Modeling the spatial distribution of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Kruger National Park, South Africa

The population density of wildlife reservoirs contributes to disease transmission risk for domestic animals. The objective of this study was to model the African buffalo distribution of the Kruger National Park. A secondary objective was to collect field data to evaluate models and determine environmental predictors of buffalo detection. Spatial distribution models were created using buffalo census information and archived data from previous research. Field data were collected during the dry (August 2012) and wet (January 2013) seasons using a random walk design. The fit of the prediction models were assessed descriptively and formally by calculating the root mean square error (rMSE) of deviations from field observations. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effects of environmental variables on the detection of buffalo herds and linear regression was used to identify predictors of larger herd sizes. A zero-inflated Poisson model produced distributions that were most consistent with expected buffalo behavior. Field data confirmed that environmental factors including season (P = 0.008), vegetation type (P = 0.002), and vegetation density (P = 0.010) were significant predictors of buffalo detection. Bachelor herds were more likely to be detected in dense vegetation (P = 0.005) and during the wet season (P = 0.022) compared to the larger mixed-sex herds. Static distribution models for African buffalo can produce biologically reasonable results but environmental factors have significant effects and therefore could be used to improve model performance. Accurate distribution models are critical for the evaluation of disease risk and to model disease transmission

Effects of georeferencing effort on mapping monkeypox case distributions and transmission risk

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maps of disease occurrences and GIS-based models of disease transmission risk are increasingly common, and both rely on georeferenced diseases data. Automated methods for georeferencing disease data have been widely studied for developed countries with rich sources of geographic referenced data. However, the transferability of these methods to countries without comparable geographic reference data, particularly when working with historical disease data, has not been as widely studied. Historically, precise geographic information about where individual cases occur has been collected and stored verbally, identifying specific locations using place names. Georeferencing historic data is challenging however, because it is difficult to find appropriate geographic reference data to match the place names to. Here, we assess the degree of care and research invested in converting textual descriptions of disease occurrence locations to numerical grid coordinates (latitude and longitude). Specifically, we develop three datasets from the same, original monkeypox disease occurrence data, with varying levels of care and effort: the first based on an automated web-service, the second improving on the first by reference to additional maps and digital gazetteers, and the third improving still more based on extensive consultation of legacy surveillance records that provided considerable additional information about each case. To illustrate the implications of these seemingly subtle improvements in data quality, we develop ecological niche models and predictive maps of monkeypox transmission risk based on each of the three occurrence data sets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found macrogeographic variations in ecological niche models depending on the type of georeferencing method used. Less-careful georeferencing identified much smaller areas as having potential for monkeypox transmission in the Sahel region, as well as around the rim of the Congo Basin. These results have implications for mapping efforts, as each higher level of georeferencing precision required considerably greater time investment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The importance of careful georeferencing cannot be overlooked, despite it being a time- and labor-intensive process. Investment in archival storage of primary disease-occurrence data is merited, and improved digital gazetteers are needed to support public health mapping activities, particularly in developing countries, where maps and geographic information may be sparse.</p

Enhancing deprescribing : a qualitative understanding of the complexities of pharmacist-led deprescribing in care homes

Funding statement This research is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme (project reference NIHR202053). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. Acknowledgements Thank you to the pharmacists, GP practice and care home staff who took part in the interviews. We would also like to acknowledge the Norfolk and Waveney Clinical Commissioning Group as the study sponsor and our patient and public involvement colleagues Janet Gray and Christine Hanford who were supported by Jacqueline Romero, manager of PPIRes.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Information literacy and informed learning: conceptual innovations for IL research and practice futures

Our paper draws together conceptual innovations emerging from the work of a group of researchers focussed on the relational approach to information literacy, more recently labelled ‘informed learning’. Team members have been working together in various configurations for periods ranging from seven to seventeen years. Our collaborative approach continues to yield new concepts and constructs which we believe to be of value to ongoing research and practice. Some of the ideas discussed have been previouly published, while others are being put forward for the first time. All are significant in that they together form new constructs that have emerged from a focus on the relational approach to information literacy. In this paper, Christine Bruce introduces the background to this work and the contributing researchers. Then the individual authors present the key directions which they have developed and are leading, typically working with one or more of the wider network. The key ideas presented are: The expressive window for information literacy (Mandy Lupton); information experience design (Elham Sayyad Abdi); cross-contextuality and experienced identity (Andrew Demasson); informed learning design (Clarence Maybee); spaces for inclusive informed learning (Hilary Hughes); and informed systems (Mary Somerville and Anita Mirjamdotter). In each piece, authors reflect on what the idea is about, where it came from and what it might mean for research and practice

What cost components are relevant for economic evaluations of palliative care, and what approaches are used to measure these costs? A systematic review

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the costs of palliative and end-of-life care in order to inform decisions regarding cost allocation. However, economic research in palliative care is very limited and little is known about the range and extent of the costs that are involved in palliative care provision. AIM: To undertake a systematic review of the health and social care literature to determine the range of financial costs related to a palliative care approach and explore approaches used to measure these costs. DESIGN: A systematic review of empirical literature with thematic synthesis. Study quality was evaluated using the Weight of Evidence Framework. DATA SOURCES: The databases CINAHL, Cochrane, PsycINFO and Medline were searched from 1995 to November 2015 for empirical studies which presented data on the financial costs associated with palliative care. RESULTS: A total of 38 papers met our inclusion criteria. Components of palliative care costs were incurred within four broad domains: hospital care, community or home-based care, hospice care and informal care. These costs could be considered from the economic viewpoint of three providers: state or government, insurers/third-party/not-for-profit organisations and patient and family and/or society. A wide variety of costing approaches were used to derive costs. CONCLUSION: The evidence base regarding the economics of palliative care is sparse, particularly relating to the full economic costs of palliative care. Our review provides a framework for considering these costs from a variety of economic viewpoints; however, further research is required to develop and refine methodologies

Optimizing viable leukocyte sampling from the female genital tract for clinical trials: an international multi-site study

BACKGROUND: Functional analysis of mononuclear leukocytes in the female genital mucosa is essential for understanding the immunologic effects of HIV vaccines and microbicides at the site of HIV exposure. However, the best female genital tract sampling technique is unclear. Methods and FINDINGS: We enrolled women from four sites in Africa and the US to compare three genital leukocyte sampling methods: cervicovaginal lavages (CVL), endocervical cytobrushes, and ectocervical biopsies. Absolute yields of mononuclear leukocyte subpopulations were determined by flow cytometric bead-based cell counting. Of the non-invasive sampling types, two combined sequential cytobrushes yielded significantly more viable mononuclear leukocytes than a CVL (p<0.0001). In a subsequent comparison, two cytobrushes yielded as many leukocytes (∼10,000) as one biopsy, with macrophages/monocytes being more prominent in cytobrushes and T lymphocytes in biopsies. Sample yields were consistent between sites. In a subgroup analysis, we observed significant reproducibility between replicate same-day biopsies (r = 0.89, p = 0.0123). Visible red blood cells in cytobrushes increased leukocyte yields more than three-fold (p = 0.0078), but did not change their subpopulation profile, indicating that these leukocytes were still largely derived from the mucosa and not peripheral blood. We also confirmed that many CD4 + T cells in the female genital tract express the α4β7 integrin, an HIV envelope-binding mucosal homing receptor. CONCLUSIONS: CVL sampling recovered the lowest number of viable mononuclear leukocytes. Two cervical cytobrushes yielded comparable total numbers of viable leukocytes to one biopsy, but cytobrushes and biopsies were biased toward macrophages and T lymphocytes, respectively. Our study also established the feasibility of obtaining consistent flow cytometric analyses of isolated genital cells from four study sites in the US and Africa. These data represent an important step towards implementing mucosal cell sampling in international clinical trials of HIV prevention

Agrárpiaci Jelentések TEJ ÉS TEJTERMÉKEK

Magyarországon a nyerstej országos termelői átlagára 82,84 forint/kg volt 2015 áprilisában, ami 23 százalékos csökkenést jelent az előző év azonos hónapjának átlagárához képest. A zsírtartalom 0,02 százalékpontos, a fehérje-tartalom 0,04 százalékpontos mérséklődése hozzájárult a nyerstej árának 5 százalékos csökkenéséhez áprilisban a márciusihoz képest. A nyerstej felvásárlása 13 százalékkal nőtt ugyanekkor. Az Európai Bizottság adatai szerint az év első két hónapját tekintve az Európai Unió tagországai közül Magyarországon nőtt a legerőteljesebben, 10 száza-lékkal a nyerstej felvásárlása az egy évvel korábbihoz viszonyítva. A nyerstej kiviteli ára 74,92 forint/kg volt áprilisban, egy év alatt 29 százalékkal esett, és 10 százalékkal maradt el a belpiaci ártól. Az AKI PÁIR adatai szerint nyerstej kiszállítása 19 százalékkal nőtt a vizsgált időszakban, ezen belül a termelők és a kereskedők 10 százalékkal kevesebb, míg a feldolgozók 121 százalékkal több nyerstejet expor-táltak. A termelők és a kereskedők nyerstejkivitele 41 százalékkal haladta meg feldolgozókét. Az Európai Unió a tejkvóta megszűntetése után, figyelembe véve a tejtermelés májusi szezonális csúcspontját, jelentős mennyiségű tejterméket exportálhat a világpiacra. Az új-zélandi Westland tejfeldolgozó szerint az európai kínálat bővülésével a következő három hónapban túlkínálatra és az árak jelentős ingadozására lehet számítani. Előzetes adatok szerint a zsírtartalommal korrigált nyerstejfelvásárlás Ausztriában és Lengyelországban egyaránt 5,8 százalékkal, Írországban 4,3 százalékkal, Hollandiában 4,1 százalékkal, Németországban 3,7 százalékkal, Dáni-ában 1,26 százalékkal haladta meg, míg Csehországban 1,16 százalékkal, Franciaországban 4,3 százalékkal maradt el a 2014/2015. tejkvótaévben (április-március) a rendelkezésre álló tejkvótától. Olaszországban a kvótaév első 11 hónapjában a túllépés 2,69 százalékos volt

Women’s experiences of a pregnancy whilst attending a specialist antenatal service for pregnancies after stillbirth or neonatal death: a qualitative interview study

Aim: Pregnancy after the death of a baby is associated with numerous, varied psychological challenges for pregnant women. This study aimed to explore women’s experiences of pregnancy whilst attending a specialist antenatal service for pregnancies after a perinatal death. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with twenty women in a subsequent pregnancy after a perinatal death were conducted and analyzed taking an inductive thematic analysis approach. Results: All women expressed a heightened “awareness of risk”. Two subthemes demonstrated how increased awareness of risk affected their experience and their desire regarding antenatal and postnatal support. Women talked about stillbirth being a “quiet, unspoken subject” causing them internal conflict as they had an awareness of pregnancy complications that other people did not. Navigating subsequent pregnancies relied on them “expecting the worst and hoping for the best” in terms of pregnancy outcomes. Women viewed specialist antenatal care in pregnancy after perinatal loss favorably, as it enabled them to receive tailored care that met their needs stemming from their increased awareness of and personal expectations of risk. Conclusion: Women’s experiences can be used to develop models of care but further studies are required to determine to identify which components are most valued

"Now he walks and walks, as if he didn't have a home where he could eat": food, healing, and hunger in Quechua narratives of madness

In the Quechua-speaking peasant communities of southern Peru, mental disorder is understood less as individualized pathology and more as a disturbance in family and social relationships. For many Andeans, food and feeding are ontologically fundamental to such relationships. This paper uses data from interviews and participant observation in a rural province of Cuzco to explore the significance of food and hunger in local discussions of madness. Carers’ narratives, explanatory models, and theories of healing all draw heavily from idioms of food sharing and consumption in making sense of affliction, and these concepts structure understandings of madness that differ significantly from those assumed by formal mental health services. Greater awareness of the salience of these themes could strengthen the input of psychiatric and psychological care with this population and enhance knowledge of the alternative treatments that they use. Moreover, this case provides lessons for the global mental health movement on the importance of openness to the ways in which indigenous cultures may construct health, madness, and sociality. Such local meanings should be considered by mental health workers delivering services in order to provide care that can adjust to the alternative ontologies of sufferers and carers