Convergence of Consumption Structure

Purpose of this paper is to analyze the convergence of the consumption structure, both at the empirical and the theoretical levels. The basic empirical result is that the consumption structure converges quite quickly. We feel that the income effect is not sufficient to explain this high speed. That is why we introduce some post-Keynesian motives of consumer behaviour. We present a model of the dynamics of consumption structure and describe different simulation experiments with this model. These experiments are based on the actual data about consumers in the Czech Republic and in Germany (in fact, we approximate by German consumers the old EU members’ consumers). The results of simulations show that the behavior of the model really leads to the convergence of the consumption structure in the Czech Republic and the old EU members, so the post-Keynesian motives of consumer behavior are among possible explanations of the empirical fact of convergence.fiscal convergence; consumption; post-Keynesian theory; model; simulation

Analysis of ecosystem services provision in the Colombian Amazon using participatory research and mapping techniques

Over the last two decades indigenous peoples in the lower Caquetá River basin in Colombia have experienced detrimental changes in the provision of important ecosystem services in ways that have significant implications for the maintenance of their traditional livelihoods. To assess these changes we conducted eight participatory mapping activities and convened 22 focus group discussions. We focused the analysis on two types of change: (1) changes in the location of ecosystem services provisioning areas and (2) changes in the stock of ecosystem services. The focal ecosystem services include services such as provision of food, raw materials and medicinal resources. Results from the study show that in the past two decades the demand for food and raw materials has intensified and, as a result, locations of provisioning areas and the stocks of ecosystem services have changed. We found anecdotal evidence that these changes correlate well with socio-economic factors such as greater need for income generation, change in livelihood practices and consumption patterns. We discuss the use of participatory mapping techniques in the context of marginalized and data-poor regions. We also show how this kind of information can strengthen existing ecosystem-based management strategies used by indigenous peoples in the Colombian Amazon

A methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment

Ecosystem Services (ES) are an established conceptual framework for attributing value to the benefits that nature provides to humans. As the promise of robust ES-driven management is put to the test, shortcomings in our ability to accurately measure, map, and value ES have surfaced. On the research side, mainstream methods for ES assessment still fall short of addressing the complex, multi-scale biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics inherent in ES provision, flow, and use. On the practitioner side, application of methods remains onerous due to data and model parameterization requirements. Further, it is increasingly clear that the dominant one model fits all paradigm is often ill-suited to address the diversity of real-world management situations that exist across the broad spectrum of coupled human-natural systems. This article introduces an integrated ES modeling methodology, named ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services), which aims to introduce improvements on these fronts. To improve conceptual detail and representation of ES dynamics, it adopts a uniform conceptualization of ES that gives equal emphasis to their production, flow and use by society, while keeping model complexity low enough to enable rapid and inexpensive assessment in many contexts and for multiple services. To improve fit to diverse application contexts, the methodology is assisted by model integration technologies that allow assembly of customized models from a growing model base. By using computer learning and reasoning, model structure may be specialized for each application context without requiring costly expertise. In this article we discuss the founding principles of ARIES - both its innovative aspects for ES science and as an example of a new strategy to support more accurate decision making in diverse application contexts

Development of forest structure and leaf area in secondary forests regenerating on abandoned pastures in Central Amazonia

The area of secondary forest (SF) regenerating from pastures is increasing in the Amazon basin; however, the return of forest and canopy structure following abandonment is not well understood. This study examined the development of leaf area index (LAI), canopy cover, aboveground biomass, stem density, diameter at breast height (DBH), and basal area ( BA) by growth form and diameter class for 10 SFs regenerating from abandoned pastures. Biomass accrual was tree dominated, constituting >= 94% of the total measured biomass in all forests abandoned >= 4 to 6 yr. Vine biomass increased with forest age, but its relative contribution to total biomass decreased with time. The forests were dominated by the tree Vismia spp. (> 50%). Tree stem density peaked after 6 to 8 yr ( 10 320 stems per hectare) before declining by 42% in the 12- to 14-yr-old SFs. Small-diameter tree stems in the 1-5-cm size class composed > 58% of the total stems for all forests. After 12 to 14 yr, there was no significant leaf area below 150-cm height. Leaf area return (LAI = 3.2 after 12 to 14 yr) relative to biomass was slower than literature-reported recovery following slash-and-burn, where LAI can reach primary forest levels ( LAI = 4 - 6) in 5 yr. After 12 to 14 yr, the colonizing vegetation returned some components of forest structure to values reported for primary forest. Basal area and LAI were 50% - 60%, canopy cover and stem density were nearly 100%, and the rapid tree-dominated biomass accrual was 25% - 50% of values reported for primary forest. Biomass accumulation may reach an asymptote earlier than expected because of even-aged, monospecific, untiered stand structure. The very slow leaf area accumulation relative to biomass and to reported values for recovery following slash-and-burn indicates a different canopy development pathway that warrants further investigation of causes ( e. g., nutrient limitations, competition) and effects on processes such as evapotranspiration and soil water uptake, which would influence long-term recovery rates and have regional implications

Food security in a perfect storm:Using the ecosystem services framework to increase understanding

Achieving food security in a ‘perfect storm’ scenario is a grand challenge for society. Climate change and an expanding global population act in concert to make global food security even more complex and demanding. As achieving food security and the millennium development goal (MDG) to eradicate hunger influences the attainment of other MDGs, it is imperative that we offer solutions which are complementary and do not oppose one another. Sustainable intensification of agriculture has been proposed as a way to address hunger while also minimizing further environmental impact. However, the desire to raise productivity and yields has historically led to a degraded environment, reduced biodiversity and a reduction in ecosystem services (ES), with the greatest impacts affecting the poor. This paper proposes that the ES framework coupled with a policy response framework, for example Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR), can allow food security to be delivered alongside healthy ecosystems, which provide many other valuable services to humankind. Too often, agro-ecosystems have been considered as separate from other natural ecosystems and insufficient attention has been paid to the way in which services can flow to and from the agro-ecosystem to surrounding ecosystems. Highlighting recent research in a large multi-disciplinary project (ASSETS), we illustrate the ES approach to food security using a case study from the Zomba district of Malawi

Viable Reserve Networks Arise From Individual Landholder Responses To Conservation Incentives

Abstract Conservation in densely-settled biodiversity hotspots areas often requires setting up reserve networks that maintain sufficient contiguous habitat to support viable species populations. Because it is difficult to secure landholder compliance with an tightly constrained reserve network design, attention has shifted to voluntary incentive mechanisms, such as purchase of conservation easements by reverse auction or through a fixed-price offer. These mechanisms carry potential advantages of transparency, simplicity, and low cost. But uncoordinated individual response to these incentives has been assumed to be incompatible with conservation goals of viability (which depends on contiguous habitat) and biodiversity representation. We model such incentives for southern Bahia in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the biologically richest and most threatened global biodiversity hotspots. Here, forest cover is spatially autocorrelated and associated with depressed land values, a situation that may be characteristic of longsettled areas with forests fragmented by agriculture. We find that in this situation, a voluntary incentive system can yield a reserve network characterized by large, viable patches of contiguous forest, and representation of subregions with distinct vegetation types and biotic assemblages -without explicit planning for those outcomes

Solar radiation and vertical leaf area distribution in forest - Reserva Biológica do Cueiras ZF02, Manaus

In this work, the vertical leaf area distribution is investigated in connection with radiation regime, using the measurements of solar radiation made om July to November 2001 at the experimental site of Reserva Biológica do Cuieiras, Manaus, ZF2 km 14 and km 34, in Central Amazonia. A sampling technique is used for the radiation measurements inside two tall canopy covers, having a mobile support apparatus, made up of modular ame, which allows placement of the radiation sensors at different heights along a vertical line within the canopy. Inversion of the solar radiation physical model allowed a determination of the leaf area density. Spatial variability of leaf area (LAI, function a(z)) is established for the two experimental sites om the measurements of solar radiation in three verticals on each site. The average values of leaf area index (LAI) for the local vegetation at km 14 and at km 34 ZF2 were 6,4 and 6,1, respectively. A comparative analysis is developed concerning the vertical distributions of leaf area obtained for different experimental sites in Amazonia, using the same solar radiation measurement system.Neste estudo, a distribuição vertical de área foliar em floresta é investigada em conexão com o regime de radiação, usando as medidas de radiação solar realizadas no período de julho a novembro de 2001, na Reserva Biológica do Cuieiras - Manaus ZF2, km 14 e km 34, na Amazônia Central. Técnicas experimentais de amostragem de radiação no interior de coberturas vegetais de grande porte são utilizadas, com dispositivos de suporte móveis constituídos por reticulados modulares, que permitem a disposição dos sensores de radiação em diferentes níveis de uma mesma vertical no interior da cobertura. Inversão de modelos radiativos em coberturas vegetais densas permite as análises sobre a distribuição vertical de área foliar. A variabilidade espacial de área foliar (IAF, função a(z)) é estabelecida para os dois sítios experimentais a partir de medidas de radiação solar, individualizadas em três verticais em cada um desses locais. O índice de área foliar total médio (IAF) da vegetação local para o sítio experimental do km 14 alcançou o valor de 6,4 e para o sítio experimental do km 34 o valor de 6,1. Uma análise comparativa é desenvolvida sobre distribuições verticais de área foliar obtidas em sítios experimentais da Amazônia, usando o mesmo sistema de medidas de radiação solar