Від коваріацій до каузальності. Відкриття структур залежностей у даних

Проаналізовано сучасну методологію виводу каузальних моделей та структур систем імовірнісних залежностей із статистичних даних пасивних спостережень. Висвітлено можливості, проблеми, застереження та обмеження методів індуктивної ідентифікації каузальних відношень в апараті марковських властивостей та баєсових мереж. Виділено кілька ступенів каузальних моделей згідно з рівнем їх обґрунтованості та адекватності джерелу даних. Сформульовано статистичний паттерн, який зводить обґрунтування висновку про каузальний характер зв’язку двох змінних до тестування набору статистичних фактів (не)залежності.Проанализирована современная методология вывода каузальных моделей и структур систем вероятностных зависимостей из статистических данных пассивных наблюдений. Освещены возможности, проблемы, оговорки и ограничения методов индуктивной идентификации каузальных отношений в аппарате марковских свойств и байесовых сетей. Выделены несколько ступеней каузальных моделей согласно уровню их обоснованности и адекватности источнику данных. Сформулирован статистический паттерн, который сводит обоснование вывода о каузальном характере связи двух переменных к тестированию набора статистических фактов (не)зависимости.The current methodology of output casual models and structures of systems of probabilistic dependencies of stafistical data of passive observation is analysed. The problems, features, traps and limitations of the methods of the inductive identification of casual relation in the unit of marcov properties and bayesias nets are highlighted. Several stages of casual models according to the level of their validity and adequacy of the data source are emphasized. The statistical pattern, which brings the justification of a finding about casual nature of the connections between two variables to the test of a set of statistical facts of (in)dependency is formulated

Internet based vascular risk factor management for patients with clinically manifest vascular disease: randomised controlled trial

Objective To investigate whether an internet based, nurse led vascular risk factor management programme promoting self management on top of usual care is more effective than usual care alone in reducing vascular risk factors in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease

Childhood abuse v. neglect and risk for major psychiatric disorders

Background. Childhood maltreatment (CM) is a strong risk factor for psychiatric disorders but serves in its current definitions as an umbrella for various fundamentally different childhood experiences. As first step toward a more refined analysis of the impact of CM, our objective is to revisit the relation of abuse and neglect, major subtypes of CM, with symptoms across disorders.Methods. Three longitudinal studies of major depressive disorder (MDD, N = 1240), bipolar disorder (BD, N = 1339), and schizophrenia (SCZ, N = 577), each including controls (N = 881), were analyzed. Multivariate regression models were used to examine the relation between exposure to abuse, neglect, or their combination to the odds for MDD, BD, SCZ, and symptoms across disorders. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to probe causality, using genetic instruments of abuse and neglect derived from UK Biobank data (N = 143 473).Results. Abuse was the stronger risk factor for SCZ (OR 3.51, 95% CI 2.17-5.67) and neglect for BD (OR 2.69, 95% CI 2.09-3.46). Combined CM was related to increased risk exceeding additive effects of abuse and neglect for MDD (RERI = 1.4) and BD (RERI = 1.1). Across disorders, abuse was associated with hallucinations (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.55-3.01) and suicide attempts (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.55-3.01) whereas neglect was associated with agitation (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.02-1.51) and reduced need for sleep (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.08-2.48). MR analyses were consistent with a bidirectional causal effect of abuse with SCZ (IVWforward = 0.13, 95% CI 0.01-0.24).Conclusions. Childhood abuse and neglect are associated with different risks to psychiatric symptoms and disorders. Unraveling the origin of these differences may advance understanding of disease etiology and ultimately facilitate development of improved personalized treatment strategies

Lymphovascular Invasion at the Time of Radical Prostatectomy Adversely Impacts Oncological Outcomes.

Lymphovascular invasion, whereby tumour cells or cell clusters are identified in the lumen of lymphatic or blood vessels, is thought to be an essential step in disease dissemination. It has been established as an independent negative prognostic indicator in a range of cancers. We therefore aimed to assess the impact of lymphovascular invasion at the time of prostatectomy on oncological outcomes. We performed a multicentre, retrospective cohort study of 3495 men who underwent radical prostatectomy for localised prostate cancer. Only men with negative preoperative staging were included. We assessed the relationship between lymphovascular invasion and adverse pathological features using multivariable logistic regression models. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were created to evaluate the impact of lymphovascular invasion on oncological outcomes. Lymphovascular invasion was identified in 19% (n = 653) of men undergoing prostatectomy. There was an increased incidence of lymphovascular invasion-positive disease in men with high International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grade and non-organ-confined disease (p < 0.01). The presence of lymphovascular invasion significantly increased the likelihood of pathological node-positive disease on multivariable logistic regression analysis (OR 15, 95%CI 9.7-23.6). The presence of lymphovascular invasion at radical prostatectomy significantly increased the risk of biochemical recurrence (HR 2.0, 95%CI 1.6-2.4). Furthermore, lymphovascular invasion significantly increased the risk of metastasis in the whole cohort (HR 2.2, 95%CI 1.6-3.0). The same relationship was seen across D'Amico risk groups. The presence of lymphovascular invasion at the time of radical prostatectomy is associated with aggressive prostate cancer disease features and is an indicator of poor oncological prognosis

An Integrated TCGA Pan-Cancer Clinical Data Resource to Drive High-Quality Survival Outcome Analytics

For a decade, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) program collected clinicopathologic annotation data along with multi-platform molecular profiles of more than 11,000 human tumors across 33 different cancer types. TCGA clinical data contain key features representing the democratized nature of the data collection process. To ensure proper use of this large clinical dataset associated with genomic features, we developed a standardized dataset named the TCGA Pan-Cancer Clinical Data Resource (TCGA-CDR), which includes four major clinical outcome endpoints. In addition to detailing major challenges and statistical limitations encountered during the effort of integrating the acquired clinical data, we present a summary that includes endpoint usage recommendations for each cancer type. These TCGA-CDR findings appear to be consistent with cancer genomics studies independent of the TCGA effort and provide opportunities for investigating cancer biology using clinical correlates at an unprecedented scale. Analysis of clinicopathologic annotations for over 11,000 cancer patients in the TCGA program leads to the generation of TCGA Clinical Data Resource, which provides recommendations of clinical outcome endpoint usage for 33 cancer types

Internet-based prevention of posttraumatic stress symptoms in injured trauma patients: design of a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Injured trauma victims are at risk of developing Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and other post-trauma psychopathology. So far, interventions using cognitive behavioral techniques (CBT) have proven most efficacious in treating early PTSD in highly symptomatic individuals. No early intervention for the prevention of PTSD for all victims has yet proven effective. In the acute psychosocial care for trauma victims, there is a clear need for easily applicable, accessible, cost-efficient early interventions. Objective: To describe the design of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating the effectiveness of a brief Internet-based early intervention that incorporates CBT techniques with the aim of reducing acute psychological distress and preventing long-term PTSD symptoms in injured trauma victims. Method: In a two armed RCT, 300 injured trauma victims from two Level-1 trauma centers in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, will be assigned to an intervention or a control group. Inclusion criteria are: being 18 years of age or older, having experienced a traumatic event according to the diagnostic criteria of the DSM-IV and understanding the Dutch language. The intervention group will be given access to the intervention&#x0027;s website (www.traumatips.nl), and are specifically requested to login within the first month postinjury. The primary clinical study outcome is PTSD symptom severity. Secondary outcomes include symptoms of depression and anxiety, quality of life, and social support. In addition, a cost-effectiveness analysis of the intervention will be performed. Data are collected at one week post-injury, prior to first login (baseline), and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Analyses will be on an intention-to-treat basis. Discussion: The results will provide more insight into the effects of preventive interventions in general, and Internet-based early interventions specifically, on acute stress reactions and PTSD, in an injured population, during the acute phase after trauma. We will discuss possible strengths and limitations

Sodium selenate as a disease-modifying treatment for progressive supranuclear palsy: Protocol for a phase 2, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

INTRODUCTION: Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) is a neurodegenerative disorder for which there are currently no disease-modifying therapies. The neuropathology of PSP is associated with the accumulation of hyperphosphorylated tau in the brain. We have previously shown that protein phosphatase 2 activity in the brain is upregulated by sodium selenate, which enhances dephosphorylation. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of sodium selenate as a disease-modifying therapy for PSP. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This will be a multi-site, phase 2b, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of sodium selenate. 70 patients will be recruited at six Australian academic hospitals and research institutes. Following the confirmation of eligibility at screening, participants will be randomised (1:1) to receive 52 weeks of active treatment (sodium selenate; 15 mg three times a day) or matching placebo. Regular safety and efficacy visits will be completed throughout the study period. The primary study outcome is change in an MRI volume composite (frontal lobe+midbrain-3rd ventricle) over the treatment period. Analysis will be with a general linear model (GLM) with the MRI composite at 52 weeks as the dependent variable, treatment group as an independent variable and baseline MRI composite as a covariate. Secondary outcomes are change in PSP rating scale, clinical global impression of change (clinician) and change in midbrain mean diffusivity. These outcomes will also be analysed with a GLM as above, with the corresponding baseline measure entered as a covariate. Secondary safety and tolerability outcomes are frequency of serious adverse events, frequency of down-titration occurrences and frequency of study discontinuation. Additional, as yet unplanned, exploratory outcomes will include analyses of other imaging, cognitive and biospecimen measures. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Alfred Health Ethics Committee (594/20). Each participant or their legally authorised representative and their study partner will provide written informed consent at trial commencement. The results of the study will be presented at national and international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12620001254987).Lucy Vivash, Kelly L Bertram, Charles B Malpas, Cassandra Marotta, Ian H Harding, Scott Kolbe, Joanne Fielding, Meaghan Clough, Simon J G Lewis, Stephen Tisch, Andrew H Evans, John D O, Sullivan, Thomas Kimber, David Darby, Leonid Churilov, Meng Law, Christopher M Hovens, Dennis Velakoulis, Terence J O, Brie

The impact of childhood abuse and recent stress on serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor and the moderating role of BDNF Val66Met

Contains fulltext : 98431.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)RATIONALE: Recent findings show lowered brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) levels in major depressive disorder (MDD). Exposure to stressful life events may (partly) underlie these BDNF reductions, but little is known about the effects of early or recent life stress on BDNF levels. Moreover, the effects of stressful events on BDNF levels may in part be conditional upon a common variant on the BDNF gene (Val(66)Met; RS6265), with the Met allele being associated with a decrease in activity-dependent secretion of BDNF compared to the Val allele. METHODS: We investigated cross-sectionally in 1,435 individuals with lifetime MDD the impact of childhood abuse (CA) and recent life events on serum BDNF levels and assessed whether the impact of these events was moderated by the BDNF Val(66)Met polymorphism. RESULTS: Overall, BDNF Met carriers had reduced serum BDNF levels when exposed to CA in a dose-dependent way. Moreover, exposure to recent life events was also associated with decreases in BDNF levels, but this was independent of BDNF Val(66)Met. Moreover, when not exposed to CA, Met carriers had higher BDNF levels than the Val/Val individuals, who did not show decreases in BDNF associated with CA. Finally, these findings were only apparent in the MDD group without comorbid anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: These gene-environment interactions on serum BDNF levels suggest that Met carriers are particularly sensitive to (early) stressful life events, which extends previous findings on the moderating role of the BDNF Val(66)Met polymorphism in the face of stressful life events

Genomic evolution shapes prostate cancer disease type

H.R.F. was supported by a Cancer Research UK Programme Grant to Simon Tavaré (C14303/A17197), as, partially, was A.G.L. A.G.L. acknowledges the support of the University of St Andrews. A.G.L. and J.H.R.F. also acknowledge the support of the Cambridge Cancer Research Fund.The development of cancer is an evolutionary process involving the sequential acquisition of genetic alterations that disrupt normal biological processes, enabling tumor cells to rapidly proliferate and eventually invade and metastasize to other tissues. We investigated the genomic evolution of prostate cancer through the application of three separate classification methods, each designed to investigate a different aspect of tumor evolution. Integrating the results revealed the existence of two distinct types of prostate cancer that arise from divergent evolutionary trajectories, designated as the Canonical and Aalternative evolutionary disease types. We therefore propose the evotype model for prostate cancer evolution wherein Alternative-evotype tumors diverge from those of the Canonical-evotype through the stochastic accumulation of genetic alterations associated with disruptions to androgen receptor DNA binding. Our model unifies many previous molecular observations, providing a powerful new framework to investigate prostate cancer disease progression.Peer reviewe