An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordPermafrost, which covers 15 million km 2 of the land surface, is one of the components of the Earth system that is most sensitive to warming. Loss of permafrost would radically change high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, and could therefore provide very significant feedbacks on climate change. The latest climate models all predict warming of high-latitude soils and thus thawing of permafrost under future climate change, but with widely varying magnitudes of permafrost thaw. Here we show that in each of the models, their present-day spatial distribution of permafrost and air temperature can be used to infer the sensitivity of permafrost to future global warming. Using the same approach for the observed permafrost distribution and air temperature, we estimate a sensitivity of permafrost area loss to global mean warming at stabilization of million km 2 °C â '1 (1σ confidence), which is around 20% higher than previous studies. Our method facilitates an assessment for COP21 climate change targets: if the climate is stabilized at 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, we estimate that the permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C would save approximately 2 million km 2 of permafrost.European Union Seventh Framework ProgrammeNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)Swedish Research CouncilResearch Council of NorwayUK DECC/Defra Met Office HadleyEuropean Unio

Vertical pattern of organic matter decomposability in cryoturbated permafrost-affected soils

Permafrost thaw will release additional carbon dioxide into the atmosphere resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. However, the mineralization dynamics of organic matter (OM) stored in permafrost-affected soils remain unclear. We used physical soil fractionation, radiocarbon measurements, incubation experiments, and a dynamic decomposition model to identify distinct vertical pattern in OM decomposability. The observed differences reflect the type of OM input to the subsoil, either by cryoturbation or otherwise, e.g. by advective water-borne transport of dissolved OM. In non-cryoturbated subsoil horizons, most OM is stabilized at mineral surfaces or by occlusion in aggregates. In contrast, pockets of OM-rich cryoturbated soil contain sufficient free particulate OM for microbial decomposition. After thaw, OM turnover is as fast as in the upper active layer. Since cryoturbated soils store ca. 450 Pg carbon, identifying differences in decomposability according to such translocation processes has large implications for the future global carbon cycle and climate, and directs further process model development

Temperature effects on carbon storage are controlled by soil stabilisation capacities

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: All data used in this manuscript are fully open access and available. The soil data were obtained from a published snapshot derived from the World Soil Information database (https://doi.org/10.17027/isric-wdcsoils.20160003), the long-term climate data are available in the WorldClim version 2.0 database (http://worldclim.org), while the MODIS primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and landcover data are available in the MOD17A3 (https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD17A3.006), MOD16A2 (https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD16A2.006) and MCD12Q1 (https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD12Q1.006) databases respectively. The UKESM data from the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) is available in the public data archive (https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/cmip6/data/CMIP6/CMIP/MOHC/UKESM1-0-LL).Physical and chemical stabilisation mechanisms are now known to play a critical role in controlling carbon (C) storage in mineral soils, leading to suggestions that climate warming-induced C losses may be lower than previously predicted. By analysing > 9,000 soil profiles, here we show that, overall, C storage declines strongly with mean annual temperature. However, the reduction in C storage with temperature was more than three times greater in coarse-textured soils, with limited capacities for stabilising organic matter, than in fine-textured soils with greater stabilisation capacities. This pattern was observed independently in cool and warm regions, and after accounting for potentially confounding factors (plant productivity, precipitation, aridity, cation exchange capacity, and pH). The results could not, however, be represented by an established Earth system model (ESM). We conclude that warming will promote substantial soil C losses, but ESMs may not be predicting these losses accurately or which stocks are most vulnerable.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Swedish Research CouncilEuropean Union Horizon 202

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw

This is the final version. Available on open access from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this recordData Availability. The results and peat core data are summarized in Datasets S1–S6. Maps of predicted peatland extent, peat depth, and peat C and N storage (10-km pixels) are archived and freely available for download at https://bolin.su.se/data/hugelius-2020Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.Swedish Research CouncilEuropean UnionEuropean Union Horizon 2020Gordon and Betty and Gordon Moore FoundationNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)National Science FoundationNational Natural Science Foundation of Chin

Pan-Arctic soil element availability estimations

Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ecosystems will be affected by climate change, there is a need for data on element availability. Here, we analyzed the amorphous silicon (ASi) content as a solid fraction of the soils as well as Mehlich III extractions for the bioavailability of silicon (Si), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), phosphorus (P), and aluminum (Al) from 574 soil samples from the circumpolar Arctic region. We show large differences in the ASi fraction and in Si, Ca, Fe, Al, and P availability among different lithologies and Arctic regions. We summarize these data in pan-Arctic maps of the ASi fraction and available Si, Ca, Fe, P, and Al concentrations, focusing on the top 100 cm of Arctic soil. Furthermore, we provide element availability values for the organic and mineral layers of the seasonally thawing active layer as well as for the uppermost permafrost layer. Our spatially explicit data on differences in the availability of elements between the different lithological classes and regions now and in the future will improve Arctic Earth system models for estimating current and future carbon and nutrient feedbacks under climate change (https://doi.org/10.17617/3.8KGQUN, Schaller and Goeckede, 2022).</p

Deep Yedoma permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability

Permafrost is a distinct feature of the terrestrial Arctic and is vulnerable to climate warming. Permafrost degrades in different ways, including deepening of a seasonally unfrozen surface and localized but rapid development of deep thaw features. Pleistocene ice-rich permafrost with syngenetic ice-wedges, termed Yedoma deposits, are widespread in Siberia, Alaska, and Yukon, Canada and may be especially prone to rapid-thaw processes. Freeze-locked organic matter in such deposits can be re-mobilized on short time-scales and contribute to a carbon cycle climate feedback. Here we synthesize the characteristics and vulnerability of Yedoma deposits by synthesizing studies on the Yedoma origin and the associated organic carbon pool. We suggest that Yedoma deposits accumulated under periglacial weathering, transport, and deposition dynamics in non-glaciated regions during the late Pleistocene until the beginning of late glacial warming. The deposits formed due to a combination of aeolian, colluvial, nival, and alluvial deposition and simultaneous ground ice accumulation. We found up to 130 gigatons organic carbon in Yedoma, parts of which are well-preserved and available for fast decomposition after thaw. Based on incubation experiments, up to 10% of the Yedoma carbon is considered especially decomposable and may be released upon thaw. The substantial amount of ground ice in Yedoma makes it highly vulnerable to disturbances such as thermokarst and thermo-erosion processes. Mobilization of permafrost carbon is expected to increase under future climate warming. Our synthesis results underline the need of accounting for Yedoma carbon stocks in next generation Earth-System-Models for a more complete representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback

De flora en vegetatie van lijnvormige beplantingen in Nederland

Climate change effects on freshwater biogeochemistry and riverine loads of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea are not straight forward and are difficult to distinguish from other human drivers such as atmospheric deposition, forest and wetland management , eutrophication and hydrological alterations. Eutrophication is by far the most well-known factor affecting the biogeochemistry of the receiving waters in the various sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. However, the present literature review reveals that climate change is a compounding factor for all major drivers of freshwater biogeochemistry discussed here, although evidence is still often based on short-term and/or small-scale studies

PeRL : a circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake database

Ponds and lakes are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. They play an important role in Arctic wetland ecosystems by regulating carbon, water, and energy fluxes and providing freshwater habitats. However, ponds, i. e., waterbodies with surface areas smaller than 1.0 x 10(4) m(2), have not been inventoried on global and regional scales. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database presents the results of a circum-Arctic effort to map ponds and lakes from modern (2002-2013) high-resolution aerial and satellite imagery with a resolution of 5m or better. The database also includes historical imagery from 1948 to 1965 with a resolution of 6m or better. PeRL includes 69 maps covering a wide range of environmental conditions from tundra to boreal regions and from continuous to discontinuous permafrost zones. Waterbody maps are linked to regional permafrost landscape maps which provide information on permafrost extent, ground ice volume, geology, and lithology. This paper describes waterbody classification and accuracy, and presents statistics of waterbody distribution for each site. Maps of permafrost landscapes in Alaska, Canada, and Russia are used to extrapolate waterbody statistics from the site level to regional landscape units. PeRL presents pond and lake estimates for a total area of 1.4 x 10(6) km(2) across the Arctic, about 17% of the Arctic lowland (Peer reviewe

Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes

Thermokarst is the process whereby the thawing of ice-rich permafrost ground causes land subsidence, resulting in development of distinctive landforms. Accelerated thermokarst due to climate change will damage infrastructure, but also impact hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry. Here, we present a circumpolar assessment of the distribution of thermokarst landscapes, defined as landscapes comprised of current thermokarst landforms and areas susceptible to future thermokarst development. At 3.6 × 106 km2, thermokarst landscapes are estimated to cover ∼20% of the northern permafrost region, with approximately equal contributions from three landscape types where characteristic wetland, lake and hillslope thermokarst landforms occur. We estimate that approximately half of the below-ground organic carbon within the study region is stored in thermokarst landscapes. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering thermokarst when assessing impacts of climate change, including future landscape greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a means for assessing such impacts at the circumpolar scale