The True Colours of Carbon

Carbon offset projects in developing countries are one of the principal mechanisms designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable development yet have critical limitations in both areas. Here we present a framework for categorizing carbon offset projects according to four general approaches to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions: (1) efficiency ('Brown'); innovation ('Red'), terrestrial sequestration ('Green') or sequestration in aquatic environments ('Blue'). Analysis of the 6109 CDM projects currently in the CDM "pipeline" reveals that 99% are Brown or Red, and only 1% are Green or Blue, yet Green and Blue projects typically offer a far greater range of benefits for ecosystems and society. The analysis concludes that the designers of emissions trading schemes should endorse Green and Blue offset projects as preferred forms of emissions offsetting, and that firms using offsets for compliance purposes be required to declare in public reports the colours of their offset acquisitions. Such reform will help redirect demand in carbon markets toward blue and green offset projects, increasing the sustainability outcomes of carbon offset developments

Bacterial Communities of Two Ubiquitous Great Barrier Reef Corals Reveals Both Site- and Species-Specificity of Common Bacterial Associates

Background: Coral-associated bacteria are increasingly considered to be important in coral health, and altered bacterial community structures have been linked to both coral disease and bleaching. Despite this, assessments of bacterial communities on corals rarely apply sufficient replication to adequately describe the natural variability. Replicated data such as these are crucial in determining potential roles of bacteria on coral

Estimating viral prevalence with data fusion for adaptive two-phase pooled sampling.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of efficient sampling strategies and statistical methods for monitoring infection prevalence, both in humans and in reservoir hosts. Pooled testing can be an efficient tool for learning pathogen prevalence in a population. Typically, pooled testing requires a second-phase retesting procedure to identify infected individuals, but when the goal is solely to learn prevalence in a population, such as a reservoir host, there are more efficient methods for allocating the second-phase samples.To estimate pathogen prevalence in a population, this manuscript presents an approach for data fusion with two-phased testing of pooled samples that allows more efficient estimation of prevalence with less samples than traditional methods. The first phase uses pooled samples to estimate the population prevalence and inform efficient strategies for the second phase. To combine information from both phases, we introduce a Bayesian data fusion procedure that combines pooled samples with individual samples for joint inferences about the population prevalence.Data fusion procedures result in more efficient estimation of prevalence than traditional procedures that only use individual samples or a single phase of pooled sampling.The manuscript presents guidance on implementing the first-phase and second-phase sampling plans using data fusion. Such methods can be used to assess the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts to humans, or to track pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 in populations

Development and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Models for Prediction of Heat Transfer and Thermal Microenvironments of Corals

We present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of the coupled dynamics of water flow, heat transfer and irradiance in and around corals to predict temperatures experienced by corals. These models were validated against controlled laboratory experiments, under constant and transient irradiance, for hemispherical and branching corals. Our CFD models agree very well with experimental studies. A linear relationship between irradiance and coral surface warming was evident in both the simulation and experimental result agreeing with heat transfer theory. However, CFD models for the steady state simulation produced a better fit to the linear relationship than the experimental data, likely due to experimental error in the empirical measurements. The consistency of our modelling results with experimental observations demonstrates the applicability of CFD simulations, such as the models developed here, to coral bleaching studies. A study of the influence of coral skeletal porosity and skeletal bulk density on surface warming was also undertaken, demonstrating boundary layer behaviour, and interstitial flow magnitude and temperature profiles in coral cross sections. Our models compliment recent studies showing systematic changes in these parameters in some coral colonies and have utility in the prediction of coral bleaching

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (‘Life below Water’) of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia–Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds

Herbivory, Connectivity, and Ecosystem Resilience: Response of a Coral Reef to a Large-Scale Perturbation

Coral reefs world-wide are threatened by escalating local and global impacts, and some impacted reefs have shifted from coral dominance to a state dominated by macroalgae. Therefore, there is a growing need to understand the processes that affect the capacity of these ecosystems to return to coral dominance following disturbances, including those that prevent the establishment of persistent stands of macroalgae. Unlike many reefs in the Caribbean, over the last several decades, reefs around the Indo-Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia have consistently returned to coral dominance following major perturbations without shifting to a macroalgae-dominated state. Here, we present evidence of a rapid increase in populations of herbivorous fishes following the most recent perturbation, and show that grazing by these herbivores has prevented the establishment of macroalgae following near complete loss of coral on offshore reefs. Importantly, we found the positive response of herbivorous fishes to increased benthic primary productivity associated with coral loss was driven largely by parrotfishes that initially recruit to stable nursery habitat within the lagoons before moving to offshore reefs later in life. These results underscore the importance of connectivity between the lagoon and offshore reefs for preventing the establishment of macroalgae following disturbances, and indicate that protecting nearshore nursery habitat of herbivorous fishes is critical for maintaining reef resilience

Contrasting Patterns of Coral Bleaching Susceptibility in 2010 Suggest an Adaptive Response to Thermal Stress

Background: \ud Coral bleaching events vary in severity, however, to date, the hierarchy of susceptibility to bleaching among coral taxa has been consistent over a broad geographic range and among bleaching episodes. Here we examine the extent of spatial and temporal variation in thermal tolerance among scleractinian coral taxa and between locations during the 2010 thermally induced, large-scale bleaching event in South East Asia.\ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings: \ud Surveys to estimate the bleaching and mortality indices of coral genera were carried out at three locations with contrasting thermal and bleaching histories. Despite the magnitude of thermal stress being similar among locations in 2010, there was a remarkable contrast in the patterns of bleaching susceptibility. Comparisons of bleaching susceptibility within coral taxa and among locations revealed no significant differences between locations with similar thermal histories, but significant differences between locations with contrasting thermal histories (Friedman = 34.97; p,0.001). Bleaching was much less severe at locations that bleached during 1998, that had greater historical temperature variability and lower rates of warming. Remarkably, Acropora and Pocillopora, taxa that are typically highly susceptible, although among the most susceptible in Pulau Weh (Sumatra, Indonesia) where respectively, 94% and 87% of colonies died, were among the least susceptible in Singapore, where only 5% and 12% of colonies died.\ud \ud Conclusions/Significance: \ud The pattern of susceptibility among coral genera documented here is unprecedented. A parsimonious explanation for these results is that coral populations that bleached during the last major warming event in 1998 have adapted and/or acclimatised to thermal stress. These data also lend support to the hypothesis that corals in regions subject to more variable temperature regimes are more resistant to thermal stress than those in less variable environments

Additive Pressures of Elevated Sea Surface Temperatures and Herbicides on Symbiont-Bearing Foraminifera

Elevated ocean temperatures and agrochemical pollution individually threaten inshore coral reefs, but these pressures are likely to occur simultaneously. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the combined effects of elevated temperature and the photosystem II (PSII) inhibiting herbicide diuron on several types of symbiotic algae (diatom, dinoflagellate or rhodophyte) of benthic foraminifera in hospite. Diuron was shown to evoke a direct effect on photosynthetic efficiency (reduced effective PSII quantum yield ΔF/F′m), while elevated temperatures (>30°C, only 2°C above current average summer temperatures) were observed to impact photosynthesis more indirectly by causing reductions in maximum PSII quantum yield (Fv/Fm), interpreted as photodamage. Additionally, elevated temperatures were shown to cause bleaching through loss of chlorophyll a in foraminifera hosting either diatoms or dinoflagellates. A significant linear correlation was found between reduced Fv/Fm and loss of chlorophyll a. In most cases, symbionts within foraminifera proved more sensitive to thermal stress in the presence of diuron (≥1 µg L−1). The mixture toxicity model of Independent Action (IA) described the combined effects of temperature and diuron on the photosystem of species hosting diatoms or dinoflagellates convincingly and in agreement with probabilistic statistics, so a response additive joint action can be assumed. We thus demonstrate that improving water quality can improve resilience of symbiotic phototrophs to projected increases in ocean temperatures. As IA described the observed combined effects from elevated temperature and diuron stress it may therefore be employed for prediction of untested mixtures and for assessing the efficacy of management measures