Dynamics of an Idealized Fluid Model for Investigating Convective-scale Data Assimilation

An idealized fluid model of convective-scale numerical weather prediction, intended for use in inexpensive data assimilation experiments, is described here and its distinctive dynamics are investigated. The model modifies the rotating shallow water equations to include some simplified dynamics of cumulus convection and associated precipitation, extending and improving the model of Würsch and Craig. Changes to this original model are the removal of ad hoc diffusive terms and the addition of Coriolis rotation terms, leading to a so-called 1.5-dimensional model. Despite the non-trivial modifications to the parent equations, it is shown that this shallow water type model remains hyperbolic in character and can be integrated accordingly using a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for nonconservative hyperbolic systems of partial differential equations. Combined with methods to ensure well-balancedness and non-negativity, the resulting numerical solver is novel, efficient and robust. Classical numerical experiments in the shallow water theory, such as the Rossby geostrophic adjustment and flow over topography, are reproduced for the standard shallow water model and used to highlight the modified dynamics of the new model. In particular, it exhibits important aspects of convective-scale dynamics relating to the disruption of large-scale balance and is able to simulate other features related to convecting and precipitating weather systems. Our analysis here and preliminary results suggest that the model is well suited for efficiently and robustly investigating data assimilation schemes in an idealized ‘convective-scale’ forecast assimilation framework

Coupled Map Modeling for Cloud Dynamics

A coupled map model for cloud dynamics is proposed, which consists of the successive operations of the physical processes; buoyancy, diffusion, viscosity, adiabatic expansion, fall of a droplet by gravity, descent flow dragged by the falling droplet, and advection. Through extensive simulations, the phases corresponding to stratus, cumulus, stratocumulus and cumulonimbus are found, with the change of the ground temperature and the moisture of the air. They are characterized by order parameters such as the cluster number, perimeter-to-area ratio of a cloud, and Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure, LaTeX, mpeg simulations available at http://aurora.elsip.hokudai.ac.jp

Convection in nanofluids with a particle-concentration-dependent thermal conductivity

Thermal convection in nanofluids is investigated by means of a continuum model for binary-fluid mixtures, with a thermal conductivity depending on the local concentration of colloidal particles. The applied temperature difference between the upper and the lower boundary leads via the Soret effect to a variation of the colloid concentration and therefore to a spatially varying heat conductivity. An increasing difference between the heat conductivity of the mixture near the colder and the warmer boundary results in a shift of the onset of convection to higher values of the Rayleigh number for positive values of the separation ratio psi>0 and to smaller values in the range psi<0. Beyond some critical difference of the thermal conductivity between the two boundaries, we find an oscillatory onset of convection not only for psi<0, but also within a finite range of psi>0. This range can be extended by increasing the difference in the thermal conductivity and it is bounded by two codimension-2 bifurcations.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Physical Review

TRMM Latent Heating Retrieval and Comparisons with Field Campaigns and Large-Scale Analyses

Rainfall production is a fundamental process within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it represents both a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, and its energetics corollary, latent heating (LH), is one of the principal sources of atmospheric diabatic heating. Latent heat release itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The vertical distribution of LH has a strong influence on the atmosphere, controlling large-scale tropical circulations, exciting and modulating tropical waves, maintaining the intensities of tropical cyclones, and even providing the energetics of midlatitude cyclones and other mobile midlatitude weather systems. Moreover, the processes associated with LH result in significant non-linear changes in atmospheric radiation through the creation, dissipation and modulation of clouds and precipitation. Yanai et al. (1973) utilized the meteorological data collected from a sounding network to present a pioneering work on thermodynamic budgets, which are referred to as the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). Yanai's paper motivated the development of satellite-based LH algorithms and provided a theoretical background for imposing large-scale advective forcing into cloud-resolving models (CRMs). These CRM-simulated LH and Q1 data have been used to generate the look-up tables used in LH algorithms. This paper examines the retrieval, validation, and application of LH estimates based on rain rate quantities acquired from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM). TRMM was launched in November 1997 as a joint enterprise between the American and Japanese space agencies -- with overriding goals of providing accurate four-dimensional estimates of rainfall and LH over the global Tropics and subtropics equatorward of 35o. Other literature has acknowledged the achievement of the first goal of obtaining an accurate rainfall climatology. This paper describes the second major goal of obtaining credible LH estimates as well as their applications within TRMM's zone of coverage, the standard TRMM LH products, and areas for further improvement

Management of uncomplicated malaria in febrile under five-year-old children by community health workers in Madagascar: reliability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early diagnosis, as well as prompt and effective treatment of uncomplicated malaria, are essential components of the anti-malaria strategy in Madagascar to prevent severe malaria, reduce mortality and limit malaria transmission. The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of the malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) used by community health workers (CHWs) by comparing RDT results with two reference methods (microscopy and Polymerase Chain Reaction, PCR).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Eight CHWs in two districts, each with a different level of endemic malaria transmission, were trained to use RDTs in the management of febrile children under five years of age. RDTs were performed by CHWs in all febrile children who consulted for fever. In parallel, retrospective parasitological diagnoses were made by microscopy and PCR. The results of these different diagnostic methods were analysed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the RDTs administered by the CHWs. The stability of the RDTs stored by CHWs was also evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 190 febrile children with suspected malaria who visited CHWs between February 2009 and February 2010, 89.5% were found to be positive for malaria parasites by PCR, 51.6% were positive by microscopy and 55.8% were positive by RDT. The performance accuracy of the RDTs used by CHWs in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values was greater than 85%. Concordance between microscopy and RDT, estimated by the Kappa value was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75-0.91). RDTs stored by CHWs for 24 months were capable of detecting <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>in blood at a level of 200 parasites/μl.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Introduction of easy-to-use diagnostic tools, such as RDTs, at the community level appears to be an effective strategy for improving febrile patient management and for reducing excessive use of anti-malarial drugs.</p

The dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the monsoon over southern India: new observations from the INCOMPASS IOP

Some of the highest summer monsoon rainfall in South Asia falls on the windward slopes of the Western Ghats mountains on India’s west coast and offshore over the eastern Arabian Sea. Understanding of the processes determining the spatial distribution and temporal variability of this region remains incomplete. In this paper, new Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS) aircraft and ground-based measurements of the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats and upstream of them are presented and placed within the context of remote sensing observations and reanalysis. The transition from widespread rainfall over the eastern Arabian Sea to rainfall over the Western Ghats is documented in high spatial and temporal resolution. Heavy rainfall offshore during the campaign was associated primarily with mid-tropospheric humidity, secondarily with sea surface temperature, and only weakly with orographic blocking. A mid-tropospheric dry intrusion suppressed deep convection offshore in the latter half of the campaign, allowing the build-up of low-level humidity in the onshore flow and enhancing rainfall over the mountains. Rainfall on the lee side of the Western Ghats occurred during the latter half of the campaign in association with enhanced mesoscale easterly upslope flow. Diurnal cycles in rainfall offshore (maximum in the morning) and on the mountains (maximum in the afternoon) were observed. Considerable zonal and temporal variability was seen in the offshore boundary layer, suggesting the presence of convective downdrafts and cold pools. Persistent drying of the subcloud mixed layer several hundred kilometres off the coast was observed, suggesting strong mixing between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. These observations provide quantitative targets to test models and suggest hypotheses on the physical mechanisms determining the distribution and variability in rainfall in the Western Ghats region