Half a million excess deaths in the Iraq war:Terms and conditions may apply

Hagopian et al. (2013) published a headline-grabbing estimate for the Iraq war of half a million excess deaths , i.e. deaths that would not have happened without the war. We reanalyse the data from the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study and refute their dramatic claim. The Hagopian et al. (2013) estimate has four main defects: i) most importantly, it conflates non-violent deaths with violent ones; ii) it fails to account for the stratified sampling design of the UCIMS; iii) it fully includes all reported deaths regardless of death certificate backing, even when respondents say they have a death certificate but cannot produce one when prompted; iv) it adds approximately 100,000 speculative deaths not supported by data. Thus, we reject the 500,000 estimate. Indeed, we find that the UCIMS data cannot even support a claim that the number of non-violent excess deaths in the Iraq war has been greater than zero. We recommend future research to follow our methodological lead in two main directions; supplement traditional excess death estimates with excess death estimates for non-violent deaths alone, and use differences-in-differences estimates to uncover the relationship between violence and non-violent death rates

Dividend Stickiness in Japan

markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper describes the introduction of an emphasis on ‘personal security’ in human security thinking and practice, as part of the ultimately unsuccessful attempt to compartmentalize the pursuit of security. It reviews the past twenty years of attention to ‘personal security’: both in compartments that consider organized physical violence or threats to personal safety and property (‘citizen security’), and as parts of more wide-ranging examination of threats to fulfilment of basic needs and rights, for example in comprehensive mapping exercises undertaken in various UNDP Regional and National Human Development Reports or in studies of women’s security. The paper reflects on the complex process of opening-up conventional security thinking and practice, seeking value-added and depth without shrinking into preconceived compartments

The global burden of injury: Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the global burden of disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disabilityadjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for illdefined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made

Diamond industry annual review, 2004 : Sierra Leone

Available in English onl

MiniAtlas of human security

Editorial consultant: Jon Tinker, Panos Institute of CanadaFrench version available in IDRC Digital Library: MiniAtlas de la sécurité humaineSpanish version available in IDRC Digital Library: MiniAtlas de seguridad humanaThis at-a-glance guide to global security provides a wealth of information on armed conflicts since 1946. It maps political violence, the links between poverty and conflict, assaults on human rights – including the use of child soldiers – and the causes of war and peace. Extraordinar y changes have taken place since the end of the Cold War. Despite the escalating violence in Iraq, and the widening war in Dar fur, there has been a decline in armed conflict worldwide. The number of battle-deaths, genocides and refugees has also decreased. Many of these changes can be attributed to international activism – spearheaded by the UN – that seeks to stop ongoing wars, help negotiate peace settlements, support post-conflict reconstruction, and prevent old wars from flaring up again. Specially designed to show detailed information on a small scale, this miniAtlas of Human Security is a succinct introduction to today’s most pressing security challenges