An Application of Monte-Carlo-Based Sensitivity Analysis on the Overlap in Discriminant Analysis

Discriminant analysis (DA) is used for the measurement of estimates of a discriminant function by minimizing their group misclassifications to predict group membership of newly sampled data. A major source of misclassification in DA is due to the overlapping of groups. The uncertainty in the input variables and model parameters needs to be properly characterized in decision making. This study combines DEA-DA with a sensitivity analysis approach to an assessment of the influence of banks’ variables on the overall variance in overlap in a DA in order to determine which variables are most significant. A Monte-Carlo-based sensitivity analysis is considered for computing the set of first-order sensitivity indices of the variables to estimate the contribution of each uncertain variable. The results show that the uncertainties in the loans granted and different deposit variables are more significant than uncertainties in other banks’ variables in decision making

Water quality index development using fuzzy logic: A case study of the Karoon River of Iran

Determination of the status of water quality of a river or any other water source is highly indeterminate. It is necessary to have a competent model to predict the status of water quality and to show the type of water treatment that would be used to meet different demands. By exploring the behavior and limitations of conventional methods for quality evaluation, a better overall index for water quality in Iran and its application in Karoon River is proposed. Six variables are employed for the quality assessment. Numerical scales relating to the degree of quality are established for each variable to assess variations in quality and to convey findings in a comprehensive manner. The unit operates in a fuzzy logic mode including a fuzzification engine receiving a plurality of input variables on its input and being adapted to compute membership function parameters. A processor engine connected downstream of the fuzzification unit will produce fuzzy set, based on fuzzy variable namely dissolved oxygen (DO), total dissolved solids (TDS), turbidity, nitrate, fecal coliform and pH. It has a defuzzification unit which operates to translate the inference results into a discrete crisp value of water quality index. The development of the fuzzy model with one river system is explained in this paper. Water quality index in most countries is only referring to physico-chemical parameters due to great efforts needed to quantify the biological parameters. This study ensures a better method to include special parameters into water quality index due to superior capabilities of fuzzy logic in dealing with non-linear, complex and uncertain systems.Key words: Water quality index, fuzzification, monitoring, inference system

Modified Nonradial Supper Efficiency Models

Ranking Efficient Decision Making Units (DMUs) are an important issue in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This is one of the main areas for the researcher. Different methods for this purpose have been suggested. Appearing nonzero slack in optimal solution makes the method problematic. In this paper, we modify the nonradial supper efficiency model to remove this difficulty. Some numerical examples are solved by modified model

A New Method for Defuzzification and Ranking of Fuzzy Numbers Based on the Statistical Beta Distribution

Granular computing is an emerging computing theory and paradigm that deals with the processing of information granules, which are defined as a number of information entities grouped together due to their similarity, physical adjacency, or indistinguishability. In most aspects of human reasoning, these granules have an uncertain formation, so the concept of granularity of fuzzy information could be of special interest for the applications where fuzzy sets must be converted to crisp sets to avoid uncertainty. This paper proposes a novel method of defuzzification based on the mean value of statistical Beta distribution and an algorithm for ranking fuzzy numbers based on the crisp number ranking system on R. The proposed method is quite easy to use, but the main reason for following this approach is the equality of left spread, right spread, and mode of Beta distribution with their corresponding values in fuzzy numbers within (0,1) interval, in addition to the fact that the resulting method can satisfy all reasonable properties of fuzzy quantity ordering defined by Wang et al. The algorithm is illustrated through several numerical examples and it is then compared with some of the other methods provided by literature

Using Enhanced Russell Model to Solve Inverse Data Envelopment Analysis Problems

This paper studies the inverse data envelopment analysis using the nonradial enhanced Russell model. Necessary and sufficient conditions for inputs/outputs determination are introduced based on Pareto solutions of multiple-objective linear programming. In addition, an approach is investigated to identify extra input/lack output in each of input/output components (maximum/minimum reduction/increase amounts in each a of input/output components). In addition, the following question is addressed: if among a group of DMUs, it is required to increase inputs and outputs to a particular unit and assume that the DMU maintains its current efficiency level with respect to other DMUs, how much should the inputs and outputs of the DMU increase? This question is discussed as inverse data envelopment analysis problems, and a technique is suggested to answer this question. Necessary and sufficient conditions are established by employing Pareto solutions of multiple-objective linear programming as well

Generalized Super Efficiency Model for Ranking Efficient Decision Making Units in Data Envelopment Analysis

Abstract: In evaluating decision making units (DMU's) by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique, we encounter the situation in which more than one unit takes efficiency score of one. In such a case, some criteria should be considered to rank the DMU's. Some efficient techniques such as AP, MAJ,etc may be used in this way. For some sets of data, with special structure in models that above mentioned, may be infeasible and unstable. In this paper, a new model is developed that all the existing drawbacks of previously applied models remove. Some numerical examples are put forward

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden