Latent entrepreneurship across nations

The paper studies latent entrepreneurship across nations. There are three main findings. First, large numbers of people in the industrial countries say they would prefer to be self-employed. Top of the international ranking of entrepreneurial spirit come Poland (with 80% saying so), Portugal and the USA; bottom of the table come Norway (with 27% saying so), Denmark and Russia. Second, for individuals the probability of preferring to be self-employed is strongly decreasing with age, while the probability of being self-employed is strongly increasing with age. Third, we show that self-employed individuals have noticeably higher job satisfaction than the employed, so people's expressed wish to run their business cannot easily be written off as mistaken. We speculate on why so much entrepreneurial spirit lies dormant

Latent entrepreneurship across nations

The paper studies latent entrepreneurship across nations. There are three main findings. First, large numbers of people in the industrial countries say they would prefer to be self-employed. Top of the international ranking of entrepreneurial spirit come Poland (with 80% saying so), Portugal and the USA; bottom of the table come Norway (with 27% saying so), Denmark and Russia. Second, for individuals the probability of preferring to be self-employed is strongly decreasing with age, while the probability of being self-employed is strongly increasing with age. Third, we show that self-employed individuals have noticeably higher job satisfaction than the employed, so people's expressed wish to run their business cannot easily be written off as mistaken. We speculate on why so much entrepreneurial spirit lies dormant

On the surprising effectiveness of a simple matrix exponential derivative approximation, with application to global SARS-CoV-2

The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is the mathematical workhorse of evolutionary biology. Learning CTMC model parameters using modern, gradient-based methods requires the derivative of the matrix exponential evaluated at the CTMC's infinitesimal generator (rate) matrix. Motivated by the derivative's extreme computational complexity as a function of state space cardinality, recent work demonstrates the surprising effectiveness of a naive, first-order approximation for a host of problems in computational biology. In response to this empirical success, we obtain rigorous deterministic and probabilistic bounds for the error accrued by the naive approximation and establish a "blessing of dimensionality" result that is universal for a large class of rate matrices with random entries. Finally, we apply the first-order approximation within surrogate-trajectory Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for the analysis of the early spread of SARS-CoV-2 across 44 geographic regions that comprise a state space of unprecedented dimensionality for unstructured (flexible) CTMC models within evolutionary biology

Auntie knows best? public broadcasters and current affairs knowledge

Public service broadcasters (PSBs) are a central part of national news media landscapes. In many countries, PSBs are the first choice of citizens when it comes to news providers. And in perhaps more countries still, PSBs are thought of as specialists in provision of hard news. We test this proposition here using survey data from a large crossnational survey involving indicators of current affairs knowledge and media consumption. Specifically, we examine whether exposure to public versus commercial news influences the knowledge citizens possess about current affairs, both domestically and internationally. We also test, using propensity score analysis, whether there is variation across PSBs in this regard. Results indicate that compared to commercial news, watching PSB has a net positive influence on knowledge of hard news, though not all PSBs are equally effective in contributing to knowledge acquisition. This knowledge gap between PSB and commercial news media consumption appears to be mitigated by factors such as de jure independence,proportion of public financing, and audience share

Money and mental wellbeing : a longitudinal study of medium-sized lottery wins

One of the famous questions in social science is whether money makes people happy. We offer new evidence by using longitudinal data on a random sample of Britons who receive medium-sized lottery wins of between £1000 and £120,000 (that is, up to approximately US$ 200,000). When compared to two control groups – one with no wins and the other with small wins – these individuals go on eventually to exhibit significantly better psychological health. Two years after a lottery win, the average measured improvement in mental wellbeing is 1.4 GHQ points

Six-Month Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Presenting for Antiretroviral Therapy with Unexplained Weight Loss, Chronic Fever or Chronic Diarrhea in Malawi.

In sub-Saharan Africa, early mortality is high following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We investigated 6-month outcomes and factors associated with mortality in HIV-infected adults being assessed for ART initiation and presenting with weight loss, chronic fever or diarrhea, and with negative TB sputum microscopy

Enhanced Identification of Postoperative Infections among Outpatients

Claims data complement other data sources for identification of surgical site infections following breast surgery and cesarean section

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Cosmology from Galaxy Clusters Detected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect

We present constraints on cosmological parameters based on a sample of Sunyaev-Zel'dovich-selected galaxy clusters detected in a millimeter-wave survey by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope. The cluster sample used in this analysis consists of 9 optically-confirmed high-mass clusters comprising the high-significance end of the total cluster sample identified in 455 square degrees of sky surveyed during 2008 at 148 GHz. We focus on the most massive systems to reduce the degeneracy between unknown cluster astrophysics and cosmology derived from SZ surveys. We describe the scaling relation between cluster mass and SZ signal with a 4-parameter fit. Marginalizing over the values of the parameters in this fit with conservative priors gives sigma_8 = 0.851 +/- 0.115 and w = -1.14 +/- 0.35 for a spatially-flat wCDM cosmological model with WMAP 7-year priors on cosmological parameters. This gives a modest improvement in statistical uncertainty over WMAP 7-year constraints alone. Fixing the scaling relation between cluster mass and SZ signal to a fiducial relation obtained from numerical simulations and calibrated by X-ray observations, we find sigma_8 = 0.821 +/- 0.044 and w = -1.05 +/- 0.20. These results are consistent with constraints from WMAP 7 plus baryon acoustic oscillations plus type Ia supernoava which give sigma_8 = 0.802 +/- 0.038 and w = -0.98 +/- 0.053. A stacking analysis of the clusters in this sample compared to clusters simulated assuming the fiducial model also shows good agreement. These results suggest that, given the sample of clusters used here, both the astrophysics of massive clusters and the cosmological parameters derived from them are broadly consistent with current models.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to Ap