Interest Rates, Money Supply Announcements, and Monetary Base Announcements

This paper presents a new set of empirical regularities on the link between interest rates, money supply announcements and monetary base announcements. Among the main findings reported are: (i) unexpected increases in the announced monetary base have a significantly positive effect on interest rates during the period from October 1979 to October 1982; (ii) although unexpected money supply and monetary base announcements have the same impact on interest rates, they have different implications for the future behavior of the money supply and monetary base; (iii) the significant response of longer-term interest rates to unexpected monetary announcements is reflecting a response of current and expected future short-term rates -- i.e.term-structure premia are not altered by these announcements.

Natural Selection and Morphological Variability: The Case of Europe From Neolithic to Modern Times [Comment]

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/20200

Genome-Wide Association Study and Gene Expression Analysis Identifies CD84 as a Predictor of Response to Etanercept Therapy in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNF) biologic therapy is a widely used treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is unknown why some RA patients fail to respond adequately to anti-TNF therapy, which limits the development of clinical biomarkers to predict response or new drugs to target refractory cases. To understand the biological basis of response to anti-TNF therapy, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of more than 2 million common variants in 2,706 RA patients from 13 different collections. Patients were treated with one of three anti-TNF medications: etanercept (n = 733), infliximab (n = 894), or adalimumab (n = 1,071). We identified a SNP (rs6427528) at the 1q23 locus that was associated with change in disease activity score (ΔDAS) in the etanercept subset of patients (P = 8×10-8), but not in the infliximab or adalimumab subsets (P>0.05). The SNP is predicted to disrupt transcription factor binding site motifs in the 3′ UTR of an immune-related gene, CD84, and the allele associated with better response to etanercept was associated with higher CD84 gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (P = 1×10-11 in 228 non-RA patients and P = 0.004 in 132 RA patients). Consistent with the genetic findings, higher CD84 gene expression correlated with lower cross-sectional DAS (P = 0.02, n = 210) and showed a non-significant trend for better ΔDAS in a subset of RA patients with gene expression data (n = 31, etanercept-treated). A small, multi-ethnic replication showed a non-significant trend towards an association among etanercept-treated RA patients of Portuguese ancestry (n = 139, P = 0.4), but no association among patients of Japanese ancestry (n = 151, P = 0.8). Our study demonstrates that an allele associated with response to etanercept therapy is also associated with CD84 gene expression, and further that CD84 expression correlates with disease activity. These findings support a model in which CD84 genotypes and/or expression may serve as a useful biomarker for response to etanercept treatment in RA patients of European ancestry. © 2013 Cui et al

Wisdom for Leading through Changes in Worship in Diverse Communities

Is your worshiping community facing change in worship and looking for wisdom and advice? Do you believe change is needed in your worship and wonder how to initiate it in healthy ways? In this session a panel of leaders who have introduced and managed change in worship in very different worshiping communities will share their wisdom, stories and best practices. From smaller and larger churches and universities, these leaders have experienced the joys and challenges of leading authentic worship in changing communities that vary denominationally, racially, in size, and in local context. The panel will be moderated by Kathy Smith, manager for the Vital Worship Grants Program, and will include representatives of two universities and two congregations that have engaged in Vital Worship grant projects

Long-term quality of life in adult survivors of pediatric differentiated thyroid carcinoma

Context: Little is known about long-term quality of life (QoL) of survivors of pediatric differentiated thyroid carcinoma. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate generic health-related QoL (HRQoL), fatigue, anxiety, and depression in these survivors compared with matched controls, and to evaluate thyroid cancer–specific HRQoL in survivors only. Design: Survivors diagnosed between 1970 and 2013 at age #18 years, were included. Exclusion criteria were a follow-up ,5 years, attained age ,18 years, or diagnosis of DTC as a second malignant neoplasm (SMN). Controls were matched by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Survivors and controls were asked to complete 3 questionnaires [Short-Form 36 (HRQoL), Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory 20 (fatigue), and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (anxiety/depression)]. Survivors completed a thyroid cancer–specific HRQoL questionnaire. Results: Sixty-seven survivors and 56 controls. Median age of survivors at evaluation was 34.2 years (range, 18.8 to 61.7). Median follow-up was 17.8 years (range, 5.0 to 44.7). On most QoL subscales, scores of survivors and controls did not differ significantly. However, survivors had more physical problems (P = 0.031), role limitations due to physical problems (P = 0.021), and mental fatigue (P = 0.016) than controls. Some thyroid cancer–specific complaints (e.g., sensory complaints and chilliness) were present in survivors. Unemployment and more extensive disease or treatment characteristics were most frequently associated with worse QoL. Conclusions: Overall, long-term QoL in survivors of pediatric DTC was normal. Survivors experienced mild impairment of QoL in some domains (physical problems, mental fatigue, and various thyroid cancer–specific complaints). Factors possibly affecting QoL need further exploration

Testing The Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a vector of sample autocorrelations of regression residuals from a quite general linear model. The asymptotic distribution forms the basis for a test of the null hypothesis that the regression error follows a moving average of order q [greaterthan or equal] 0 against the general alternative that autocorrelations of the regression error are non-zero at lags greater than q. By allowing for endogenous, predetermined and/or exogenous regressors, for estimation by either ordinary least squares or a number of instrumental variables techniques, for the case q>0, and for a conditionally heteroscedastic error term, the test described here is applicable in a variety of situations where such popular tests as the Box-Pierce (1970) test, Durbin's (1970) h test, and Godfrey's (1978b) Lagrange multiplier test are net applicable. The finite sample properties of the test are examined in Monte Carlo simulations where, with a sample sizes of 50 and 100 observations, the test appears to be quite reliable.

The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run

Nominal exchange rates do not move to offset differences in inflation rates on a month to month, quarter to quarter, or even year to year basis, resulting in sizable real exchange rate changes. Are these changes predictable? We address this question in three ways. First, we describe a variety of tests of predictability and explain how the different tests are related. Next, we implement the tests for the U.S. dollar relative to four currencies and find statistically significant evidence that real exchange rate changes are predictable. Finally, we examine whether the predictability is of an economically interesting magnitude.

High density genetic mapping identifies new susceptibility loci for rheumatoid arthritis

Summary Using the Immunochip custom single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array, designed for dense genotyping of 186 genome wide association study (GWAS) confirmed loci we analysed 11,475 rheumatoid arthritis cases of European ancestry and 15,870 controls for 129,464 markers. The data were combined in meta-analysis with GWAS data from additional independent cases (n=2,363) and controls (n=17,872). We identified fourteen novel loci; nine were associated with rheumatoid arthritis overall and 5 specifically in anti-citrillunated peptide antibody positive disease, bringing the number of confirmed European ancestry rheumatoid arthritis loci to 46. We refined the peak of association to a single gene for 19 loci, identified secondary independent effects at six loci and association to low frequency variants (minor allele frequency <0.05) at 4 loci. Bioinformatic analysis of the data generated strong hypotheses for the causal SNP at seven loci. This study illustrates the advantages of dense SNP mapping analysis to inform subsequent functional investigations

Genetics of rheumatoid arthritis contributes to biology and drug discovery

A major challenge in human genetics is to devise a systematic strategy to integrate disease-associated variants with diverse genomic and biological datasets to provide insight into disease pathogenesis and guide drug discovery for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA)1. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis in a total of >100,000 subjects of European and Asian ancestries (29,880 RA cases and 73,758 controls), by evaluating ~10 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We discovered 42 novel RA risk loci at a genome-wide level of significance, bringing the total to 1012–4. We devised an in-silico pipeline using established bioinformatics methods based on functional annotation5, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTL)6, and pathway analyses7–9 – as well as novel methods based on genetic overlap with human primary immunodeficiency (PID), hematological cancer somatic mutations and knock-out mouse phenotypes – to identify 98 biological candidate genes at these 101 risk loci. We demonstrate that these genes are the targets of approved therapies for RA, and further suggest that drugs approved for other indications may be repurposed for the treatment of RA. Together, this comprehensive genetic study sheds light on fundamental genes, pathways and cell types that contribute to RA pathogenesis, and provides empirical evidence that the genetics of RA can provide important information for drug discovery

A meta-analysis of the investment-uncertainty relationship

In this article we use meta-analysis to investigate the investment-uncertainty relationship. We focus on the direction and statistical significance of empirical estimates. Specifically, we estimate an ordered probit model and transform the estimated coefficients into marginal effects to reflect the changes in the probability of finding a significantly negative estimate, an insignificant estimate, or a significantly positive estimate. Exploratory data analysis shows that there is little empirical evidence for a positive relationship. The regression results suggest that the source of uncertainty, the level of data aggregation, the underlying model specification, and differences between short- and long-run effects are important sources of variation in study outcomes. These findings are, by and large, robust to the introduction of a trend variable to capture publication trends in the literature. The probability of finding a significantly negative relationship is higher in more recently published studies. JEL Classification: D21, D80, E22 1