Evaluating tropical phytoplankton phenology metrics using contemporary tools

The timing of phytoplankton growth (phenology) in tropical oceans is a crucial factor influencing the survival rates of higher trophic levels, food web structure and the functioning of coral reef ecosystems. Phytoplankton phenology is thus categorised as an ‘ecosystem indicator’, which can be utilised to assess ecosystem health in response to environmental and climatic perturbations. Ocean-colour remote sensing is currently the only technique providing global, long-term, synoptic estimates of phenology. However, due to limited available in situ datasets, studies dedicated to the validation of satellite-derived phenology metrics are sparse. The recent development of autonomous oceanographic observation platforms provides an opportunity to bridge this gap. Here, we use satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) observations, in conjunction with a Biogeochemical-Argo dataset, to assess the capability of remote sensing to estimate phytoplankton phenology metrics in the northern Red Sea – a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We find that phenology metrics derived from both contemporary platforms match with a high degree of precision (within the same 5-day period). The remotely-sensed surface signatures reflect the overall water column dynamics and successfully capture Chl-a variability related to convective mixing. Our findings offer important insights into the capability of remote sensing for monitoring food availability in tropical marine ecosystems, and support the use of satellite-derived phenology as an ecosystem indicator for marine management strategies in regions with limited data availability

Continuity of Local Time: An applied perspective

Continuity of local time for Brownian motion ranks among the most notable mathematical results in the theory of stochastic processes. This article addresses its implications from the point of view of applications. In particular an extension of previous results on an explicit role of continuity of (natural) local time is obtained for applications to recent classes of problems in physics, biology and finance involving discontinuities in a dispersion coefficient. The main theorem and its corollary provide physical principles that relate macro scale continuity of deterministic quantities to micro scale continuity of the (stochastic) local time.Comment: To appear in: "The fascination of Probability, Statistics and Their Applications. In honour of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen on his 80th birthday

Organic carbon export and loss rates in the Red Sea

The export and fate of organic carbon in the mesopelagic zone are still poorly understood and quantified due to lack of observations. We exploited data from a BGC‐Argo float that was deployed in the Red Sea to study how a warm and hypoxic environment can affect the fate of the organic carbon in the ocean’s interior. We observed that only 10% of the particulate organic carbon (POC) exported survived at depth due to remineralization processes in the upper mesopelagic zone. We also found that POC exported was rapidly degraded in a first stage and slowly in a second one, which may be dependent on the palatability of the organic matter. We observed that AOU‐based loss rates (a proxy of the remineralization of total organic matter) were significantly higher than the POC‐based loss rates, likely because changes in AOU are mainly attributed to changes in dissolved organic carbon. Finally, we showed that POC‐ and AOU‐based loss rates could be expressed as a function of temperature and oxygen concentration. These findings advance our understanding of the biological carbon pump and mesopelagic ecosystem

Higher resolution total velocity Vt and Va finite-volume formulations on cell-centred structured and unstructured grids

Novel cell-centred finite-volume formulations are presented for incompressible and immiscible two-phase flow with both gravity and capillary pressure effects on structured and unstructured grids. The Darcy-flux is approximated by a control-volume distributed multipoint flux approximation (CVD-MPFA) coupled with a higher resolution approximation for convective transport. The CVD-MPFA method is used for Darcy-flux approximation involving pressure, gravity, and capillary pressure flux operators. Two IMPES formulations for coupling the pressure equation with fluid transport are presented. The first is based on the classical total velocity Vt fractional flow (Buckley Leverett) formulation, and the second is based on a more recent Va formulation. The CVD-MPFA method is employed for both Vt and Va formulations. The advantages of both coupled formulations are contrasted. The methods are tested on a range of structured and unstructured quadrilateral and triangular grids. The tests show that the resulting methods are found to be comparable for a number of classical cases, including channel flow problems. However, when gravity is present, flow regimes are identified where the Va formulation becomes locally unstable, in contrast to the total velocity formulation. The test cases also show the advantages of the higher resolution method compared to standard first-order single-point upstream weighting

Variance-based sensitivity analysis of oil spill predictions in the Red Sea region

To support accidental spill rapid response efforts, oil spill simulations may generally need to account for uncertainties concerning the nature and properties of the spill, which compound those inherent in model parameterizations. A full detailed account of these sources of uncertainty would however require prohibitive resources needed to sample a large dimensional space. In this work, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the possibility of restricting a priori the set of uncertain parameters, at least in the context of realistic simulations of oil spills in the Red Sea region spanning a two-week period following the oil release. The evolution of the spill is described using the simulation capabilities of Modelo Hidrodinâmico, driven by high-resolution metocean fields of the Red Sea (RS) was adopted to simulate accidental oil spills in the RS. Eight spill scenarios are considered in the analysis, which are carefully selected to account for the diversity of metocean conditions in the region. Polynomial chaos expansions are employed to propagate parametric uncertainties and efficiently estimate variance-based sensitivities. Attention is focused on integral quantities characterizing the transport, deformation, evaporation and dispersion of the spill. The analysis indicates that variability in these quantities may be suitably captured by restricting the set of uncertain inputs parameters, namely the wind coefficient, interfacial tension, API gravity, and viscosity. Thus, forecast variability and confidence intervals may be reasonably estimated in the corresponding four-dimensional input space

Bayesian inference of earthquake rupture models using polynomial chaos expansion

In this paper, we employed polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to understand earthquake rupture model responses to random fault plane properties. A sensitivity analysis based on our PC surrogate model suggests that the hypocenter location plays a dominant role in peak ground velocity (PGV) responses, while elliptical patch properties only show secondary impact. In addition, the PC surrogate model is utilized for Bayesian inference of the most likely underlying fault plane configuration in light of a set of PGV observations from a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). A restricted sampling approach is also developed to incorporate additional physical constraints on the fault plane configuration and to increase the sampling efficiency.</p

A global method for coupling transport with chemistry in heterogeneous porous media

Modeling reactive transport in porous media, using a local chemical equilibrium assumption, leads to a system of advection-diffusion PDE's coupled with algebraic equations. When solving this coupled system, the algebraic equations have to be solved at each grid point for each chemical species and at each time step. This leads to a coupled non-linear system. In this paper a global solution approach that enables to keep the software codes for transport and chemistry distinct is proposed. The method applies the Newton-Krylov framework to the formulation for reactive transport used in operator splitting. The method is formulated in terms of total mobile and total fixed concentrations and uses the chemical solver as a black box, as it only requires that on be able to solve chemical equilibrium problems (and compute derivatives), without having to know the solution method. An additional advantage of the Newton-Krylov method is that the Jacobian is only needed as an operator in a Jacobian matrix times vector product. The proposed method is tested on the MoMaS reactive transport benchmark.Comment: Computational Geosciences (2009) http://www.springerlink.com/content/933p55085742m203/?p=db14bb8c399b49979ba8389a3cae1b0f&pi=1

A Cell-Centred CVD-MPFA Finite Volume Method for Two-Phase Fluid Flow Problems with Capillary Heterogeneity and Discontinuity

A novel finite-volume method is presented for porous media flow simulation that is applicable to discontinuous capillary pressure fields. The method crucially retains the optimal single of freedom per control-volume being developed within the flux-continuous control-volume distributed multi-point flux approximation (CVD-MPFA) framework (Edwards and Rogers in Comput Geosci 02(04):259–290, 1998; Friis et al. in SIAM J Sci Comput 31(02):1192–1220, 2008) . The new methods enable critical subsurface flow processes involving oil and gas trapping to be correctly resolved on structured and unstructured grids. The results demonstrate the ability of the method to resolve flow with oil/gas trapping in the presence of a discontinuous capillary pressure field for diagonal and full-tensor permeability fields. In addition to an upwind approximation for the saturation equation flux, the importance of upwinding on capillary pressure flux via a novel hybrid formulation is demonstrated

Towards an end-to-end analysis and prediction system for weather, climate, and Marine applications in the Red Sea

AbstractThe Red Sea, home to the second-longest coral reef system in the world, is a vital resource for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Red Sea provides 90% of the Kingdom’s potable water by desalinization, supporting tourism, shipping, aquaculture, and fishing industries, which together contribute about 10%–20% of the country’s GDP. All these activities, and those elsewhere in the Red Sea region, critically depend on oceanic and atmospheric conditions. At a time of mega-development projects along the Red Sea coast, and global warming, authorities are working on optimizing the harnessing of environmental resources, including renewable energy and rainwater harvesting. All these require high-resolution weather and climate information. Toward this end, we have undertaken a multipronged research and development activity in which we are developing an integrated data-driven regional coupled modeling system. The telescopically nested components include 5-km- to 600-m-resolution atmospheric models to address weather and climate challenges, 4-km- to 50-m-resolution ocean models with regional and coastal configurations to simulate and predict the general and mesoscale circulation, 4-km- to 100-m-resolution ecosystem models to simulate the biogeochemistry, and 1-km- to 50-m-resolution wave models. In addition, a complementary probabilistic transport modeling system predicts dispersion of contaminant plumes, oil spill, and marine ecosystem connectivity. Advanced ensemble data assimilation capabilities have also been implemented for accurate forecasting. Resulting achievements include significant advancement in our understanding of the regional circulation and its connection to the global climate, development, and validation of long-term Red Sea regional atmospheric–oceanic–wave reanalyses and forecasting capacities. These products are being extensively used by academia, government, and industry in various weather and marine studies and operations, environmental policies, renewable energy applications, impact assessment, flood forecasting, and more.</jats:p

Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model

We present a variational assimilation system around a coarse resolution Earth System Model (ESM) and apply it for estimating initial conditions and parameters of the model. The system is based on derivative information that is efficiently provided by the ESM's adjoint, which has been generated through automatic differentiation of the model's source code. In our variational approach, the length of the feasible assimilation window is limited by the size of the domain in control space over which the approximation by the derivative is valid. This validity domain is reduced by non-smooth process representations. We show that in this respect the ocean component is less critical than the atmospheric component. We demonstrate how the feasible assimilation window can be extended to several weeks by modifying the implementation of specific process representations and by switching off processes such as precipitation