The prognostic value of automated coronary calcium derived by a deep learning approach on non-ECG gated CT images from ⁸²Rb-PET/CT myocardial perfusion imaging

Background: Assessment of both coronary artery calcium(CAC) scores and myocardial perfusion imaging(MPI) in patients suspected of coronary artery disease(CAD) provides incremental prognostic information. We used an automated method to determine CAC scores on low-dose attenuation correction CT(LDACT) images gathered during MPI in one single assessment. The prognostic value of this automated CAC score is unknown, we therefore investigated the association of this automated CAC scores and major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE) in a large chest-pain cohort. Method: We analyzed 747 symptomatic patients referred for 82RubidiumPET/CT, without a history of coronary revascularization. Ischemia was defined as a summed difference score≥2. We used a validated deep learning(DL) method to determine CAC scores. For survival analysis CAC scores were dichotomized as low(90 days after scanning) or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Cox proportional hazard analysis were performed to identify predictors of MACE. Results: During 4 years follow-up, 115 MACEs were observed. High CAC scores showed higher cumulative event rates, irrespective of ischemia (nonischemic: 25.8% vs 11.9% and ischemic: 57.6% vs 23.4%, P-values <0.001). Multivariable cox regression revealed both high CAC scores (HR 2.19 95%CI 1.43–3.35) and ischemia (HR 2.56 95%CI 1.71–3.35) as independent predictors of MACE. Addition of automated CAC scores showed a net reclassification improvement of 0.13(0.022–0.245). Conclusion: Automatically derived CAC scores determined during a single imaging session are independently associated with MACE. This validated DL method could improve risk stratification and subsequently lead to more personalized treatment in patients suspected of CAD

Age- and gender-specific risk of death after first hospitalization for heart failure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is associated with high-in-hospital and short- and long-term post discharge mortality. Age and gender are important predictors of mortality in hospitalized HF patients. However, studies assessing short- and long-term risk of death stratified by age and gender are scarce.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A nationwide cohort was identified (ICD-9 codes 402, 428) and followed through linkage of national registries. The crude 28-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality was computed by age and gender. Cox regression models were used for each period to study sex differences adjusting for potential confounders (age and comorbidities).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>14,529 men, mean age 74 ± 11 years and 14,524 women, mean age 78 ± 11 years were identified. Mortality risk after admission for HF increased with age and the risk of death was higher among men than women. Hazard ratio's (men versus women and adjusted for age and co-morbidity) were 1.21 (95%CI 1.14 to 1.28), 1.26 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.31), and 1.28 (95%CI 1.24 to 1.31) for 28 days, 1 year and 5 years mortality, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study clearly shows age- and gender differences in short- and long-term risk of death after first hospitalization for HF with men having higher short- and long-term risk of death than women. As our study population includes both men and women from all ages, the estimates we provide maybe a good reflection of 'daily practice' risk of death and therefore be valuable for clinicians and policymakers.</p

Prevalence of Symptomatic Heart Failure with Reduced and with Normal Ejection Fraction in an Elderly General Population-The CARLA Study

Background/Objectives: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is one of the most important public health concerns in the industrialized world having increasing incidence and prevalence. Although there are several studies describing the prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF) and heart failure with normal ejection fraction (HFNEF) in selected populations, there are few data regarding the prevalence and the determinants of symptomatic heart failure in the general population. Methods: Cross-sectional data of a population-based German sample (1,779 subjects aged 45-83 years) were analyzed to determine the prevalence and determinants of chronic SHF and HFNEF defined according to the European Society of Cardiology using symptoms, echocardiography and serum NT-proBNP. Prevalence was age-standardized to the German population as of December 31st, 2005. Results: The overall age-standardized prevalence of symptomatic CHF was 7.7% (95%CI 6.0-9.8) for men and 9.0% (95%CI 7.0-11.5) for women. The prevalence of CHF strongly increased with age from 3.0% among 45-54- year-old subjects to 22.0% among 75-83- year-old subjects. Symptomatic HFREF could be shown in 48% (n = 78), symptomatic HFNEF in 52% (n = 85) of subjects with CHF. The age-standardized prevalence of HFREF was 3.8 % (95%CI 2.4-5.8) for women and 4.6 % (95%CI 3.6-6.3) for men. The age-standardized prevalence of HFNEF for women and men was 5.1 % (95%CI 3.8-7.0) and 3.0 % (95%CI 2.1-4.5), respectively. Persons with CHF were more likely to have hypertension (PR = 3.4; 95%CI 1.6-7.3) or to have had a previous myocardial infarction (PR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.8-3.5). Conclusion: The prevalence of symptomatic CHF appears high in this population compared with other studies. While more women were affected by HFNEF than men, more male subjects suffered from HFREF. The high prevalence of symptomatic CHF seems likely to be mainly due to the high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in this population

Diagnostic accuracy of plasma NT-proBNP levels for excluding cardiac abnormalities in the very elderly

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the elderly the diagnosis of chronic heart failure is often challenging and the availability of echocardiography can be limited. Plasma levels of NT-proBNP are valuable tools to diagnose patients with heart failure. However, the performance of this biomarker to detect cardiac abnormalities in the very elderly remains unclear. The aims of this study were to investigate the relation between NT-proBNP and cardiac abnormalities and to evaluate the use of NT-proBNP to exclude structural and functional cardiac abnormalities in a community-based sample of "well-functioning" nonagenarians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A diagnostic cross-sectional study embedded within the Leiden 85-plus Study in the municipality of Leiden, the Netherlands. Plasma NT-proBNP levels were measured and 2-dimensional echocardiography was performed in a subgroup of 80 well-functioning nonagenarians. Linear regression analysis was used to explore the relation between NT-proBNP and cardiac abnormalities and ROC curve analysis was used to assess the performance of NT-proBNP to exclude cardiac abnormalities. The upper limit of the lowest tertile of NT-proBNP was used as a cut-off value.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>NT-proBNP levels were associated with abnormal left ventricular (LV) dimensions, LV systolic and diastolic function, left atrial enlargement and valvular heart disease. LV mass, E/A ratio and degree of aortic regurgitation were identified as independent predictors of NT-proBNP. NT-proBNP levels were higher with greater number of echocardiographic abnormalities (P < 0.001). A cut-off level of 269.5 pg/mL identified patients with abnormal LV dimensions or depressed LV systolic function (sensitivity 85%, negative predictive value (NPV) 77%, area under the curve 0.75 (95% CI 0.64-0.85)). In addition, high NPV were found for LV systolic dysfunction, left atrial enlargement, severe valvular heart disease and pulmonary hypertension. The test performance of NT-proBNP to exclude any echocardiographic abnormality showed a sensitivity of 82% and a NPV of 65%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this convenience sample of well-functioning nonagenarians NT-proBNP was related to a wide variety of functional and structural echocardiographic abnormalities. Moreover, NT-proBNP could be used to exclude echocardiographic abnormalities in well-functioning nonagenarians and might be used to indicate who needs to be referred for further cardiovascular examination.</p

Heart failure and the risk of stroke: the Rotterdam Study

Patients with heart failure used to have an increased risk of stroke, but this may have changed with current treatment regimens. We assessed the association between heart failure and the risk of stroke in a population-based cohort that was followed since 1990. The study uses the cohort of the Rotterdam Study and is based on 7,546 participants who at baseline (1990–1993) were aged 55 years or over and free from stroke. The associations between heart failure and risk of stroke were assessed using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, diabetes mellitus, BMI, ankle brachial index, blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction and relevant medication). At baseline, 233 participants had heart failure. During an average follow-up time of 9.7 years, 1,014 persons developed heart failure, and 827 strokes (470 ischemic, 75 hemorrhagic, 282 unclassified) occurred. The risk of ischemic stroke was more than five-fold increased in the first month after diagnosis of heart failure (age and sex adjusted HR 5.79, 95% CI 2.15–15.62), but attenuated over time (age and sex adjusted HR 3.50 [95% CI 1.96–6.25] after 1–6 months and 0.83 [95% CI 0.53–1.29] after 0.5–6 years). Additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors only marginally attenuated these risks. In conclusion, the risk of ischemic stroke is strongly increased shortly after the diagnosis of heart failure but returns to normal within 6 months after onset of heart failure

Cardiovascular disease, risk factors and heart rate variability in the elderly general population: Design and objectives of the CARdiovascular disease, Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) Study

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the ageing population of industrialized nations requires an intensive search for means of reducing this epidemic. In order to improve prevention, detection, therapy and prognosis of cardiovascular diseases on the population level in Eastern Germany, it is necessary to examine reasons for the East-West gradient of CVD morbidity and mortality, potential causal mechanisms and prognostic factors in the elderly. Psychosocial and nutritional factors have previously been discussed as possible causes for the unexplained part of the East-West gradient. A reduced heart rate variability appears to be associated with cardiovascular disease as well as with psychosocial and other cardiovascular risk factors and decreases with age. Nevertheless, there is a lack of population-based data to examine the role of heart rate variability and its interaction with psychosocial and nutritional factors regarding the effect on cardiovascular disease in the ageing population. There also is a paucity of epidemiological data describing the health situation in Eastern Germany. Therefore, we conduct a population-based study to examine the distribution of CVD, heart rate variability and CVD risk factors and their associations in an elderly East German population. This paper describes the design and objectives of the CARLA Study. METHODS/DESIGN: For this study, a random sample of 45–80 year-old inhabitants of the city of Halle (Saale) in Eastern Germany was drawn from the population registry. By the end of the baseline examination (2002–2005), 1750 study participants will have been examined. A multi-step recruitment strategy aims at achieving a 70 % response rate. Detailed information is collected on own and family medical history, socioeconomic, psychosocial, behavioural and biomedical factors. Medical examinations include anthropometric measures, blood pressure of arm and ankle, a 10-second and a 20-minute electrocardiogram, a general physical examination, an echocardiogram, and laboratory analyses of venous blood samples. On 200 participants, a 24-hour electrocardiogram is recorded. A detailed system of quality control ensures high data quality. A follow-up examination is planned. DISCUSSION: This study will help to elucidate pathways to CVD involving autonomic dysfunction and lifestyle factors which might be responsible for the CVD epidemic in some populations

Blood Signature of Pre-Heart Failure: A Microarrays Study

International audienceBACKGROUND: The preclinical stage of systolic heart failure (HF), known as asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVD), is diagnosed only by echocardiography, frequent in the general population and leads to a high risk of developing severe HF. Large scale screening for ALVD is a difficult task and represents a major unmet clinical challenge that requires the determination of ALVD biomarkers. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 294 individuals were screened by echocardiography. We identified 9 ALVD cases out of 128 subjects with cardiovascular risk factors. White blood cell gene expression profiling was performed using pangenomic microarrays. Data were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) and Significant Analysis of Microarrays (SAM). To build an ALVD classifier model, we used the nearest centroid classification method (NCCM) with the ClaNC software package. Classification performance was determined using the leave-one-out cross-validation method. Blood transcriptome analysis provided a specific molecular signature for ALVD which defined a model based on 7 genes capable of discriminating ALVD cases. Analysis of an ALVD patients validation group demonstrated that these genes are accurate diagnostic predictors for ALVD with 87% accuracy and 100% precision. Furthermore, Receiver Operating Characteristic curves of expression levels confirmed that 6 out of 7 genes discriminate for left ventricular dysfunction classification. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These targets could serve to enhance the ability to efficiently detect ALVD by general care practitioners to facilitate preemptive initiation of medical treatment preventing the development of HF

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. METHODS: The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. RESULTS: The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients

Choice of generic antihypertensive drugs for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease - A cost-effectiveness analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypertension is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A range of antihypertensive drugs exists, and their prices vary widely mainly due to patent rights. The objective of this study was to explore the cost-effectiveness of different generic antihypertensive drugs as first, second and third choice for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used the Norwegian Cardiovascular Disease model (NorCaD) to simulate the cardiovascular life of patients from hypertension without symptoms until they were all dead or 100 years old. The risk of CVD events and costs were based on recent Norwegian sources.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In single-drug treatment, all antihypertensives are cost-effective compared to no drug treatment. In the base-case analysis, the first, second and third choice of antihypertensive were calcium channel blocker, thiazide and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor. However the sensitivity and scenario analyses indicated considerable uncertainty in that angiotensin receptor blockers as well as, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta blockers and thiazides could be the most cost-effective antihypertensive drugs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Generic antihypertensives are cost-effective in a wide range of risk groups. There is considerable uncertainty, however, regarding which drug is the most cost-effective.</p

Non-invasive cardiac assessment in high risk patients (The GROUND study): rationale, objectives and design of a multi-center randomized controlled clinical trial

Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common disease associated with a considerably increased risk of future cardiovascular events and most of these patients will die from coronary artery disease (CAD). Screening for silent CAD has become an option with recent non-invasive developments in CT (computed tomography)-angiography and MR (magnetic resonance) stress testing. Screening in combination with more aggressive treatment may improve prognosis. Therefore we propose to study whether a cardiac imaging algorithm, using non-invasive imaging techniques followed by treatment will reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease in PAD patients free from cardiac symptoms. Design: The GROUND study is designed as a prospective, multi-center, randomized clinical trial. Patients with peripheral arterial disease, but without symptomatic cardiac disease will be asked to participate. All patients receive a proper risk factor management before randomization. Half of the recruited patients will enter the 'control group' and only undergo CT calcium scoring. The other half of the recruited patients (index group) will undergo the non invasive cardiac imaging algorithm followed by evidence-based treatment. First, patients are submitted to CT calcium scoring and CT angiography. Patients with a left main (or equivalent) coronary artery stenosis of > 50% on CT will be referred to a cardiologist without further imaging. All other patients in this group will undergo dobutamine stress magnetic resonance (DSMR) testing. Patients with a DSMR positive for ischemia will also be referred to a cardiologist. These patients are candidates for conventional coronary angiography and cardiac interventions (coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous cardiac interventions (PCI)), if indicated. All participants of the trial will enter a 5 year follow up period for the occurrence of cardiovascular events. Sequential interim analysis will take place. Based on sample size calculations about 1200 patients are needed to detect a 24% reduction in primary outcome. Implications: The GROUND study will provide insight into the question whether non-invasive cardiac imaging reduces the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with peripheral arterial disease, but without symptoms of coronary artery disease. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT0018911