Value at Risk models with long memory features and their economic performance

We study alternative dynamics for Value at Risk (VaR) that incorporate a slow moving component and information on recent aggregate returns in established quantile (auto) regression models. These models are compared on their economic performance, and also on metrics of first-order importance such as violation ratios. By better economic performance, we mean that changes in the VaR forecasts should have a lower variance to reduce transaction costs and should lead to lower exceedance sizes without raising the average level of the VaR. We find that, in combination with a targeted estimation strategy, our proposed models lead to improved performance in both statistical and economic terms

Upper airways colonisation of Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults aged 60 years and older: A systematic review of prevalence and individual participant data meta-analysis of risk factors

Background: Colonisation with Streptococcus pneumoniae can lead to invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. Pneumococcal acquisition and prevalence of colonisation are high in children. In older adults, a population susceptible to pneumococcal disease, colonisation prevalence is reported to be lower, but studies are heterogeneous. Methods: This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence of, and risk factors for, pneumococcal colonisation in adults ≥ 60 years of age (PROSPERO #42016036891). We identified peer-reviewed studies reporting the prevalence of S. pneumoniae colonisation using MEDLINE and EMBASE (until April 2016), excluding studies of acute disease. Participant-level data on risk factors were sought from each study. Findings: Of 2202 studies screened, 29 were analysable: 18 provided participant-level data (representing 6290 participants). Prevalence of detected pneumococcal colonisation was 0–39% by conventional culture methods and 3–23% by molecular methods. In a multivariate analysis, colonisation was higher in persons from nursing facilities compared with the community (odds ratio (OR) 2•30, 95% CI 1•26–4•21 and OR 7•72, 95% CI 1•15–51•85, respectively), in those who were currently smoking (OR 1•69, 95% CI 1•12–2•53) or those who had regular contact with children (OR 1•93, 95%CI 1•27–2•93). Persons living in urban areas had significantly lower carriage prevalence (OR 0•43, 95%CI 0•27–0•70). Interpretation: Overall prevalence of pneumococcal colonisation in older adults was higher than expected but varied by risk factors. Future studies should further explore risk factors for colonisation, to highlight targets for focussed intervention such as pneumococcal vaccination of high-risk groups. Funding: No funding was required

Comparative Expression Profiling of the Chlamydia trachomatis pmp Gene Family for Clinical and Reference Strains

Chlamydia trachomatis, an obligate intracellular pathogen, is a leading worldwide cause of ocular and urogenital diseases. Advances have been made in our understanding of the nine-member polymorphic membrane protein (Pmp) gene (pmp) family of C. trachomatis. However, there is only limited information on their biologic role, especially for biological variants (biovar) and clinical strains.We evaluated expression for pmps throughout development for reference strains E/Bour and L2/434, representing different biovars, and for clinical E and L2 strains. Immunoreactivity of patient sera to recombinant (r)Pmps was also determined. All pmps were expressed at two hours. pmpA had the lowest expression but was up-regulated at 12 h for all strains, indicating involvement in reticulate body development. For pmpD, expression peaked at 36 h. Additionally, 57.7% of sera from infected and 0% from uninfected adolescents were reactive to rPmpD (p = 0.001), suggesting a role in immunogenicity. pmpF had the highest expression levels for all clinical strains and L2/434 with differential expression of the pmpFE operon for the same strains. Sera were nonreactive to rPmpF despite immunoreactivity to rMOMP and rPmpD, suggesting that PmpF is not associated with humoral immune responses. pmpFE sequences for clinical strains were identical to those of the respective reference strains. We identified the putative pmpFE promoter, which was, surprisingly, 100% conserved for all strains. Analyses of ribosomal binding sites, RNase E, and hairpin structures suggested complex regulatory mechanism(s) for this >6 Kb operon.The dissimilar expression of the same pmp for different C. trachomatis strains may explain different strain-specific needs and phenotypic distinctions. This is further supported by the differential immunoreactivity to rPmpD and rPmpF of sera from patients infected with different strains. Furthermore, clinical E strains did not correlate with the E reference strain at the gene expression level, reinforcing the need for expansive studies of clinical strains

Defining Chlorophyll-a Reference Conditions in European Lakes

The concept of “reference conditions” describes the benchmark against which current conditions are compared when assessing the status of water bodies. In this paper we focus on the establishment of reference conditions for European lakes according to a phytoplankton biomass indicator—the concentration of chlorophyll-a. A mostly spatial approach (selection of existing lakes with no or minor human impact) was used to set the reference conditions for chlorophyll-a values, supplemented by historical data, paleolimnological investigations and modelling. The work resulted in definition of reference conditions and the boundary between “high” and “good” status for 15 main lake types and five ecoregions of Europe: Alpine, Atlantic, Central/Baltic, Mediterranean, and Northern. Additionally, empirical models were developed for estimating site-specific reference chlorophyll-a concentrations from a set of potential predictor variables. The results were recently formulated into the EU legislation, marking the first attempt in international water policy to move from chemical quality standards to ecological quality targets

A Randomized Controlled Phase Ib Trial of the Malaria Vaccine Candidate GMZ2 in African Children

BACKGROUND: GMZ2 is a fusion protein of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein 3 (MSP3) and glutamate rich protein (GLURP) that mediates an immune response against the blood stage of the parasite. Two previous phase I clinical trials, one in naïve European adults and one in malaria-exposed Gabonese adults showed that GMZ2 was well tolerated and immunogenic. Here, we present data on safety and immunogenicity of GMZ2 in one to five year old Gabonese children, a target population for future malaria vaccine efficacy trials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Thirty children one to five years of age were randomized to receive three doses of either 30 µg or 100 µg of GMZ2, or rabies vaccine. GMZ2, adjuvanted in aluminum hydroxide, was administered on Days 0, 28 and 56. All participants received a full course of their respective vaccination and were followed up for one year. Both 30 µg and 100 µg GMZ2 vaccine doses were well tolerated and induced antibodies and memory B-cells against GMZ2 as well as its antigenic constituents MSP3 and GLURP. After three doses of vaccine, the geometric mean concentration of antibodies to GMZ2 was 19-fold (95%CI: 11,34) higher in the 30 µg GMZ2 group than in the rabies vaccine controls, and 16-fold (7,36) higher in the 100 µg GMZ2 group than the rabies group. Geometric mean concentration of antibodies to MSP3 was 2.7-fold (1.6,4.6) higher in the 30 µg group than in the rabies group and 3.8-fold (1.5,9.6) higher in the 100 µg group. Memory B-cells against GMZ2 developed in both GMZ2 vaccinated groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Both 30 µg as well as 100 µg intramuscular GMZ2 are immunogenic, well tolerated, and safe in young, malaria-exposed Gabonese children. This result confirms previous findings in naïve and malaria-exposed adults and supports further clinical development of GMZ2. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00703066

Diversity of Staphylococcus aureus Isolates in European Wildlife

Staphylococcus aureus is a well-known colonizer and cause of infection among animals and it has been described from numerous domestic and wild animal species. The aim of the present study was to investigate the molecular epidemiology of S. aureus in a convenience sample of European wildlife and to review what previously has been observed in the subject field. 124 S. aureus isolates were collected from wildlife in Germany, Austria and Sweden; they were characterized by DNA microarray hybridization and, for isolates with novel hybridization patterns, by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). The isolates were assigned to 29 clonal complexes and singleton sequence types (CC1, CC5, CC6, CC7, CC8, CC9, CC12, CC15, CC22, CC25, CC30, CC49, CC59, CC88, CC97, CC130, CC133, CC398, ST425, CC599, CC692, CC707, ST890, CC1956, ST2425, CC2671, ST2691, CC2767 and ST2963), some of which (ST2425, ST2691, ST2963) were not described previously. Resistance rates in wildlife strains were rather low and mecA-MRSA isolates were rare (n = 6). mecC-MRSA (n = 8) were identified from a fox, a fallow deer, hares and hedgehogs. The common cattle- associated lineages CC479 and CC705 were not detected in wildlife in the present study while, in contrast, a third common cattle lineage, CC97, was found to be common among cervids. No Staphylococcus argenteus or Staphylococcus schweitzeri-like isolates were found. Systematic studies are required to monitor the possible transmission of human- and livestock- associated S. aureus/MRSA to wildlife and vice versa as well as the possible transmission, by unprotected contact to animals. The prevalence of S. aureus/MRSA in wildlife as well as its population structures in different wildlife host species warrants further investigation

Population Structure of Staphylococcus aureus from Remote African Babongo Pygmies

Staphylococcus aureus is a bacterium that colonizes humans worldwide. The anterior nares are its main ecological niche. Carriers of S. aureus are at a higher risk of developing invasive infections. Few reports indicated a different clonal structure and profile of virulence factors in S. aureus isolates from Sub-Saharan Africa. As there are no data about isolates from remote indigenous African populations, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of S. aureus nasal carriage in Gabonese Babongo Pygmies. The isolates were characterized regarding their susceptibility to antibiotic agents, possession of virulence factors and clonal lineage. While similar carriage rates were found in populations of industrialized countries, isolates that encode the genes for the Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) were clearly more prevalent than in European countries. Of interest, many methicillin-susceptible S. aureus isolates from Babongo Pygmies showed the same genetic background as pandemic methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) clones. We advocate a surveillance of S. aureus in neglected African populations to control the development of resistance to antibiotic drugs with particular respect to MRSA and to assess the impact of the high prevalence of PVL-positive isolates