Education Choice under Uncertainty - Implications for Public Policy

We analyse how progressive taxation and education subsidies affect schooling decisions when the returns to education are stochastic. We use the theory of real options to solve the problem of education choice in a dynamic stochastic model. We show that education attainment will be an increasing function of the risk associated with education. Furthermore, this result holds regardless of the degree of risk aversion. We also show that progressive taxes will tend to increase education attainment.Education Choice; Dynamic Optimization, Optimal Stopping, Uncertainty

Education Choice under Uncertainty and Public Policy

We analyse how progressive taxation and education subsidies affect schooling deci- sions when the returns to education are stochastic. We use the theory of real options to solve the problem of education choice in a dynamic, life-cycle consistent, stochastic model. We show that education attainment will be an increasing function of the risk associated with education. Furthermore, this result holds whether or not agents can borrow in order to pay for education and regardless of the degree of risk aversion. We also examine the link between consumption over the life-cycle and education choice to show that higher initial wealth will usually - but not always - have a positive effect on education attainment. Finally we show that progressive taxes will tend to reduce education attainment for the poor but increase it for the rich.Education Choice; Dynamic Optimization, Optimal Stopping, Uncertainty

Education Choice under Uncertainty

We apply the theory of real options to the problem of education choice when returns to education are uncertain. We show that the length of time spent in school will be an increasing function of the risk associated with education and not just the expected return. This fact has been neglected in much of the empirical literature on education.

The Secrets of Massachusetts' Success: Why 97 Percent of State Residents Have Health Coverage

Analyzes the policies that helped expand coverage, including a data-driven eligibility system serving multiple programs, online applications via providers and community groups, and intensive public education. Considers national and state implications

Dispersion in the Economic Return to Schooling

In this paper we extend the standard human capital earnings function to include dispersion in the rate of return to schooling by treating the return as a random coefficient. One motivation is that if the increase in supply of skilled workers has been brought about by dipping further into the ability distribution. Alternatively if the expansion in post-compulsory education comes about through relaxed credit constraints then we might expect this to increase average ability in the pool of educated workers. Either event might lead to a rise in the variance in returns. Based on a sample of data from the United Kingdom our estimates suggest that neither the mean nor the dispersion in returns to schooling has altered significantly over time. This is consistent with educational expansion not leading to a disproportionate inflow of low ability individuals into the system.

Modelling Dual-carriageway Traffic Behaviour as a Complex System: a Proposal for Discussion

This paper outlines the initial developmental stage of a microscopic traffic system model incorporating driver behaviour. The model uses exponential and Gaussian distributions to assign each car its starting time headway and velocity characteristics respectively as expected in real-world traffic [see 1,2]. Each car may be in one of three distinct regimes (time headway windows), depending upon how close in time the car is to the car in front of it

Design of a Debridement Device Using Impinging Jets

Chronic wound care is a significant burden on the healthcare system, affecting an estimated three to six million Americans, manifesting as ulcers associated with restricted blood flow, diabetes mellitus, or pressure. Treatment is frequently unsuccessful, with only an estimated 25–50% of venous and diabetic ulcers closing after 20 weeks of treatment. Debridement, the removal of necrotic tissue and foreign materials from the wounds, is a crucial component in the chronic wound care. While there exist many debridement techniques, the search for new and more effective methods is ongoing. The existing methods of debridement include surgical, the industry gold standard, as well as the mechanical, autolytic, enzymatic, and hydrosurgery (VersaJet™). The VersaJet™ uses a single high-speed jet directed parallel to the wound surface to remove soft necrotic tissue. This paper presents the design of a debridement device that uses two narrow, high-speed impinging fluid jets to excise necrotic tissue. The handheld device can be used to remove strips of necrotic tissue of a predetermined width and depth and was tested on samples of simulated slough, the soft necrotic tissue, and eschar, the hard, scablike necrotic tissue. The preliminary tests indicate that the technique removes necrotic tissue quickly and with good control, suggesting that, with further development, the technique may provide a time-saving alternative to surgical debridement. Further testing, however, is required to ensure that the jets do not damage the surrounding healthy tissues and to quantitatively analyze the effectiveness of the technique relative to other debridement strategies

Comparison of rapid laboratory tests for failure of passive transfer in the bovine

peer-reviewedBackground Failure of passive transfer of maternal immunity via colostrum can occur in the bovine, and a number of blood tests have been developed to test calves for this failure. It is not clear which test is most suitable for this purpose. The objective was to examine the most commonly used tests for failure of passive transfer and to decide which is most suitable for routine laboratory use. 126 serum samples were taken from calves of dairy cows after birth but prior to colostrum feeding, and at 48 h of age. Five different tests were compared against radial immunodiffusion which is considered the appropriate reference method. These tests were serum gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, serum protein levels, serum globulin levels, an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and the zinc sulphate turbidity test. Results The tests examined displayed high sensitivity but widely varying specificity. Examination of the use of different cut-off points allowed some improvement in specificity at the expense of sensitivity, but the tests which had performed best at the original cut-off points still displayed the best performance. Gamma-glutamyltransferase levels as a measure of colostrum absorption returned, in this study, the best balance between sensitivity and specificity. The ELISA used in this study and serum globulin levels displayed performance similar to the gamma-glutamyltransferase levels. Serum total protein was less successful than others examined at providing both sensitivity and specificity but may, when performed via refractometer, be useful for on-farm testing. As currently performed the poor sensitivity for which the zinc sulphate turbidity test is most often criticized is evident. Modification of the cut-off point to increase specificity is less successful at balancing these parameters than the ELISA, gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, and globulin levels. Conclusions Gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, ELISA testing and circulating globulin levels performed best in detecting failure of passive transfer in serum samples, although all three had some practical considerations

Disentangling within-person changes and individual differences among fundamental need satisfaction, attainment of acquisitive desires, and psychological health

We explored within-person and individual difference associations among basic psychological need satisfaction (autonomy, competence, and relatedness), attainment of acquisitive desires (wealth and popularity) and indicators of well- and ill-being. Participants were 198 undergraduates (51% male) who completed an inventory multiple times over a university semester. Analyses revealed that increased satisfaction of all the needs and desires beyond participants’ normal levels, with the exception of relatedness, were associated with greater psychological welfare. Nonetheless, individual differences in well-being were only predicted by psychological need satisfaction, and not by the attainment of acquisitive desires. Hence, the realization of acquisitive desires may elicit within-person increases in psychological welfare; however, satisfying innate needs may be a better bet for long term psychological health

Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures