Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

In this paper, we examine the concept of embodied uncertainty by exploring multiple dimensions of uncertainty in the context of risks associated with extreme natural hazards. We highlight a need for greater recognition, particularly by disaster management and response agencies, of uncertainty as a subjective experience for those living at risk. Embodied uncertainty is distinguished from objective uncertainty by the nature of its internalisation at the individual level, where it is subjective, felt and directly experienced. This approach provides a conceptual pathway that sharpens knowledge of the processes that shape how individuals and communities interpret and contextualise risk. The ways in which individual characteristics, social identities and lived experiences shape interpretations of risk are explored by considering embodied uncertainty in four contexts: social identities and trauma, the co-production of knowledge, institutional structures and policy and long-term lived experiences. We conclude by outlining the opportunities that this approach presents, and provide recommendations for further research on how the concept of embodied uncertainty can aid decision-making and the management of risks in the context of extreme natural hazards

Using role-play to improve students’ confidence and perceptions of communication in a simulated volcanic crisis

Traditional teaching of volcanic science typically emphasises scientific principles and tends to omit the key roles, responsibilities, protocols, and communication needs that accompany volcanic crises. This chapter provides a foundation in instructional communication, education, and risk and crisis communication research that identifies the need for authentic challenges in higher education to challenge learners and provide opportunities to practice crisis communication in real-time. We present an authentic, immersive role-play called the Volcanic Hazards Simulation that is an example of a teaching resource designed to match professional competencies. The role-play engages students in volcanic crisis concepts while simultaneously improving their confidence and perceptions of communicating science. During the role-play, students assume authentic roles and responsibilities of professionals and communicate through interdisciplinary team discussions, media releases, and press conferences. We characterised and measured the students’ confidence and perceptions of volcanic crisis communication using a mixed methods research design to determine if the role-play was effective at improving these qualities. Results showed that there was a statistically significant improvement in both communication confidence and perceptions of science communication. The exercise was most effective in transforming low-confidence and low-perception students, with some negative changes measured for our higher-learners. Additionally, students reported a comprehensive and diverse set of best practices but focussed primarily on the mechanics of science communication delivery. This curriculum is a successful example of how to improve students’ communication confidence and perceptions

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Enhancing scientific response in a crisis: evidence-based approaches from emergency management in New Zealand

Contemporary approaches to multi-organisational response planning for the management of complex volcanic crises assume that identifying the types of expertise needed provides the foundation for effective response. We discuss why this is only one aspect, and present the social, psychological and organizational issues that need to be accommodated to realize the full benefits of multi-agency collaboration. We discuss the need to consider how organizational culture, inter-agency trust, mental models, information management and communication and decision making competencies and processes, need to be understood and accommodated in crisis management planning and delivery. This paper discusses how these issues can be reconciled within superordinate (overarching) management structures designed to accommodate multi-agency response that incorporates decision-making inputs from both the response management team and the science advisors. We review the science advisory processes within New Zealand (NZ), and discuss lessons learnt from research into the inter-organisational response to historical eruptions and exercises in NZ. We argue that team development training is essential and review the different types of training and exercising techniques (including cross training, positional rotation, scenario planning, collaborative exercises, and simulations) which can be used to develop a coordinated capability in multiagency teams. We argue that to truly enhance the science response, science agencies must learn from the emergency management sector and embark on exercise and simulation programs within their own organisations, rather than solely participating as external players in emergency management exercises. We thus propose a science-led tiered exercise program, with example exercise scenarios, which can be used to enhance both the internal science response and the interagency response to a national or international event, and provide direction for the effective writing and conduct of these exercises.falsePublishe

The grain <i>Hardness</i> locus characterized in a diverse wheat panel (<i>Triticum aestivum L</i>.) adapted to the central part of the Fertile Crescent:genetic diversity, haplotype structure, and phylogeny

PubMedID: 26898967Wheat belongs to the most important crops domesticated in the Fertile Crescent. In this region, fortunately, locally adapted wheat landraces are still present in farmers’ fields. This material might be of immense value for future breeding programs. However, especially wheat germplasm adapted to the central part of the Fertile Crescent has been poorly characterized for allelic variation at key loci of agricultural importance. Grain hardness is an important trait influencing milling and baking quality of wheat. This trait is mainly determined by three tightly linked genes, namely, Puroindoline a (Pina), Puroindoline b (Pinb), and Grain softness protein-1 (Gsp-1), at the Hardness (Ha-D) locus on chromosome 5DS. To investigate genetic diversity and haplotype structure, we resequenced 96 diverse wheat lines at Pina-D1, Pinb-D1, Gsp-A1, Gsp-B1, and Gsp-D1. Three types of null alleles were identified using diagnostic primers: the first type was a multiple deletion of Pina-D1, Pinb-D1, and Gsp-D1 (Pina-D1k), the second was a Pina-D1 deletion (Pina-D1b); and the third type was a deletion of Gsp-D1, representing a novel null allele designated here as Gsp-D1k. Sequence analysis resulted in four allelic variants at Pinb-D1 and five at Gsp-A1, among them Gsp-A1-V was novel. Pina-D1, Gsp-B1 and Gsp-D1 sequences were monomorphic. Haplotype and phylogenetic analysis suggested that (1) bread wheat inherited its 5DS telomeric region probably from wild diploid Ae. tauschii subsp. tauschii found within an area from Transcaucasia to Caspian Iran; and that (2) the Ha-A and Ha-B homoeoloci were most closely related to sequences of wild tetraploid T. dicoccoides. This study provides a good overview of available genetic diversity at Pina-D1, Pinb-D1, and Gsp-1, which can be exploited to extend the range of grain texture traits in wheat. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg