprising observation is probably an artifact of the similarity between IOD and ENSO time series in the 1990s. No evidence was obtained for significant correlations between tropical Atlantic sea level and North Atlantic Oscillation or Antarctic Oscillation Index. The most intriguing relationship observed was between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and sea level in a band centered approximately on 10°S. A plausible explanation for the relationship is lacking, but possibilities for further research are suggested

Significant contribution of combustion-related emissions to the atmospheric phosphorus budget

International audienc

A safe operating space for humanity

The article presents a study that investigates on the importance of identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries to prevent human activities in affecting environmental condition. The author states the industrial revolution and advancement in human civilization has caused the unstability of the environmental state that is less conducive for humans to live and affect their health condition. The author notes that planetary boundaries served a control variables to secure the safety of its citizen as well as protect the environment from shifting to dangerous levels. It also cites the different planetary boundaries, along with its impact on climate change and Earth system degradation