Predictors of measles vaccination coverage among children 6-59 months of age in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BackgroundMeasles is a significant contributor to child mortality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), despite routine immunization programs and supplementary immunization activities (SIA). Further, national immunization coverage levels may hide disparities among certain groups of children, making effective measles control even more challenging. This study describes measles vaccination coverage and reporting methods and identifies predictors of vaccination among children participating in the 2013-2014 DRC Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).MethodsWe examined vaccination coverage of 6947 children aged 6-59 months. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of vaccination among children reporting vaccination via dated card in order to identify least reached children. We also assessed spatial distribution of vaccination report type by rural versus urban residence.ResultsUrban children with educated mothers were more likely to be vaccinated (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 1.6, 10.7) versus children of mothers with no education, as were children in wealthier rural families (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9, 4.4). At the provincial level, urban areas more frequently reported vaccination via dated card than rural areas.ConclusionsResults indicate that, while the overall coverage level of 70% is too low, socioeconomic and geographic disparities also exist which could make some children even less likely to be vaccinated. Dated records of measles vaccination must be increased, and groups of children with the greatest need should be targeted. As access to routine vaccination services is limited in DRC, identifying and targeting under-reached children should be a strategic means of increasing country-wide effective measles control

Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019.

BackgroundAs of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.MethodsFor short- and long-term projections, we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission rates estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used two regression models to estimate similar projection periods. Short- and long-term projections were estimated using negative binomial autoregression and Theil-Sen regression, respectively. We also used Gott's rule to estimate a baseline minimum-information projection. We then constructed an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20, 2018 to February 25, 2019, short-term model projections were validated against known case counts.ResultsDuring validation of short-term projections, from one week to four weeks, we found models consistently scored higher on shorter-term forecasts. Based on case counts as of February 25, the stochastic model projected a median case count of 933 cases by February 18 (95% prediction interval: 872-1054) and 955 cases by March 4 (95% prediction interval: 874-1105), while the auto-regression model projects median case counts of 889 (95% prediction interval: 876-933) and 898 (95% prediction interval: 877-983) cases for those dates, respectively. Projected median final counts range from 953 to 1,749. Although the outbreak is already larger than all past Ebola outbreaks other than the 2013-2016 outbreak of over 26,000 cases, our models do not project that it is likely to grow to that scale. The stochastic model estimates that vaccination coverage in this outbreak is lower than reported in its trial setting in Sierra Leone.ConclusionsOur projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges

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Association of Previous Measles Infection With Markers of Acute Infectious Disease Among 9- to 59-Month-Old Children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BackgroundTransient immunosuppression and increased susceptibility to other infections after measles infection is well known, but recent studies have suggested the occurrence of an "immune amnesia" that could have long-term immunosuppressive effects.MethodsWe examined the association between past measles infection and acute episodes of fever, cough, and diarrhea among 2350 children aged 9 to 59 months whose mothers were selected for interview in the 2013-2014 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Classification of children who had had measles was completed using maternal recall and measles immunoglobulin G serostatus obtained via dried-blood-spot analysis with a multiplex immunoassay. The association with time since measles infection and fever, cough, and diarrhea outcomes was also examined.ResultsThe odds of fever in the previous 2 weeks were 1.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-2.60) among children for whom measles was reported compared to children with no history of measles. Measles vaccination demonstrated a protective association against selected clinical markers of acute infectious diseases.ConclusionOur results suggest that measles might have a long-term effect on selected clinical markers of acute infectious diseases among children aged 9 to 59 months in the DRC. These findings support the immune-amnesia hypothesis suggested by others and underscore the need for continued evaluation and improvement of the DRC's measles vaccination program

Laparoscopic Laser Speckle Contrast Imaging Can Visualize Anastomotic Perfusion:A Demonstration in a Porcine Model

Background: Intestinal resection causes inevitable vascular damage, which cannot always be seen during an intraoperative clinical assessment of local intestinal perfusion. If left unaltered, impaired perfusion can lead to complications, such as anastomotic leakage (AL). Therefore, we demonstrate the use of a novel laparoscopic laser speckle contrast imaging (LSCI)-based approach in order to assess local intestinal perfusion during the construction of intestinal anastomoses. Methods: Three segments were isolated from the small intestine of a pig, while the perfusion of each was compromised by coagulating 7–8 mesenteric arteries. Both clinical assessments and LSCI were used to detect the induced perfusion deficits and to subsequently guide a transection in either a well perfused, marginally perfused, or poorly perfused tissue area within the segment. Bowel ends were then utilized for the creation of three differently perfused anastomoses: well perfused/well perfused (anastomosis segment 1), well perfused/poorly perfused (anastomosis segment 2), and poorly perfused/poorly perfused (anastomosis segment 3). After construction of the anastomoses, a final perfusion assessment using both clinical assessment and LSCI was executed in order to evaluate the vascular viability of the anastomosis. Results: Laparoscopic LSCI enabled continuous assessment of local intestinal perfusion and allowed for detection of perfusion deficits in real time. The imaging feedback precisely guided the surgical procedure, and, when evaluating the final anastomotic perfusion, LSCI was able to visualize the varying degrees of perfusion, whereas standard clinical assessment yielded only minor differences in visual appearance of the tissue. Conclusions: In this technical note, we demonstrate a novel LSCI-based approach for intraoperative perfusion assessment. With its ability to continuously visualize perfusion in real time, laparoscopic LSCI has significant potential for the optimization of anastomotic surgery in the near future

Neurological, Cognitive, and Psychological Findings Among Survivors of Ebola Virus Disease From the 1995 Ebola Outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo: A Cross-sectional Study.

BackgroundClinical sequelae of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have not been described more than 3 years postoutbreak. We examined survivors and close contacts from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and determined prevalence of abnormal neurological, cognitive, and psychological findings and their association with EVD survivorship.MethodsFrom August to September 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional study in Kikwit, DRC. Over 2 decades after the EVD outbreak, we recruited EVD survivors and close contacts from the outbreak to undergo physical examination and culturally adapted versions of the Folstein mini-mental status exam (MMSE) and Goldberg anxiety and depression scale (GADS). We estimated the strength of relationships between EVD survivorship and health outcomes using linear regression models by comparing survivors versus close contacts, adjusting for age, sex, educational level, marital status, and healthcare worker status.ResultsWe enrolled 20 EVD survivors and 187 close contacts. Among the 20 EVD survivors, 4 (20%) reported at least 1 abnormal neurological symptom, and 3 (15%) had an abnormal neurological examination. Among the 187 close contacts, 14 (11%) reported at least 1 abnormal neurologic symptom, and 9 (5%) had an abnormal neurological examination. EVD survivors had lower mean MMSE and higher mean GADS scores as compared to close contacts (MMSE: adjusted coefficient: -1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.63, -0.07; GADS: adjusted coefficient: 3.91; 95% CI: 1.76, 6.04).ConclusionsEVD survivors can have lower cognitive scores and more symptoms of depression and anxiety than close contacts more than 2 decades after Ebola virus outbreaks

Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration

Safety and immunogenicity of H1/IC31®, an adjuvanted TB subunit vaccine, in HIV-infected adults with CD4+ lymphocyte counts greater than 350 cells/mm3: a phase II, multi-centre, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Novel tuberculosis vaccines should be safe, immunogenic, and effective in various population groups, including HIV-infected individuals. In this phase II multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, the safety and immunogenicity of the novel H1/IC31 vaccine, a fusion protein of Ag85B-ESAT-6 (H1) formulated with the adjuvant IC31, was evaluated in HIV-infected adults. METHODS: HIV-infected adults with CD4+ T cell counts >350/mm3 and without evidence of active tuberculosis were enrolled and followed until day 182. H1/IC31 vaccine or placebo was randomly allocated in a 5:1 ratio. The vaccine was administered intramuscularly at day 0 and 56. Safety assessment was based on medical history, clinical examinations, and blood and urine testing. Immunogenicity was determined by a short-term whole blood intracellular cytokine staining assay. RESULTS: 47 of the 48 randomised participants completed both vaccinations. In total, 459 mild or moderate and 2 severe adverse events were reported. There were three serious adverse events in two vaccinees classified as not related to the investigational product. Local injection site reactions were more common in H1/IC31 versus placebo recipients (65.0% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.015). Solicited systemic and unsolicited adverse events were similar by study arm. The baseline CD4+ T cell count and HIV viral load were similar by study arm and remained constant over time. The H1/IC31 vaccine induced a persistent Th1-immune response with predominately TNF-α and IL-2 co-expressing CD4+ T cells, as well as polyfunctional IFN-γ, TNF-α and IL-2 expressing CD4+ T cells. CONCLUSION: H1/IC31 was well tolerated and safe in HIV-infected adults with a CD4+ Lymphocyte count greater than 350 cells/mm3. The vaccine did not have an effect on CD4+ T cell count or HIV-1 viral load. H1/IC31 induced a specific and durable Th1 immune response. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR) PACTR201105000289276