Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019.

BackgroundAs of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.MethodsFor short- and long-term projections, we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission rates estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used two regression models to estimate similar projection periods. Short- and long-term projections were estimated using negative binomial autoregression and Theil-Sen regression, respectively. We also used Gott's rule to estimate a baseline minimum-information projection. We then constructed an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20, 2018 to February 25, 2019, short-term model projections were validated against known case counts.ResultsDuring validation of short-term projections, from one week to four weeks, we found models consistently scored higher on shorter-term forecasts. Based on case counts as of February 25, the stochastic model projected a median case count of 933 cases by February 18 (95% prediction interval: 872-1054) and 955 cases by March 4 (95% prediction interval: 874-1105), while the auto-regression model projects median case counts of 889 (95% prediction interval: 876-933) and 898 (95% prediction interval: 877-983) cases for those dates, respectively. Projected median final counts range from 953 to 1,749. Although the outbreak is already larger than all past Ebola outbreaks other than the 2013-2016 outbreak of over 26,000 cases, our models do not project that it is likely to grow to that scale. The stochastic model estimates that vaccination coverage in this outbreak is lower than reported in its trial setting in Sierra Leone.ConclusionsOur projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges

Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration

Safety and immunogenicity of H1/IC31®, an adjuvanted TB subunit vaccine, in HIV-infected adults with CD4+ lymphocyte counts greater than 350 cells/mm3: a phase II, multi-centre, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Novel tuberculosis vaccines should be safe, immunogenic, and effective in various population groups, including HIV-infected individuals. In this phase II multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, the safety and immunogenicity of the novel H1/IC31 vaccine, a fusion protein of Ag85B-ESAT-6 (H1) formulated with the adjuvant IC31, was evaluated in HIV-infected adults. METHODS: HIV-infected adults with CD4+ T cell counts >350/mm3 and without evidence of active tuberculosis were enrolled and followed until day 182. H1/IC31 vaccine or placebo was randomly allocated in a 5:1 ratio. The vaccine was administered intramuscularly at day 0 and 56. Safety assessment was based on medical history, clinical examinations, and blood and urine testing. Immunogenicity was determined by a short-term whole blood intracellular cytokine staining assay. RESULTS: 47 of the 48 randomised participants completed both vaccinations. In total, 459 mild or moderate and 2 severe adverse events were reported. There were three serious adverse events in two vaccinees classified as not related to the investigational product. Local injection site reactions were more common in H1/IC31 versus placebo recipients (65.0% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.015). Solicited systemic and unsolicited adverse events were similar by study arm. The baseline CD4+ T cell count and HIV viral load were similar by study arm and remained constant over time. The H1/IC31 vaccine induced a persistent Th1-immune response with predominately TNF-α and IL-2 co-expressing CD4+ T cells, as well as polyfunctional IFN-γ, TNF-α and IL-2 expressing CD4+ T cells. CONCLUSION: H1/IC31 was well tolerated and safe in HIV-infected adults with a CD4+ Lymphocyte count greater than 350 cells/mm3. The vaccine did not have an effect on CD4+ T cell count or HIV-1 viral load. H1/IC31 induced a specific and durable Th1 immune response. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR) PACTR201105000289276

Treatment of streptococcal pharyngitis with once-daily amoxicillin versus intramuscular benzathine penicillin g in low-resource settings : A randomized controlled trial

Background: Primary prevention of acute rheumatic fever is achieved by proper antibiotic treatment of group A β -hemolytic streptococcal (GAS) pharyngitis. Methods: To assess noninferiority of oral amoxicillin to intramuscular benzathine penicillin G (IM BPG). Children (2 to 12 years) meeting enrollment criteria were randomized 1:1 to receive antibiotic treatment in 2 urban outpatient clinics in Egypt and Croatia. Results: A total of 558 children (Croatia = 166, Egypt = 392) were randomized, with 368 evaluable in an intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis, and 272 evaluable in the per protocol (PP) analysis. In Croatia, ITT and PP treatment success rates were comparable for IM BPG and amoxicillin (2.5% difference vs 1.1% difference, respectively). In Egypt, amoxicillin was not comparable with IM BPG in ITT analysis (15.1% difference), but was comparable in PP analysis (-9.3% difference). Conclusion: If compliance is a major issue, a single dose of IM BPG may be preferable for treatment of GAS pharyngitis.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Cell type-specific over-expression of chromosome 21 genes in fibroblasts and fetal hearts with trisomy 21

BACKGROUND: Down syndrome (DS) is caused by trisomy 21 (+21), but the aberrations in gene expression resulting from this chromosomal aneuploidy are not yet completely understood. METHODS: We used oligonucleotide microarrays to survey mRNA expression in early- and late-passage control and +21 fibroblasts and mid-gestation fetal hearts. We supplemented this analysis with northern blotting, western blotting, real-time RT-PCR, and immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: We found chromosome 21 genes consistently over-represented among the genes over-expressed in the +21 samples. However, these sets of over-expressed genes differed across the three cell/tissue types. The chromosome 21 gene MX1 was strongly over-expressed (mean 16-fold) in senescent +21 fibroblasts, a result verified by northern and western blotting. MX1 is an interferon target gene, and its mRNA was induced by interferons present in +21 fibroblast conditioned medium, suggesting an autocrine loop for its over-expression. By immunohistochemistry the p78(MX1 )protein was induced in lesional tissue of alopecia areata, an autoimmune disorder associated with DS. We found strong over-expression of the purine biosynthesis gene GART (mean 3-fold) in fetal hearts with +21 and verified this result by northern blotting and real-time RT-PCR. CONCLUSION: Different subsets of chromosome 21 genes are over-expressed in different cell types with +21, and for some genes this over-expression is non-linear (>1.5X). Hyperactive interferon signaling is a candidate pathway for cell senescence and autoimmune disorders in DS, and abnormal purine metabolism should be investigated for a potential role in cardiac defects

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies

NC Harvey acknowledges funding from the UK Medical Research Council (MC_PC_21003; MC_PC_21001). The WHI program is funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through 75N92021D00001, 75N92021D00002, 75N92021D00003, 75N92021D00004, and 75N92021D00005. Funding for the MrOS USA study comes from the National Institute on Aging (NIA), the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS), the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), and NIH Roadmap for Medical Research under the following grant numbers: U01 AG027810, U01 AG042124, U01 AG042139, U01 AG042140, U01 AG042143, U01 AG042145, U01 AG042168, U01 AR066160, and UL1 TR000128. Funding for the SOF study comes from the National Institute on Aging (NIA), and the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS), supported by grants (AG05407, AR35582, AG05394, AR35584, and AR35583). Funding for the Health ABC study was from the Intramural research program at the National Institute on Aging under the following contract numbers: NO1-AG-6–2101, NO1-AG-6–2103, and NO1-AG-6–2106.Peer reviewedPostprin

Ebola Virus Neutralizing Antibodies Detectable in Survivors of theYambuku, Zaire Outbreak 40 Years after Infection.

The first reported outbreak of Ebola virus disease occurred in 1976 in Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo. Antibody responses in survivors 11 years after infection have been documented. However, this report is the first characterization of anti-Ebola virus antibody persistence and neutralization capacity 40 years after infection. Using ELISAs we measured survivor's immunological response to Ebola virus Zaire (EBOV) glycoprotein and nucleoprotein, and assessed VP40 reactivity. Neutralization of EBOV was measured using a pseudovirus approach and plaque reduction neutralization test with live EBOV. Some survivors from the original EBOV outbreak still harbor antibodies against all 3 measures. Interestingly, a subset of these survivors' serum antibodies could still neutralize live virus 40 years postinitial infection. These data provide the longest documentation of both anti-Ebola serological response and neutralization capacity within any survivor cohort, extending the known duration of response from 11 years postinfection to at least 40 years after symptomatic infection