Communicating geographical risks in crisis management : the need for research

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios

Communicating geographical risks in crisis management: The need for research

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatio-temporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatio-temporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatio-temporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e. difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios

Uncertainty handling during nuclear accidents.

In the years following Chernobyl, many reports and projects reflected on how to improve emergency management processes in dealing with an accidental offsite release of radiation at a nuclear facility. A common observation was the need to address the inevitable uncertainties. Various suggestions were made and some of these were researched in some depth. The Fukushima Daiichi Disaster has led to further reflections. However, many of the uncertainties inherent in responding to a threatened or actual release remain unaddressed in the analyses and model runs that are conducted to support the emergency managers in their decision making. They are often left to factor in allowances for the uncertainty through informal discussion and unsupported judgement, and the full range of sources of uncertainty may not be addressed. In this paper, we summarise the issues and report on a project which has investigated the handling of uncertainty in the UK’s national crisis cell. We suggest the R&D programmes needed to provide emergency managers with better guidance on uncertainty and how it may affect the consequences of taking different countermeasures

UK hazards from a large Icelandic effusive eruption. Effusive Eruption Modelling Project final report

In response to the recent introduction of large, long-lasting gas-rich volcanic eruptions to the UK National Risk Register (risk H55) a modelling project has been conducted to improve our understanding of potential hazards to the UK from such an eruption on Iceland. A precautionary “reasonable worst case” eruption scenario based on the 1783-1784 CE Laki eruption has been determined using the results of an expert elicitation of scientists. This scenario has been simulated 80 times using two different atmospheric chemistry and transport models (NAME and EMEP4UK) over 10 years of meteorology (2003-2012). The results provide information on the range of concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2), sulphate aerosol (SO4) and some halogen species that might be experienced in the UK during such an eruption and the likelihood of key thresholds being exceeded and the duration of their exceedance. Data for the surface and for a range of key flight altitudes have been produced. These are evaluated against the threshold bandings of the UK’s Air Quality Index (AQI). The impact on UK ecosystems has also been considered. The data are intended to be used by UK Government Departments for further research into the impacts on the aviation, health, environmental and agricultural sectors. The results show that the prevailing meteorological conditions are the key influence on which parts of the North Atlantic and European region are affected at any time. The results demonstrate that the UK is unlikely to be affected by week after week of significantly elevated concentrations; rather there will a number of short (hours to days) pollution episodes where concentrations at the surface would be elevated bove Moderate and High air quality index levels. This pattern reflects the generally changeable nature of the weather in the UK. At the surface, consecutive exceedance durations are longer for SO4 than SO2, and can be particularly lengthy (1-2 weeks) in the Low air quality index levels, which may be of relevance to health impact assessments. The indications of potential peak concentrations and their corresponding AQI exceedance probabilities within this report serve to inform national, high-level generic risk planning. For more specific response planning, a much larger modelling study with multiple eruption scenarios and a greater number of meteorological realisations would be needed

Conducting volcanic ash cloud exercises: practising forecast evaluation procedures and the pull-through of scientific advice to the London VAAC

The London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provides forecasts on the expected presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere to mitigate the risk to aviation. It is fundamentally important that operational capability is regularly tested through exercises, to guarantee an effective response to an event. We have developed exercises which practise the pull-through of scientific advice into the London VAAC, the forecast evaluation process, and the decision-making procedures and discussions needed for generating the best possible forecasts under real-time conditions. London VAAC dispersion model forecasts are evaluated against observations. To test this capability in an exercise, we must create observation data for a hypothetical event. We have developed new methodologies for generating and using simulated satellite and lidar retrievals. These simulated observations enable us to practise our ability to interpret, compare, and evaluate model output and observation data under real-time conditions. Forecast evaluation can benefit from an understanding of how different choices of model setup (input parameters), model physics, and driving meteorological data impact the predicted extent and concentration of ash. Through our exercises, we have practised comparing output from model simulations generated using different models, model setups, and meteorological data, supplied by different institutions. Our exercises also practise the communication and interaction between Met Office (UK) scientists supporting the London VAAC and external experts, enabling knowledge exchange and discussions on the interpretation of model output and observations, as we strive to deliver the best response capability for the aviation industry and stakeholders. In this paper, we outline our exercise methodology, including the use of simulated satellite and lidar observations, and the development of the strategy to compare output generated from different modelling systems. We outline the lessons learnt, including the benefits and challenges of conducting exercises which practise our ability to provide scientific advice for an operational response at the London VAAC

Urban heat mitigation by green and blue infrastructure: drivers, effectiveness, and future needs

The combination of urbanisation and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change. Yet, the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated by urban green-blue-grey infrastructures (GBGI), such as parks, wetlands, and engineered greening, which have the potential to effectively reduce summer air temperatures. Despite many reviews, the evidence bases on quantified GBGI cooling benefits remains partial and the practical recommendations for implementation are unclear. This systematic literature review synthesises the evidence base for heat mitigation and related co-benefits, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes recommendations for their implementation to maximise their benefits. After screening 27,486 papers, 202 were reviewed, based on 51 GBGI types categorised under 10 main divisions. Certain GBGI (green walls, parks, street trees) have been well-researched for their urban cooling capabilities. However, several other GBGI have received negligible (zoological garden, golf course, estuary) or minimal (private garden, allotment) attention. The most efficient air cooling was observed in botanical gardens (5.0±3.5°C), wetlands (4.9±3.2°C), green walls (4.1±4.2°C), street trees (3.8±3.1°C), and vegetated balconies (3.8±2.7°C). Under changing climate conditions (2070-2100) with consideration of RCP8.5, there is a shift in climate subtypes, either within the same climate zone (e.g., Dfa to Dfb and Cfb to Cfa) or across other climate zones (e.g., Dfb (continental warm-summer humid) to BSk (dry, cold semi-arid) and Cwa (temperate) to Am (tropical)). These shifts may result in lower efficiency for the current GBGI in the future. Given the importance of multiple services, it is crucial to balance their functionality, cooling performance, and other related co-benefits when planning for the future GBGI. This global GBGI heat mitigation inventory can assist policymakers and urban planners in prioritising effective interventions to reduce the risk of urban overheating, filling research gaps, and promoting community resilience

Urban case studies : general discussion

Urban case studies: general discussio

Urban heat mitigation by green and blue infrastructure: drivers, effectiveness, and future needs

The combination of urbanisation and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change. Yet, the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated by urban green-blue-grey infrastructures (GBGI), such as parks, wetlands, and engineered greening, which have the potential to effectively reduce summer air temperatures. Despite many reviews, the evidence bases on quantified GBGI cooling benefits remains partial and the practical recommendations for implementation are unclear. This systematic literature review synthesises the evidence base for heat mitigation and related co-benefits, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes recommendations for their implementation to maximise their benefits. After screening 27,486 papers, 202 were reviewed, based on 51 GBGI types categorised under 10 main divisions. Certain GBGI (green walls, parks, street trees) have been well-researched for their urban cooling capabilities. However, several other GBGI have received negligible (zoological garden, golf course, estuary) or minimal (private garden, allotment) attention. The most efficient air cooling was observed in botanical gardens (5.0±3.5°C), wetlands (4.9±3.2°C), green walls (4.1±4.2°C), street trees (3.8±3.1°C), and vegetated balconies (3.8±2.7°C). Under changing climate conditions (2070-2100) with consideration of RCP8.5, there is a shift in climate subtypes, either within the same climate zone (e.g., Dfa to Dfb and Cfb to Cfa) or across other climate zones (e.g., Dfb (continental warm-summer humid) to BSk (dry, cold semi-arid) and Cwa (temperate) to Am (tropical)). These shifts may result in lower efficiency for the current GBGI in the future. Given the importance of multiple services, it is crucial to balance their functionality, cooling performance, and other related co-benefits when planning for the future GBGI. This global GBGI heat mitigation inventory can assist policymakers and urban planners in prioritising effective interventions to reduce the risk of urban overheating, filling research gaps, and promoting community resilience

25th annual computational neuroscience meeting: CNS-2016

The same neuron may play different functional roles in the neural circuits to which it belongs. For example, neurons in the Tritonia pedal ganglia may participate in variable phases of the swim motor rhythms [1]. While such neuronal functional variability is likely to play a major role the delivery of the functionality of neural systems, it is difficult to study it in most nervous systems. We work on the pyloric rhythm network of the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion (STG) [2]. Typically network models of the STG treat neurons of the same functional type as a single model neuron (e.g. PD neurons), assuming the same conductance parameters for these neurons and implying their synchronous firing [3, 4]. However, simultaneous recording of PD neurons shows differences between the timings of spikes of these neurons. This may indicate functional variability of these neurons. Here we modelled separately the two PD neurons of the STG in a multi-neuron model of the pyloric network. Our neuron models comply with known correlations between conductance parameters of ionic currents. Our results reproduce the experimental finding of increasing spike time distance between spikes originating from the two model PD neurons during their synchronised burst phase. The PD neuron with the larger calcium conductance generates its spikes before the other PD neuron. Larger potassium conductance values in the follower neuron imply longer delays between spikes, see Fig. 17.Neuromodulators change the conductance parameters of neurons and maintain the ratios of these parameters [5]. Our results show that such changes may shift the individual contribution of two PD neurons to the PD-phase of the pyloric rhythm altering their functionality within this rhythm. Our work paves the way towards an accessible experimental and computational framework for the analysis of the mechanisms and impact of functional variability of neurons within the neural circuits to which they belong