Coastal road asset management: Dealing with uncertainty using quantitative erosion monitoring and modelling

The A183 is an essential transportation link in the northeast UK that joins coastal areas from South Shields to Sunderland. The route runs through the hinterland of Marsden Bay and concerns have been raised about the proximity of the road to the eroding cliff line. The Shoreline Management Plan (Lane and Guthrie, 2007) sets out the overarching management policy in the area and, based on the analyses of historic map data, uses projected coastal cliff retreat rates of 0.1 – 0.2 m a-1, although more recent investigations have suggested the rates may be nearer 0.04 – 0.1 m a-1. Quantitative data on the true rates and nature of cliff erosion are scarce and asset management decisions typically use the higher rate of 0.2 m a-1 when considering the potential impact on road operations and lifespan in order to account for uncertainty and future sea-level rise; which is additionally used to accelerate the predicted rates of retreat. Consequently, an enhanced high order estimate of cliff erosion rates has restricted the serviceability of the A183 to within 20 – 50 years, and there are three areas (pinch points) of particular concern where the close proximity of the cliff line threatens the safe operation of the road. This approach and the data it uses suggest that significant and potentially costly decisions may soon be required to ensure the viability of this vital transport corridor. Set against the context of assumed high cliff erosion rates, and further predicted increases to this metric, this work presents the results of a re-evaluation of existing map and aerial imagery data that highlights the typically high uncertainty associated with historic map data. The errors often exceed the changes being detected in rock cliffs, producing contradictory results and variability in processing and interpretation that restricts the reliability of the data used in current policy decisions. Using a significance-based analysis, questions are raised about how appropriate it is to reduce a three-dimensional recession process down to a single linear retreat. To provide a more appropriate and accurate assessment of the erosion occurring here we present the results of a monitoring approach of the Marsden Bay site using three-dimensional survey analyses to improve understanding of cliff failures at the site and ultimately to aid policy decisions

Decoding Complex Erosion Responses for the Mitigation of Coastal Rockfall Hazards Using Repeat Terrestrial LiDAR

A key factor limiting our understanding of rock slope behavior and associated geohazards is the interaction between internal and external system controls on the nature, rates, and timing of rockfall activity. We use high-resolution, monthly terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys over a 2 year monitoring period to quantify rockfall patterns across a 0.6 km-long (15.3 × 103 m2) section of a limestone rock cliff on the northeast coast of England, where uncertainty in rates of change threaten the effective planning and operational management of a key coastal cliff top road. Internal system controls, such as cliff material characteristics and foreshore geometry, dictate rockfall characteristics and background patterns of activity and demonstrate that layer-specific analyses of rockfall inventories and sequencing patterns are essential to better understand the timing and nature of rockfall risks. The influence of external environmental controls, notably storm activity, is also evaluated, and increased storminess corresponds to detectable rises in both total and mean rockfall volume and the volumetric contribution of large (>10 m3) rockfalls at the cliff top during these periods. Transient convergence of the cumulative magnitude–frequency power law scaling exponent (ɑ) during high magnitude events signals a uniform erosion response across the wider cliff system that applies to all lithologies. The tracking of rockfall distribution metrics from repeat terrestrial LiDAR in this way demonstrably improves the ability to identify, monitor, and forecast short-term variations in rockfall hazards, and, as such, provides a powerful new approach for mitigating the threats and impacts of coastal erosion

The Hubble series: Convergence properties and redshift variables

In cosmography, cosmokinetics, and cosmology it is quite common to encounter physical quantities expanded as a Taylor series in the cosmological redshift z. Perhaps the most well-known exemplar of this phenomenon is the Hubble relation between distance and redshift. However, we now have considerable high-z data available, for instance we have supernova data at least back to redshift z=1.75. This opens up the theoretical question as to whether or not the Hubble series (or more generally any series expansion based on the z-redshift) actually converges for large redshift? Based on a combination of mathematical and physical reasoning, we argue that the radius of convergence of any series expansion in z is less than or equal to 1, and that z-based expansions must break down for z>1, corresponding to a universe less than half its current size. Furthermore, we shall argue on theoretical grounds for the utility of an improved parameterization y=z/(1+z). In terms of the y-redshift we again argue that the radius of convergence of any series expansion in y is less than or equal to 1, so that y-based expansions are likely to be good all the way back to the big bang y=1, but that y-based expansions must break down for y<-1, now corresponding to a universe more than twice its current size.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravit

The (un)resolved X-ray background in the Lockman Hole

Most of the soft and a growing fraction of the harder X-ray background has been resolved into emission from point sources, yet the resolved fraction above 7 keV has only been poorly constrained. We use ~700 ks of XMM-Newton observations of the Lockman Hole and a photometric approach to estimate the total flux attributable to resolved sources in a number of different energy bands. We find the resolved fraction of the X-ray background to be ~90 per cent below 2 keV but it decreases rapidly at higher energies with the resolved fraction above ~7 keV being only ~50 per cent. The integrated X-ray spectrum from detected sources has a slope of Gamma~1.75, much softer than the Gamma=1.4 of the total background spectrum. The unresolved background component has the spectral signature of highly obscured AGN.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, MNRAS Letters, in press, changed to reflect accepted versio

The AGN contribution to mid-infrared surveys

We provide constraints on the AGN contribution to the mid-IR extragalactic background light from a correlation analysis of deep X-ray and mid-IR observations in two regions centred on the Lockman Hole (LH) and Hubble Deep Field North (HDFN). Among the 76 galaxies detected by XMM in the LH area (200 square arcminutes), 24 show mid-IR emission, but the relative percentage of X-ray sources with mid-IR counterparts increases with the band energy: from 30% of the 0.5-2 keV sources up to 63% of the 5-10 keV sources. In contrast, only a small fraction of the mid-IR sources (around 10%) show X-ray emission. In the region centred on the HDFN (24 square arcminutes), 25% of the mid-IR sources are detected in the X-ray, while 30-40% of the X-ray sources show mid-IR emission. Under the conservative assumption that all XMM sources are AGN-dominated, AGNs contribute 15% of the total mid-IR flux in the LH. For the HDFN we have assumed that AGN-dominated sources are luminous X-ray sources with radio to X-ray SEDs typical of local AGNs, in which case we find that 18% of the mid-IR flux are due to AGN emission. If we put together all the existing information from the deepest HDFN data to the shallow large-area BeppoSAX observations in the ELAIS S1 region using the median mid-IR to X-ray spectral indices as a function of the X-ray flux, we find an AGN contribution to the 15um background of 17%. We conclude that the population of IR luminous galaxies detected in the ISOCAM deep surveys are mainly constituted by dust-obscured starbursts.Comment: 16 pages, 13 postscript + 3 jpg figures, A&A submitte

Bounding the Hubble flow in terms of the w parameter

The last decade has seen increasing efforts to circumscribe and bound the cosmological Hubble flow in terms of model-independent constraints on the cosmological fluid - such as, for instance, the classical energy conditions of general relativity. Quite a bit can certainly be said in this regard, but much more refined bounds can be obtained by placing more precise constraints (either theoretical or observational) on the cosmological fluid. In particular, the use of the w-parameter (w=p/rho) has become increasingly common as a surrogate for trying to say something about the cosmological equation of state. Herein we explore the extent to which a constraint on the w-parameter leads to useful and nontrivial constraints on the Hubble flow, in terms of constraints on density rho(z), Hubble parameter H(z), density parameter Omega(z), cosmological distances d(z), and lookback time T(z). In contrast to other partial results in the literature, we carry out the computations for arbitrary values of the space curvature k in [-1,0,+1], equivalently for arbitrary Omega_0 <= 1.Comment: 15 page

Adherence to cancer screening guidelines in Australian survivors of allogeneic blood and marrow transplantation (BMT)

Allogeneic Blood and Marrow Transplant (BMT) survivors are at high risk of secondary cancers. Although current guidelines endorse survivors following Country-specific general population screening recommendations to mitigate this risk, little is known about cancer screening adherence in Australian BMT survivors. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 441 BMT survivors who were >1 year post transplant, to explore rates of screening for secondary cancers and to identify barriers to cancer screening recommendations. Survey instruments included the Sydney Post-BMT Survey, FACT-BMT, DASS 21, The Chronic Graft versus Host Disease (GVHD) Activity Assessment–Patient Self-Report (Form B), the Lee Chronic GVHD Symptom Scale, Fear of Cancer Recurrence Scale, and The Post Traumatic Growth Inventory. Fifty-seven percent of respondents were male, median age 54 years, and 40% were >6 years post-BMT. Rates of cancer screening adherence were as follows: cervical 63.4%, breast 53.3%, skin 52.4%, and bowel 32.3%. Older BMT survivors and those >2 years post transplant were more likely to undergo cancer screening. Improved quality of life was associated with screening for skin, breast, and cervical cancer. Fear of cancer recurrence negatively impacted on cervical screening. For those who had not undergone screening, the majority reported not being advised to do so by their treatment team. This study is the largest and most comprehensive to date exploring cancer screening adherence in BMT survivors in Australia. These data provide the basis for health service reform to better meet the needs of BMT survivors and provide evidence to support counseling and education of both patients and professionals. Keywords: Australia, blood and marrow transplant (BMT), cancer screening, late effects, secondary cancers, survivorsfunded by the New South Wales Agency for Clinical Innovation, Blood and Marrow Transplant Network and supported by the Northern Blood Research Centr

Adherence to cancer screening guidelines in Australian survivors of allogeneic blood and marrow transplantation (BMT)

Allogeneic Blood and Marrow Transplant (BMT) survivors are at high risk of secondary cancers. Although current guidelines endorse survivors following Country-specific general population screening recommendations to mitigate this risk, little is known about cancer screening adherence in Australian BMT survivors. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 441 BMT survivors who were >1 year post transplant, to explore rates of screening for secondary cancers and to identify barriers to cancer screening recommendations. Survey instruments included the Sydney Post-BMT Survey, FACT-BMT, DASS 21, The Chronic Graft versus Host Disease (GVHD) Activity Assessment–Patient Self-Report (Form B), the Lee Chronic GVHD Symptom Scale, Fear of Cancer Recurrence Scale, and The Post Traumatic Growth Inventory. Fifty-seven percent of respondents were male, median age 54 years, and 40% were >6 years post-BMT. Rates of cancer screening adherence were as follows: cervical 63.4%, breast 53.3%, skin 52.4%, and bowel 32.3%. Older BMT survivors and those >2 years post transplant were more likely to undergo cancer screening. Improved quality of life was associated with screening for skin, breast, and cervical cancer. Fear of cancer recurrence negatively impacted on cervical screening. For those who had not undergone screening, the majority reported not being advised to do so by their treatment team. This study is the largest and most comprehensive to date exploring cancer screening adherence in BMT survivors in Australia. These data provide the basis for health service reform to better meet the needs of BMT survivors and provide evidence to support counseling and education of both patients and professionals. Keywords: Australia, blood and marrow transplant (BMT), cancer screening, late effects, secondary cancers, survivorsfunded by the New South Wales Agency for Clinical Innovation, Blood and Marrow Transplant Network and supported by the Northern Blood Research Centr

Evolution of star formation in the UKIDSS ultra deep survey field-I. Luminosity functions and cosmic star formation rate out to z = 1.6

We present new results on the cosmic star formation history in the Subaru/XMM-Newton Deep Survey (SXDS)-Ultra Deep Survey (UDS) field out to z = 1.6. We compile narrowband data from the Subaru Telescope and the Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope forAstronomy (VISTA) in conjunction with broad-band data from the SXDS and UDS, to makea selection of 5725 emission-line galaxies in 12 redshift slices, spanning 10 Gyr of cosmictime. We determine photometric redshifts for the sample using 11-band photometry, and usea spectroscopically confirmed subset to fine tune the resultant redshift distribution. We usethe maximum-likelihood technique to determine luminosity functions in each redshift slice and model the selection effects inherent in any narrow-band selection statistically, to obviatethe retrospective corrections ordinarily required. The deep narrow-band data are sensitive tovery low star formation rates (SFRs), and allow an accurate evaluation of the faint end slopeof the Schechter function, α We find that a is particularly sensitive to the assumed faintest broad-band magnitude of a galaxy capable of hosting an emission line, and propose thatthis limit should be empirically motivated. For this analysis, we base our threshold on thelimiting observed equivalent widths of emission lines in the local Universe. We compute thecharacteristic SFR of galaxies in each redshift slice, and the integrated SFR density,ρ SFR. Wefind our results to be in good agreement with the literature and parametrize the evolution of the SFR density as ρ SFR α(1 + z)4.58 confirming a steep decline in star formation activity since z ~ 1.6.Peer reviewe