Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

Monthly mean wind direction and wind speed aggregated for a 64-year period from NCEP reanalysis data for 60 NCEP grid points used for the Asia-Pacific case study. (CSV 1 kb

The DiPEP (Diagnosis of PE in Pregnancy) biomarker study: An observational cohort study augmented with additional cases to determine the diagnostic utility of biomarkers for suspected venous thromboembolism during pregnancy and puerperium

This study aimed to estimate the diagnostic utility of biomarkers for suspected venous thromboembolism (VTE) in pregnancy and the puerperium. Research nurses/midwives collected blood samples from 310 pregnant/postpartum women with suspected pulmonary emboli (PE) and 18 with diagnosed deep vein thrombosis (DVT). VTE was diagnosed using imaging, treatment and adverse outcome data. Primary analysis was limited to women with conclusive imaging (36 with VTE, 247 without). The area under the curve (AUC) for each biomarker was: activated partial thromboplastin time 0·669 (95% confidence interval 0·570-0·768), B-type natriuretic peptide 0·549 (0·453-0·645), C-reactive protein 0·542 (0·445-0·639), Clauss fibrinogen 0·589 (0·476-0·701), D-Dimer (by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) 0·668 (0·561-0·776), near-patient D-Dimer 0·651 (0·545-0·758), mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide 0·524 (0·418-0·630), prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 0·562 (0·462-0·661), plasmin-antiplasmin complexes 0·639 (0·536-0·742), prothombin time 0·613 (0·508-0·718), thrombin generation lag time 0·702 (0·598-0·806), thrombin generation endogenous potential 0·559 (0·437-0·681), thrombin generation peak 0·596 (0·478-0·715), thrombin generation time to peak 0·655 (0·541-0·769), soluble tissue factor 0·531 (0·424-0·638) and serum troponin 0·597 (0·499-0·695). No diagnostically useful threshold for diagnosing or ruling out VTE was identified. In pregnancy and the puerperium, conventional and candidate biomarkers have no utility either for their negative or positive predictive value in the diagnosis of VTE

Selecting pregnant or postpartum women with suspected pulmonary embolism for diagnostic imaging: the DiPEP diagnostic study with decision-analysis modelling

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a leading cause of death in pregnancy and post partum, but the symptoms of PE are common in normal pregnancy. Simple diagnostic tests are needed to select women for diagnostic imaging. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the accuracy, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers for selecting pregnant or postpartum women with a suspected PE for imaging. DESIGN: An expert consensus study to develop new clinical decision rules, a case-control study of women with a diagnosed PE or a suspected PE, a biomarker study of women with a suspected PE or diagnosed deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) and decision-analysis modelling. SETTING: Emergency departments and consultant-led maternity units. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant/postpartum women with a diagnosed PE from any hospital reporting to the UK Obstetric Surveillance System research platform and pregnant/postpartum women with a suspected PE or diagnosed DVT at 11 prospectively recruiting sites. INTERVENTIONS: Clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity, area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and health-care costs. RESULTS: The primary analysis involved 181 women with PE and 259 women without PE in the case-control study and 18 women with DVT, 18 with PE and 247 women without either in the biomarker study. Most clinical features showed no association with PE. The AUROC curves for the clinical decision rules were as follows: primary consensus, 0.626; sensitive consensus, 0.620; specific consensus, 0.589; PE rule-out criteria, 0.621; simplified Geneva score, 0.579; Wells's PE criteria (permissive), 0.577; and Wells's PE criteria (strict), 0.732. The sensitivities and specificities of the D-dimer measurement were 88.4% and 8.8%, respectively, using a standard threshold, and 69.8% and 32.8%, respectively, using a pregnancy-specific threshold. Previous venous thromboembolism, long-haul travel, multiple pregnancy, oxygen saturation, recent surgery, temperature and PE-related chest radiograph abnormality were predictors of PE on multivariable analysis. We were unable to derive a rule through multivariable analysis or recursive partitioning with adequate accuracy. The AUROC curves for the biomarkers were as follows: activated partial thromboplastin time - 0.669, B-type natriuretic peptide - 0.549, C-reactive protein - 0.542, Clauss fibrinogen - 0.589, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay D-dimer - 0.668, Innovance D-dimer (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Products GmbH, distributed by Sysmex UK Ltd, Milton Keynes, UK) - 0.651, mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MRproANP) - 0.524, prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 - 0.562, plasmin-antiplasmin - 0.639, Prothombin time - 0.613, thrombin generation lag time - 0.702, thrombin generation endogenous potential - 0.559, thrombin generation peak - 0.596, thrombin generation time to peak - 0.655, tissue factor - 0.531 and troponin - 0.597. The repeat analysis excluding women who had received anticoagulation was limited by the small number of women with PE (n = 4). The health economic analysis showed that a strategy of scanning all women with a suspected PE accrued more QALYs and incurred fewer costs than any selective strategy based on a clinical decision rule and was therefore the dominant strategy. LIMITATIONS: The findings apply specifically to the diagnostic assessment of women with a suspected PE in secondary care. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical features, decision rules and biomarkers do not accurately, effectively or cost-effectively select pregnant or postpartum women with a suspected PE for diagnostic imaging. FUTURE WORK: New diagnostic technologies need to be developed to detect PE in pregnancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN21245595. FUNDING DETAILS: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 47. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

A Symmetric Approach to Compilation and Decompilation

Just as specializing a source interpreter can achieve compilation from a source language to a target language, we observe that specializing a target interpreter can achieve compilation from the target language to the source language. In both cases, the key issue is the choice of whether to perform an evaluation or to emit code that represents this evaluation. We substantiate this observation by specializing two source interpreters and two target interpreters. We first consider a source language of arithmetic expressions and a target language for a stack machine, and then the lambda-calculus and the SECD-machine language. In each case, we prove that the target-to-source compiler is a left inverse of the source-to-target compiler, i.e., it is a decompiler. In the context of partial evaluation, compilation by source-interpreter specialization is classically referred to as a Futamura projection. By symmetry, it seems logical to refer to decompilation by target-interpreter specialization as a Futamura embedding

Increasing follow-up questionnaire response rates in a randomized controlled trial of telehealth for depression: three embedded controlled studies

Background: Attrition is problematic in trials, and may be exacerbated in longer studies, telehealth trials and participants with depression – three features of The Healthlines Study. Advance notification, including a photograph and using action-oriented email subject lines might increase response rates, but require further investigation. We examined the effectiveness of these interventions in three embedded Healthlines studies. Methods: Based in different trial sites, participants with depression were alternately allocated to be pre-called or not ahead of the 8-month follow-up questionnaire (Study 1), randomized to receive a research team photograph or not with their 12-month questionnaire (Study 2), and randomized to receive an action-oriented (‘ACTION REQUIRED’) or standard (‘Questionnaire reminder’) 12-month email reminder (Study 3). Participants could complete online or postal questionnaires, and received up to five questionnaire reminders. The primary outcome was completion of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Secondary outcome measures were the number of reminders and time to questionnaire completion. Results: Of a total of 609 Healthlines depression participants, 190, 251 and 231 participants were included in Studies 1–3 (intervention: 95, 126 and 115), respectively. Outcome completion was ≥90 % across studies, with no differences between trial arms (Study 1: OR 0.38, 95 % CI 0.07–2.10; Study 2: OR 0.84, 95 % CI 0.26–2.66; Study 3: OR 0.53 95 % CI 0.19–1.49). Pre-called participants were less likely to require a reminder (48.4 % vs 62.1 %, OR 0.41, 95 % CI 0.21–0.78), required fewer reminders (adjusted difference in means −0.67, 95 % CI −1.13 to −0.20), and completed follow-up quicker (median 8 vs 15 days, HR 1.35, 95 % CI 1.00–1.82) than control subjects. There were no significant between-group differences in Studies 2 or 3. Conclusions: Eventual response rates in this trial were high, with no further improvement from these interventions. While the photograph and email interventions were ineffective, pre-calling participants reduced time to completion. This strategy might be helpful when the timing of study completion is important. Researchers perceived a substantial benefit from the reduction in reminders with pre-calling, despite no overall decrease in net effort after accounting for pre-notification

Landslides Triggered by the MW 7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake, New Zealand

The MW 7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake generated more than 10000 landslides over a total area of about 10000 km2, with the majority concentrated in a smaller area of about 3600 km2. The largest landslide triggered by the earthquake had an approximate volume of 20 (±2) M m3, with a runout distance of about 2.7 km, forming a dam on the Hapuku River. In this paper, we present version 1.0 of the landslide inventory we have created for this event. We use the inventory presented in this paper to identify and discuss some of the controls on the spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake. Our main findings are (1) the number of medium to large landslides (source area ≥10000 m2) triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake is smaller than for similar sized landslides triggered by similar magnitude earthquakes in New Zealand; (2) seven of the largest eight landslides (from 5 to 20 x 106 m3) occurred on faults that ruptured to the surface during the earthquake; (3) the average landslide density within 200 m of a mapped surface fault rupture is three times that at a distance of 2500 m or more from a mapped surface fault rupture ; (4) the “distance to fault” predictor variable, when used as a proxy for ground-motion intensity, and when combined with slope angle, geology and elevation variables, has more power in predicting landslide probability than the modelled peak ground acceleration or peak ground velocity; and (5) for the same slope angles, the coastal slopes have landslide point densities that are an order of magnitude greater than those in similar materials on the inland slopes, but their source areas are significantly smaller