Principles For Aiding Complex Military Decision Making

Paper presented to the Second International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Monterey, Ca.The Tactical Decision Making Under Stress (TADMUS) program is being conducted to apply recent developments in decision theory and human-system interaction technology to the design of a decision support system for enhancing tactical decision making under the highly complex conditions involved in anti-air warfare scenarios in littoral environments. Our goal is to present decision support information in a format that minimizes any mismatches between the cognitive characteristics of the human decision maker and the design and response characteristics of the decision support system. Decision makers are presented with decision support tools which parallel the cognitive strategies they already employ, thus reducing the number of decision making errors. Hence, prototype display development has been based on decision making models postulated by naturalistic decision-making theory. Incorporating current human-system interaction design principles is expected to reduce cognitive processing demands and thereby mitigate decision errors caused by cognitive overload, which have been documented through research and experimentation. Topics include a discussion of: (1) the theoretical background for the TADMUS program; (2) a description of the cognitive tasks performed; (3) the decision support and human- system interaction design principles incorporated to reduce the cognitive processing load on the decision maker; and (4) a brief description of the types of errors made by decision makers and interpretations of the cause of these errors based on the cognitive psychology literature.Funding for the research cited in this paper was received from the Cognitive and Neural Science and Technology Division of the Office of Naval Research

The narrative self, distributed memory, and evocative objects

In this article, I outline various ways in which artifacts are interwoven with autobiographical memory systems and conceptualize what this implies for the self. I first sketch the narrative approach to the self, arguing that who we are as persons is essentially our (unfolding) life story, which, in turn, determines our present beliefs and desires, but also directs our future goals and actions. I then argue that our autobiographical memory is partly anchored in our embodied interactions with an ecology of artifacts in our environment. Lifelogs, photos, videos, journals, diaries, souvenirs, jewelry, books, works of art, and many other meaningful objects trigger and sometimes constitute emotionally-laden autobiographical memories. Autobiographical memory is thus distributed across embodied agents and various environmental structures. To defend this claim, I draw on and integrate distributed cognition theory and empirical research in human-technology interaction. Based on this, I conclude that the self is neither defined by psychological states realized by the brain nor by biological states realized by the organism, but should be seen as a distributed and relational construct

An international laboratory comparison of dissolved organic matter composition by high resolution mass spectrometry: Are we getting the same answer?

High-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) has become a vital tool for dissolved organic matter (DOM) characterization. The upward trend in HRMS analysis of DOM presents challenges in data comparison and interpretation among laboratories operating instruments with differing performance and user operating conditions. It is therefore essential that the community establishes metric ranges and compositional trends for data comparison with reference samples so that data can be robustly compared among research groups. To this end, four identically prepared DOM samples were each measured by 16 laboratories, using 17 commercially purchased instruments, using positive-ion and negative-ion mode electrospray ionization (ESI) HRMS analyses. The instruments identified ~1000 common ions in both negative- and positive-ion modes over a wide range of m/z values and chemical space, as determined by van Krevelen diagrams. Calculated metrics of abundance-weighted average indices (H/C, O/C, aromaticity, and m/z) of the commonly detected ions showed that hydrogen saturation and aromaticity were consistent for each reference sample across the instruments, while average mass and oxygenation were more affected by differences in instrument type and settings. In this paper we present 32 metric values for future benchmarking. The metric values were obtained for the four different parameters from four samples in two ionization modes and can be used in future work to evaluate the performance of HRMS instruments

Fully transformer-based biomarker prediction from colorectal cancer histology: a large-scale multicentric study

Background: Deep learning (DL) can extract predictive and prognostic biomarkers from routine pathology slides in colorectal cancer. For example, a DL test for the diagnosis of microsatellite instability (MSI) in CRC has been approved in 2022. Current approaches rely on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Transformer networks are outperforming CNNs and are replacing them in many applications, but have not been used for biomarker prediction in cancer at a large scale. In addition, most DL approaches have been trained on small patient cohorts, which limits their clinical utility. Methods: In this study, we developed a new fully transformer-based pipeline for end-to-end biomarker prediction from pathology slides. We combine a pre-trained transformer encoder and a transformer network for patch aggregation, capable of yielding single and multi-target prediction at patient level. We train our pipeline on over 9,000 patients from 10 colorectal cancer cohorts. Results: A fully transformer-based approach massively improves the performance, generalizability, data efficiency, and interpretability as compared with current state-of-the-art algorithms. After training on a large multicenter cohort, we achieve a sensitivity of 0.97 with a negative predictive value of 0.99 for MSI prediction on surgical resection specimens. We demonstrate for the first time that resection specimen-only training reaches clinical-grade performance on endoscopic biopsy tissue, solving a long-standing diagnostic problem. Interpretation: A fully transformer-based end-to-end pipeline trained on thousands of pathology slides yields clinical-grade performance for biomarker prediction on surgical resections and biopsies. Our new methods are freely available under an open source license

A Key Marine Diazotroph in a Changing Ocean: The Interacting Effects of Temperature, CO2 and Light on the Growth of Trichodesmium erythraeum IMS101

Trichodesmium is a globally important marine diazotroph that accounts for approximately 60-80% of marine biological N2 fixation and as such plays a key role in marine N and C cycles. We undertook a comprehensive assessment of how the growth rate of Trichodesmium erythraeum IMS101 was directly affected by the combined interactions of temperature, pCO2 and light intensity. Our key findings were: low pCO2 affected the lower temperature tolerance limit (Tmin) but had no effect on the optimum temperature (Topt) at which growth was maximal or the maximum temperature tolerance limit (Tmax); low pCO2 had a greater effect on the thermal niche width than low-light; the effect of pCO2 on growth rate was more pronounced at suboptimal temperatures than at supraoptimal temperatures; temperature and light had a stronger effect on the photosynthetic efficiency (Fv/Fm) than did CO2; and at Topt, the maximum growth rate increased with increasing CO2, but the initial slope of the growth-irradiance curve was not affected by CO2. In the context of environmental change, our results suggest that the (i) nutrient replete growth rate of Trichodesmium IMS101 would have been severely limited by low pCO2 at the last glacial maximum (LGM), (ii) future increases in pCO2 will increase growth rates in areas where temperature ranges between Tmin to Topt, but will have negligible effect at temperatures between Topt and Tmax, (iii) areal increase of warm surface waters (> 18°C) has allowed the geographic range to increase significantly from the LGM to present and that the range will continue to expand to higher latitudes with continued warming, but (iv) continued global warming may exclude Trichodesmium spp. from some tropical regions by 2100 where temperature exceeds Topt

Does agri-environmental management enhance biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services?: A farm-scale experiment

Agri-environmental management has been promoted as an approach to enhance delivery of multiple ecosystem services. Most agri-environment agreements include several actions that the farmer agrees to put in place. But, most studies have only considered how individual agri-environmental actions affect particular ecosystem services. Thus, there is little understanding of how the range of agri-environmental actions available to a farmer might be deployed on any individual farm to enhance multiple services. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out an experimental study in which we deployed a set of agri-environmental actions on a commercial farm in southern England. Agri-environmental actions comprised wildflower margins and fallow areas in arable fields, creating and enhancing grassland with wildflowers, and digging ponds. Alongside biodiversity responses, we measured effects on a number of ecosystem services: pollination, pest control, crop and forage yield, water quality, climate regulation and cultural services. Wildflower margins enhanced invertebrates, pest control and crop yield, and aesthetic appeal. A greater number of pollinators was linked to enhanced oilseed rape yield. But these margins and the fallows did not prevent run-off of nutrients and sediment into waterways, and showed limited carbon sequestration or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Newly-dug ponds captured large amounts of sediment and provided aesthetic appeal. Grasslands had higher soil carbon content and microbial biomass, lower N20 emissions, and net sequestration of carbon compared to arable land. Enhancement of grassland plant diversity increased forage quality and aesthetic appeal. Visitors and residents valued a range of agri-environmental features and biodiversity across the farm. Our findings suggest one cannot necessarily expect any particular agri-environmental action will enhance all of a hoped-for set of ecosystem services in any particular setting. A bet-hedging strategy would be for farmers to apply a suite of options to deliver a range of ecosystem service benefits, rather than assuming that one or two options will work as catch-all solutions

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700