A machine learning approach to galaxy properties: joint redshift–stellar mass probability distributions with Random Forest

ABSTRACT We demonstrate that highly accurate joint redshift–stellar mass probability distribution functions (PDFs) can be obtained using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) algorithm, even with few photometric bands available. As an example, we use the Dark Energy Survey (DES), combined with the COSMOS2015 catalogue for redshifts and stellar masses. We build two ML models: one containing deep photometry in the griz bands, and the second reflecting the photometric scatter present in the main DES survey, with carefully constructed representative training data in each case. We validate our joint PDFs for 10 699 test galaxies by utilizing the copula probability integral transform and the Kendall distribution function, and their univariate counterparts to validate the marginals. Benchmarked against a basic set-up of the template-fitting code bagpipes, our ML-based method outperforms template fitting on all of our predefined performance metrics. In addition to accuracy, the RF is extremely fast, able to compute joint PDFs for a million galaxies in just under 6 min with consumer computer hardware. Such speed enables PDFs to be derived in real time within analysis codes, solving potential storage issues. As part of this work we have developed galpro1, a highly intuitive and efficient python package to rapidly generate multivariate PDFs on-the-fly. galpro is documented and available for researchers to use in their cosmology and galaxy evolution studies

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

ABSTRACT Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets

Galaxy–galaxy lensing with the DES-CMASS catalogue: measurement and constraints on the galaxy-matter cross-correlation

The DMASS sample is a photometric sample from the DES Year 1 data set designed to replicate the properties of the CMASS sample from BOSS, in support of a joint analysis of DES and BOSS beyond the small overlapping area. In this paper, we present the measurement of galaxy–galaxy lensing using the DMASS sample as gravitational lenses in the DES Y1 imaging data. We test a number of potential systematics that can bias the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal, including those from shear estimation, photometric redshifts, and observing conditions. After careful systematic tests, we obtain a highly significant detection of the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal, with total S/N = 25.7. With the measured signal, we assess the feasibility of using DMASS as gravitational lenses equivalent to CMASS, by estimating the galaxy-matter cross-correlation coefficient rcc. By jointly fitting the galaxy–galaxy lensing measurement with the galaxy clustering measurement from CMASS, we obtain rcc=1.09+0.12−0.11 for the scale cut of 4h−1Mpc and rcc=1.06+0.13−0.12 for 12h−1Mpc in fixed cosmology. By adding the angular galaxy clustering of DMASS, we obtain rcc = 1.06 ± 0.10 for the scale cut of 4h−1Mpc and rcc = 1.03 ± 0.11 for 12h−1Mpc⁠. The resulting values of rcc indicate that the lensing signal of DMASS is statistically consistent with the one that would have been measured if CMASS had populated the DES region within the given statistical uncertainty. The measurement of galaxy–galaxy lensing presented in this paper will serve as part of the data vector for the forthcoming cosmology analysis in preparation

Dark Energy Survey Y3 results: blending shear and redshift biases in image simulations

As the statistical power of galaxy weak lensing reaches per cent level precision, large, realistic, and robust simulations are required to calibrate observational systematics, especially given the increased importance of object blending as survey depths increase. To capture the coupled effects of blending in both shear and photometric redshift calibration, we define the effective redshift distribution for lensing, nγ(z), and describe how to estimate it using image simulations. We use an extensive suite of tailored image simulations to characterize the performance of the shear estimation pipeline applied to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data set. We describe the multiband, multi-epoch simulations, and demonstrate their high level of realism through comparisons to the real DES data. We isolate the effects that generate shear calibration biases by running variations on our fiducial simulation, and find that blending-related effects are the dominant contribution to the mean multiplicative bias of approximately −2 per cent⁠. By generating simulations with input shear signals that vary with redshift, we calibrate biases in our estimation of the effective redshift distribution, and demonstrate the importance of this approach when blending is present. We provide corrected effective redshift distributions that incorporate statistical and systematic uncertainties, ready for use in DES Year 3 weak lensing analyses

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: redshift calibration of the weak lensing source galaxies

ABSTRACT Determining the distribution of redshifts of galaxies observed by wide-field photometric experiments like the Dark Energy Survey (DES) is an essential component to mapping the matter density field with gravitational lensing. In this work we describe the methods used to assign individual weak lensing source galaxies from the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Source Catalogue to four tomographic bins and to estimate the redshift distributions in these bins. As the first application of these methods to data, we validate that the assumptions made apply to the DES Y3 weak lensing source galaxies and develop a full treatment of systematic uncertainties. Our method consists of combining information from three independent likelihood functions: self-organizing map p(z) (sompz), a method for constraining redshifts from galaxy photometry; clustering redshifts (WZ), constraints on redshifts from cross-correlations of galaxy density functions; and shear ratios (SRs), which provide constraints on redshifts from the ratios of the galaxy-shear correlation functions at small scales. Finally, we describe how these independent probes are combined to yield an ensemble of redshift distributions encapsulating our full uncertainty. We calibrate redshifts with combined effective uncertainties of σ〈z〉 ∼ 0.01 on the mean redshift in each tomographic bin

Assessing tension metrics with dark energy survey and Planck data

ABSTRACT Quantifying tensions – inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments – has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically significant tensions between two experiments or cosmological probes may indicate new physics extending beyond the standard cosmological model and need to be promptly identified. We apply several tension estimators proposed in the literature to the dark energy survey (DES) large-scale structure measurement and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We first evaluate the responsiveness of these metrics to an input tension artificially introduced between the two, using synthetic DES data. We then apply the metrics to the comparison of Planck and actual DES Year 1 data. We find that the parameter differences, Eigentension, and Suspiciousness metrics all yield similar results on both simulated and real data, while the Bayes ratio is inconsistent with the rest due to its dependence on the prior volume. Using these metrics, we calculate the tension between DES Year 1 3 × 2pt and Planck, finding the surveys to be in ∼2.3σ tension under the ΛCDM paradigm. This suite of metrics provides a toolset for robustly testing tensions in the DES Year 3 data and beyond