Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.publishedVersio

Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Goldsmit, J., Schlegel, R. W., Filbee-Dexter, K., MacGregor, K. A., Johnson, L. E., Mundy, C. J., Savoie, A. M., McKindsey, C. W., Howland, K. L., & Archambault, P. Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover. Frontiers in Marine Science, 18, (2021): 742209. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems through the expansion and contraction of species’ ranges. Sea ice loss and warming temperatures are expected to expand habitat availability for macroalgae along long stretches of Arctic coastlines. To better understand the current distribution of kelp forests in the Eastern Canadian Arctic, kelps were sampled along the coasts for species identifications and percent cover. The sampling effort was supplemented with occurrence records from global biodiversity databases, searches in the literature, and museum records. Environmental information and occurrence records were used to develop ensemble models for predicting habitat suitability and a Random Forest model to predict kelp cover for the dominant kelp species in the region – Agarum clathratum, Alaria esculenta, and Laminariaceae species (Laminaria solidungula and Saccharina latissima). Ice thickness, sea temperature and salinity explained the highest percentage of kelp distribution. Both modeling approaches showed that the current extent of arctic kelps is potentially much greater than the available records suggest. These modeling approaches were projected into the future using predicted environmental data for 2050 and 2100 based on the most extreme emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The models agreed that predicted distribution of kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic is likely to expand to more northern locations under future emissions scenarios, with the exception of the endemic arctic kelp L. solidungula, which is more likely to lose a significant proportion of suitable habitat. However, there were differences among species regarding predicted cover for both current and future projections. Notwithstanding model-specific variation, it is evident that kelps are widespread throughout the area and likely contribute significantly to the functioning of current Arctic ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of kelp in Arctic ecosystems and the underestimation of their potential distribution there.This work was supported by ArcticNet (P101 ArcticKelp), Fisheries and Oceans Canada Arctic Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Arctic Science and Aquatic Invasive Species Monitoring and Research Funds, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), NRCan Polar Continental Shelf Program Support, Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN), the Nunavut Marine Region Wildlife Management Board (NWMB), Quebec-Ocean, and the Ocean Frontier Institute through an award from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network of Centres of Excellence’s (MEOPAR-NCE) Southampton Island Marine Ecosystem Project, and the Belmont Forum–BiodivERsA’s De-icing of Arctic Coasts: critical or new opportunities for marine biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (ACCES). KF-D was supported by the Australian Research Council (DE190100692)

Migration, Dispersal, and Gene Flow of Harvested Aquatic Species in the Canadian Arctic

Migration occurs when key aspects of the life cycle such as growth, reproduction, or maintenance cannot all be completed in one location. The Arctic habitats are variable and Arctic species are often migratory. The predictable nature of migrations in both space and time allow Arctic people to harvest fishes and marine mammals. We describe migratory/dispersal behavior in four types of taxa from the Canadian Arctic: anadromous and freshwater fishes, marine fishes, marine invertebrates, and marine mammals. Patterns of migration are remarkably different between these groups, in particular between distances migrated, seasonal timing of migrations, and the degree of reproductive isolation. Migratory anadromous and freshwater fishes become adapted to specific locations resulting in complex life histories and intra- and inter-population variation. Marine mammals not only migrate longer distances but also appear to have distinct demographic populations over large scales. Marine fishes tend to be panmictic, probably due to the absence of barriers that would restrict gene flow. Migratory patterns also reflect feeding or rearing areas and/or winter refugia. Migratory patterns of harvested aquatic organisms in the Canadian north are extremely variable and have shaped the north in terms of harvest, communities, and culture

Sea Ice and Substratum Shape Extensive Kelp Forests in the Canadian Arctic

The coastal zone of the Canadian Arctic represents 10% of the world’s coastline and is one of the most rapidly changing marine regions on the planet. To predict the consequences of these environmental changes, a better understanding of how environmental gradients shape coastal habitat structure in this area is required. We quantified the abundance and diversity of canopy forming seaweeds throughout the nearshore zone (5–15 m) of the Eastern Canadian Arctic using diving surveys and benthic collections at 55 sites distributed over 3,000 km of coastline. Kelp forests were found throughout, covering on average 40.4% (±29.9 SD) of the seafloor across all sites and depths, despite thick sea ice and scarce hard substrata in some areas. Total standing macroalgal biomass ranged from 0 to 32 kg m–2 wet weight and averaged 3.7 kg m–2 (±0.6 SD) across all sites and depths. Kelps were less abundant at depths of 5 m compared to 10 or 15 m and distinct regional assemblages were related to sea ice cover, substratum type, and nutrient availability. The most common community configuration was a mixed assemblage of four species: Agarum clathratum (14.9% benthic cover ± 12.0 SD), Saccharina latissima (13% ± 14.7 SD), Alaria esculenta (5.4% ± 1.2 SD), and Laminaria solidungula (3.7% ± 4.9 SD). A. clathratum dominated northernmost regions and S. latissima and L. solidungula occurred at high abundance in regions with more open water days. In southeastern areas along the coast of northern Labrador, the coastal zone was mainly sea urchin barrens, with little vegetation. We found positive relationships between open water days (days without sea ice) and kelp biomass and seaweed diversity, suggesting kelp biomass could increase, and the species composition of kelp forests could shift, as sea ice diminishes in some areas of the Eastern Canadian Arctic. Our findings demonstrate the high potential productivity of this extensive coastal zone and highlight the need to better understand the ecology of this system and the services it provides.publishedVersio

Ecological risk assessment of predicted marine invasions in the Canadian Arctic.

Climate change is impacting environmental conditions, especially with respect to temperature and ice cover in high latitude regions. Predictive models and risk assessment are key tools for understanding potential changes associated with such impacts on coastal regions. In this study relative ecological risk assessment was done for future potential introductions of three species in the Canadian Arctic: periwinkle Littorina littorea, soft shell clam Mya arenaria and red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus. These species occur in locations connected to Canadian Arctic ports through shipping and have the potential to be introduced via ballast water discharge. The methodology proposed in this study is unique in the sense that it considers not only ballast water origin, but also the distribution of the species being assessed and the sensitivity of the receiving habitat. It combines detailed information (ballast water source of each tank, transit time, time of the year when the water is released, environmental suitability of receiving habitat, impact, and habitat sensitivity) in order to assess ecological risk. Through the use of this approach it is highlighted that domestic discharge events pose a higher relative overall risk on a vessel-specific and cumulative annual bases than international discharges. The main ports of Deception Bay and Churchill were classified as being at moderate to high relative risk for L. littorea and M. arenaria, especially from domestic vessels, while relative overall risk for P. camtschaticus was low for international vessels and null for domestic vessels due to few ships transiting from its range of distribution to Canadian Arctic ports. This work can serve as an approach to help build a list of potential high risk species-a "grey" watch list-for the Canadian Arctic, and provides useful information for consideration in future decision making actions such as the identification of high risk pathways, species and ports

Genetic Stock Identification and Relative Contribution of Arctic Char (Salvelinus alpinus) from the Hornaday and Brock Rivers to Subsistence Fisheries in Darnley Bay, Northwest Territories + Supplementary Appendix Tables S1 to S4 (See Article Tools)

Where anadromous fishes occur in the Canadian Arctic, they provide the mainstay of local subsistence fisheries of varying intensities. Many of these fisheries harvest a mixture of stocks at discrete locations and it is often not known which stocks, specifically, are being harvested and to what extent. In the Darnley Bay area of the Northwest Territories, Arctic char, Salvelinus alpinus, in particular have long provided an important subsistence resource to residents of Paulatuk, and char from two systems (the Hornaday and Brock Rivers) are thought to contribute to the coastal fishery for this species. Genetic mixed-stock analysis (GMA) is routinely applied for resolving stock contributions to such fisheries, yet studies incorporating GMA to understand specifically which stocks are being harvested in the Canadian Arctic, and to what extent, are relatively scarce. In this study, we assayed microsatellite DNA variation among 987 Arctic char from two important coastal subsistence fisheries and several inland sampling locations in the Darnley Bay area to (1) assess the degree of genetic structuring between the Hornaday and Brock Rivers and (2) resolve the proportional contributions of these stocks to coastal mixed-stock fisheries in the region using GMA. Overall, genetic differentiation was relatively high and significant (θ = 0.117; 95% C.I. = 0.097–0.142) among baseline sampling locations. Overall patterns of genetic stock structure also support previous hypotheses that additional life history types (e.g., landlocked or freshwater-resident char, or both) exist in the Hornaday system, as indicated by elevated levels of genetic differentiation between some of our sampling locations. The GMA suggested that, while both river systems contribute to the coastal fishery, catches were dominated by Arctic char from the Hornaday River, which highlights the importance of this system. All told, our results may be relevant to the management of the subsistence fishery in Darnley Bay and for furthering the collective understanding of char biodiversity and life history variation in the Canadian Arctic.Dans les milieux de l’Arctique canadien où l’on trouve des poissons anadromes, ceux-ci sont à la base de pêcheries de subsistance locales d’intensités variées. Grand nombre de ces pêcheries permettent de récolter un mélange de stocks à différents endroits et nous ne savons souvent pas quels stocks en particulier sont récoltés et jusqu’à quel point. Dans la région de la baie Darnley, dans les Territoires du Nord-Ouest, l’omble chevalier, Salvelinus alpinus, en particulier, a longtemps fourni une ressource de subsistance importante aux résidents de Paulatuk, et des ombles de deux réseaux (les rivières Hornaday et Brock) semblent contribuer à la pêche de cette espèce en eaux côtières. La méthode de l’analyse génétique de stocks mélangés est souvent employée pour déterminer les contributions de différents stocks à ce genre de pêcheries, mais relativement peu d’études intégrant l’analyse génétique de stocks mélangés ont été réalisées pour comprendre exactement quels stocks sont récoltés dans l’Arctique canadien, et jusqu’à quel point. Dans cette étude, nous avons analysé des variations d’ADN microsatellite chez 987 ombles chevaliers de deux importantes pêcheries de subsistance côtières et plusieurs sites d’échantillonnage intérieurs dans la région de la baie Darnley pour 1) évaluer le degré de structuration génétique entre les rivières Hornaday et Brock et 2) déterminer les contributions proportionnelles de ces stocks par rapport aux pêches côtières de stocks mélangés dans la région au moyen de l’analyse génétique de stocks mélangés. Dans l’ensemble, la différenciation génétique était relativement élevée et significative (θ = 0,117; IC à 95 % = 0,097–0,142) parmi les sites d’échantillonnage de base. Les tendances générales relatives à la structure génétique des stocks appuient également des hypothèses antérieures selon lesquelles d’autres types de cycles de vie (p. ex. l’omble confiné aux eaux intérieures ou l’omble d’eau douce, ou les deux) existent dans le réseau Hornaday, tel qu’indiqué par les niveaux élevés de différenciation génétique entre certains de nos sites d’échantillonnage. L’analyse génétique des stocks mélangés suggère que, bien que les réseaux des deux rivières contribuent à la pêche côtière, l’omble chevalier de la rivière Hornaday dominait les prises, ce qui met en évidence l’importance de ce réseau. Dans l’ensemble, nos résultats peuvent être pertinents pour la gestion de la pêche de subsistance dans la baie Darnley et pour favoriser la compréhension collective de la biodiversité de l’omble et de la variation de son cycle vital dans l’Arctique canadien

Migration tactics affect spawning frequency in an iteroparous salmonid (Salvelinus malma) from the Arctic.

Otolith strontium and multi-year mark-recapture information were used to characterize associations between migration patterns and spawning frequencies in an anadromous Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) population (Rat River, Northwest Territories, Canada) that undertakes a long migration between freshwater spawning/overwintering (Fish Creek; a tributary to Rat River) and marine feeding habitats (Beaufort Sea) (~800 km round trip). Reconstructions of lifetime annual migration histories among otolith annuli was matched to information on reproductive status (current-year 'spawner' or 'non-spawner') that was known in two different, sometimes successive, years for each fish. Two migratory life histories were observed: fish either migrated annually after smoltification or periodically skipped an annual ocean migration to remain in freshwater and spawn. Different spawning frequencies were detected where fish not migrating annually tended to spawn in alternate years (84.6%) more often than those migrating annually (50%). Additionally, annually migrating fish had lower longevity (≤9 years vs. ≤13 years). The evaluation of differences in spawning frequency between sexes, independent of migration tactic, revealed males (84.6%) skipped spawning more often than females (51.2%) suggesting fitness trade-offs between life histories differ between sexes. Further, some fish returned from the sea considerably earlier than the majority of other current-year migrants. Our findings demonstrate intrapopulation diversity in migration behaviour and reproductive frequency

Data from: Evolution and origin of sympatric shallow-water morphotypes of Lake Trout, Salvelinus namaycush, in Canada's Great Bear Lake

Range expansion in north-temperate fishes subsequent to the retreat of the Wisconsinan glaciers has resulted in the rapid colonization of previously unexploited, heterogeneous habitats and, in many situations, secondary contact among conspecific lineages that were once previously isolated. Such ecological opportunity coupled with reduced competition likely promoted morphological and genetic differentiation within and among post-glacial fish populations. Discrete morphological forms existing in sympatry, for example, have now been described in many species, yet few studies have directly assessed the association between morphological and genetic variation. Morphotypes of Lake Trout, Salvelinus namaycush, are found in several large-lake systems including Great Bear Lake (GBL), Northwest Territories, Canada, where several shallow-water forms are known. Here, we assess microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA variation among four morphotypes of Lake Trout from the five distinct arms of GBL, and also from locations outside of this system to evaluate several hypotheses concerning the evolution of morphological variation in this species. Our data indicate that morphotypes of Lake Trout from GBL are genetically differentiated from one another, yet the morphotypes are still genetically more similar to one another compared with populations from outside of this system. Furthermore, our data suggest that Lake Trout colonized GBL following dispersal from a single glacial refugium (the Mississippian) and support an intra-lake model of divergence. Overall, our study provides insights into the origins of morphological and genetic variation in post-glacial populations of fishes and provides benchmarks important for monitoring Lake Trout biodiversity in a region thought to be disproportionately susceptible to impacts from climate change

Data from: Assessing conservation risks to populations of an anadromous Arctic salmonid, the northern Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma malma), via estimates of effective and census population sizes and approximate Bayesian computation

Census population size (Nc) is crucial to the development of resource management strategies, however, monitoring the effective population size (Ne) of managed populations has proliferated because of this parameter’s relationship to the short-term impacts of genetic stochasticity and long-term population viability. Thus, having a sound understanding of both Nc and Ne, including population connectivity, provides valuable insights into both the demographic and genetic risks to extinction. Here, we assessed microsatellite DNA variation in four (of five known) anadromous northern Dolly Varden (NDV, Salvelinus malma malma) populations from Canada’s western Arctic region, to estimate Ne using both temporal-based and single-sample estimators and to test for associations between Ne and Nc. We also employed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to evaluate several evolutionary scenarios that have potentially shaped contemporary population structure in this species, focusing particularly on population size and connectivity. We found evidence for moderate to large contemporary and historical Ne, suggesting that short- and long-term extinction risks are low for these populations. Estimates of contemporary and long-term Ne were variable within and among populations and overall estimates could not be reliably linked with Nc or available spawning habitat. The overall estimate of Ne/Nc, was 0.152 and ranged from 0.024 to 0.442 when including errors around the estimate of Ne and Nc. Finally, ABC analyses suggest that NDV had a common origin followed by divergence in isolation while maintaining large effective sizes, but also that these populations were bottlenecked in the past, likely the result of post-glacial colonization processes. These results corroborate indications of limited gene flow at present, indicating independent demographic and evolutionary trajectories that imply NDV is best managed on a per-river-population basis. Overall, the results of this study further our general understanding of Ne, Ne/Nc and demographic independence in NDV, and provide a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the potential genetic and demographic risk status of Arctic anadromous salmonids, including baselines for future monitoring