Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Models for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality after Primary Liver Cancer Surgery

BACKGROUND: Since most published articles comparing the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) models and logistic regression (LR) models for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) outcomes used only a single dataset, the essential issue of internal validity (reproducibility) of the models has not been addressed. The study purposes to validate the use of ANN model for predicting in-hospital mortality in HCC surgery patients in Taiwan and to compare the predictive accuracy of ANN with that of LR model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients who underwent a HCC surgery during the period from 1998 to 2009 were included in the study. This study retrospectively compared 1,000 pairs of LR and ANN models based on initial clinical data for 22,926 HCC surgery patients. For each pair of ANN and LR models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and the relative importance of variables. Compared to the LR models, the ANN models had a better accuracy rate in 97.28% of cases, a better H-L statistic in 41.18% of cases, and a better AUROC curve in 84.67% of cases. Surgeon volume was the most influential (sensitive) parameter affecting in-hospital mortality followed by age and lengths of stay. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In comparison with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in the study was more accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data

Benefits, Barriers and Enablers of Breastfeeding: Factor Analysis of Population Perceptions in Western Australia

Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate knowledge and community perceptions of breastfeeding in Western Australia using a factor analysis approach. Methods: Data were pooled from five Nutrition Monitoring Survey Series which included information on breastfeeding from 4,802 Western Australian adults aged 18–64 years. Tetrachoric factor analysis was conducted for data reduction and significant associations identified using logistic, ordinal and poisson regression analyses. Results: Four factors were derived for benefits (it’s natural, good nutrition, good for the baby, and convenience), barriers (breastfeeding problems, poor community acceptability, having to go back to work, and inconvenience) and for enablers (breastfeeding education, community support, family support and not having to work).As assessed by standardized odds ratios the most important covariates across benefit factors were: importance of breastfeeding (ORs range from 1.22–1.44),female gender (ORs range from 0.80 to 1.46), being able to give a time for how long a baby should be breastfed (ORs range from 0.96 to 1.27) and education (less than high school to university completion) (ORs range from 0.95 to 1.23); the most important covariate across barrier factors was being able to give a time for how long a baby should be breastfed (ORs range from 0.89 to 1.93); and the most important covariates across all enabling factors were education (ORs range from 1.14 to1.32) and being able to give a time for how long a baby should be breastfed (ORs range from 1.17 to 1.42).Conclusions: Being female, rating breastfeeding as important, believing that babies should be breastfed for a period of time and education accounted for most of the statistically significant associations. The differences between male and female perceptions require investigation particularly in relation to returning to work

Paracellular Absorption: A Bat Breaks the Mammal Paradigm

Bats tend to have less intestinal tissue than comparably sized nonflying mammals. The corresponding reduction in intestinal volume and hence mass of digesta carried is advantageous because the costs of flight increase with load carried and because take-off and maneuverability are diminished at heavier masses. Water soluble compounds, such as glucose and amino acids, are absorbed in the small intestine mainly via two pathways, the transporter-mediated transcellular and the passive, paracellular pathways. Using the microchiropteran bat Artibeus literatus (mean mass 80.6±3.7 g), we tested the predictions that absorption of water-soluble compounds that are not actively transported would be extensive as a compensatory mechanism for relatively less intestinal tissue, and would decline with increasing molecular mass in accord with sieve-like paracellular absorption. Using a standard pharmacokinetic technique, we fed, or injected intraperitonealy the metabolically inert carbohydrates L-rhamnose (molecular mass = 164 Da) and cellobiose (molecular mass = 342 Da) which are absorbed only by paracellular transport, and 3-O-methyl-D-glucose (3OMD-glucose) which is absorbed via both mediated (active) and paracellular transport. As predicted, the bioavailability of paracellular probes declined with increasing molecular mass (rhamnose, 90±11%; cellobiose, 10±3%, n = 8) and was significantly higher in bats than has been reported for laboratory rats and other mammals. In addition, absorption of 3OMD-glucose was high (96±11%). We estimated that the bats rely on passive, paracellular absorption for more than 70% of their total glucose absorption, much more than in non-flying mammals. Although possibly compensating for less intestinal tissue, a high intestinal permeability that permits passive absorption might be less selective than a carrier-mediated system for nutrient absorption and might permit toxins to be absorbed from plant and animal material in the intestinal lumen

Blockade of interleukin-6 signaling inhibits the classic pathway and promotes an alternative pathway of macrophage activation after spinal cord injury in mice

Background Recent in vivo and in vitro studies in non-neuronal and neuronal tissues have shown that different pathways of macrophage activation result in cells with different properties. Interleukin (IL)-6 triggers the classically activated inflammatory macrophages (M1 phenotype), whereas the alternatively activated macrophages (M2 phenotype) are anti-inflammatory. The objective of this study was to clarify the effects of a temporal blockade of IL-6/IL-6 receptor (IL-6R) engagement, using an anti-mouse IL-6R monoclonal antibody (MR16-1), on macrophage activation and the inflammatory response in the acute phase after spinal cord injury (SCI) in mice. Methods MR16-1 antibodies versus isotype control antibodies or saline alone were administered immediately after thoracic SCI in mice. SC tissue repair was compared between the two groups by Luxol fast blue (LFB) staining for myelination and immunoreactivity for the neuronal markers growth-associated protein (GAP)-43 and neurofilament heavy 200 kDa (NF-H) and for locomotor function. The expression of T helper (Th)1 cytokines (interferon (IFN)-? and tumor necrosis factor-a) and Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-13) was determined by immunoblot analysis. The presence of M1 (inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS)-positive, CD16/32-positive) and M2 (arginase 1-positive, CD206-positive) macrophages was determined by immunohistology. Using flow cytometry, we also quantified IFN-? and IL-4 levels in neutrophils, microglia, and macrophages, and Mac-2 (macrophage antigen-2) and Mac-3 in M2 macrophages and microglia. Results LFB-positive spared myelin was increased in the MR16-1-treated group compared with the controls, and this increase correlated with enhanced positivity for GAP-43 or NF-H, and improved locomotor Basso Mouse Scale scores. Immunoblot analysis of the MR16-1-treated samples identified downregulation of Th1 and upregulation of Th2 cytokines. Whereas iNOS-positive, CD16/32-positive M1 macrophages were the predominant phenotype in the injured SC of non-treated control mice, MR16-1 treatment promoted arginase 1-positive, CD206-positive M2 macrophages, with preferential localization of these cells at the injury site. MR16-1 treatment suppressed the number of IFN-?-positive neutrophils, and increased the number of microglia present and their positivity for IL-4. Among the arginase 1-positive M2 macrophages, MR16-1 treatment increased positivity for Mac-2 and Mac-3, suggestive of increased phagocytic behavior. Conclusion The results suggest that temporal blockade of IL-6 signaling after SCI abrogates damaging inflammatory activity and promotes functional recovery by promoting the formation of alternatively activated M2 macrophages

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The final article in a series of three publications examining the global distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of malaria is presented here. The first publication examined the DVS from the Americas, with the second covering those species present in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Here we discuss the 19 DVS of the Asian-Pacific region. This region experiences a high diversity of vector species, many occurring sympatrically, which, combined with the occurrence of a high number of species complexes and suspected species complexes, and behavioural plasticity of many of these major vectors, adds a level of entomological complexity not comparable elsewhere globally. To try and untangle the intricacy of the vectors of this region and to increase the effectiveness of vector control interventions, an understanding of the contemporary distribution of each species, combined with a synthesis of the current knowledge of their behaviour and ecology is needed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Expert opinion (EO) range maps, created with the most up-to-date expert knowledge of each DVS distribution, were combined with a contemporary database of occurrence data and a suite of open access, environmental and climatic variables. Using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modelling method, distribution maps of each DVS were produced. The occurrence data were abstracted from the formal, published literature, plus other relevant sources, resulting in the collation of DVS occurrence at 10116 locations across 31 countries, of which 8853 were successfully geo-referenced and 7430 were resolved to spatial areas that could be included in the BRT model. A detailed summary of the information on the bionomics of each species and species complex is also presented.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This article concludes a project aimed to establish the contemporary global distribution of the DVS of malaria. The three articles produced are intended as a detailed reference for scientists continuing research into the aspects of taxonomy, biology and ecology relevant to species-specific vector control. This research is particularly relevant to help unravel the complicated taxonomic status, ecology and epidemiology of the vectors of the Asia-Pacific region. All the occurrence data, predictive maps and EO-shape files generated during the production of these publications will be made available in the public domain. We hope that this will encourage data sharing to improve future iterations of the distribution maps.</p

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Notes for genera: basal clades of Fungi (including Aphelidiomycota, Basidiobolomycota, Blastocladiomycota, Calcarisporiellomycota, Caulochytriomycota, Chytridiomycota, Entomophthoromycota, Glomeromycota, Kickxellomycota, Monoblepharomycota, Mortierellomycota, Mucoromycota, Neocallimastigomycota, Olpidiomycota, Rozellomycota and Zoopagomycota)

Compared to the higher fungi (Dikarya), taxonomic and evolutionary studies on the basal clades of fungi are fewer in number. Thus, the generic boundaries and higher ranks in the basal clades of fungi are poorly known. Recent DNA based taxonomic studies have provided reliable and accurate information. It is therefore necessary to compile all available information since basal clades genera lack updated checklists or outlines. Recently, Tedersoo et al. (MycoKeys 13:1--20, 2016) accepted Aphelidiomycota and Rozellomycota in Fungal clade. Thus, we regard both these phyla as members in Kingdom Fungi. We accept 16 phyla in basal clades viz. Aphelidiomycota, Basidiobolomycota, Blastocladiomycota, Calcarisporiellomycota, Caulochytriomycota, Chytridiomycota, Entomophthoromycota, Glomeromycota, Kickxellomycota, Monoblepharomycota, Mortierellomycota, Mucoromycota, Neocallimastigomycota, Olpidiomycota, Rozellomycota and Zoopagomycota. Thus, 611 genera in 153 families, 43 orders and 18 classes are provided with details of classification, synonyms, life modes, distribution, recent literature and genomic data. Moreover, Catenariaceae Couch is proposed to be conserved, Cladochytriales Mozl.-Standr. is emended and the family Nephridiophagaceae is introduced

Persistent and transient cost efficiency—an application to the Swiss hydropower sector

© 2017 The Author(s) Electricity prices on the European market have decreased significantly over the past few years, resulting in a deterioration of Swiss hydropower firms’ competitiveness and profitability. One option to improve the sector’s competitiveness is to increase cost efficiency. The goal of this study is to quantify the level of persistent and transient cost efficiency of individual firms by applying the generalized true random effects (GTRE) model introduced by Colombi et al. (Journal of Productivity Analysis 42(2): 123–136, 2014) and Filippini and Greene (Journal of Productivity Analysis 45(2): 187–196, 2016). Applying this newly developed GTRE model to a total cost function, the level of cost efficiency of 65 Swiss hydropower firms is analyzed for the period between 2000 and 2013. A true random effects specification is estimated as a benchmark for the transient level of cost efficiency. The results show the presence of both transient as well as persistent cost inefficiencies. The GTREM predicts the aggregate level of cost inefficiency to amount to 21.8% (8.0% transient, 13.8% persistent) on average between 2000 and 2013. These two components differ in interpretation and implication. From an individual firm’s perspective, the two types of cost inefficiencies might require a firm’s management to respond with different improvement strategies. The existing level of persistent inefficiency could prevent the hydropower firms from adjusting their production processes to new market environments. From a regulatory point of view, the results of this study could be used in the scope and determination of the amount of financial support given to struggling firms