Pendugaan Parameter Deret Waktu Hidden Markov Hamilton*

Pendugaan parameter untuk model deret waktu Hidden Markov Hamilton (1994) dilakukan mengunakan Metode Maximum Likelihood dan pendugaan ulang menggunakan metode Expectation Maximization. Dari kajian ini diperoleh algoritma untuk menduga parameter model

An introduction to spacecraft thermal control

External and internal passive and active methods for spacecraft thermal control - material insulation and structural propertie

Lidar measurement of stratospheric aerosol at Syowa Station, Antarctica

Lidar measurement on Antarctic aerosols were made during the Antarctic Middle Atmosphere (AMA) period, 1983 to 1985, at Syowa Station. Topics measured are winter enhancement aerosol layer and volcanic effect of El Chichon on the Antarctic stratosphere aerosols. The large depolarization ratio (maximum value was about 0.8) seems to support sublimation growth of ice crystals. The lidar measurements showed a meaningful time lag between aerosol content increase and depolarization ratio increase. Considering the balloon observations made in early winter, it was speculated that an increase in large particle number concentration also contributed to the winter enhancement. The El Chichon cloud spread to the Antarctic region by the beginning of 1983. The temporal change of integrated backscatter coefficient shows a clear decay pattern, although strong winter enhancement superposes

Genetic analysis of Myanmar Vigna species in responses to salt stress at the seedling stage

Twelve (12) Vigna genotypes were investigated for the evaluation of their tolerance levels in responses to four concentrations of NaCl (0, 75, 150 and 225 mM) at seedling stage. In the investigation, salt stress inhibited almost all the growth parameters as well as relative water content;  however, the degree of reduction was highly dependent on different genotypes and salinity levels. Generally, the control plants showed higher degree of all measured parameters than those of salt stress plants. Analysis of the heredity parameters based on the 12 investigated genotypes showed different genotypic variance of the salt tolerance index (STI) values. Salinity stress induced two new bands between 45 and 22 kDa, respectively, in salt tolerant genotypes. Furthermore, band intensity of the salt treated genotypes was higher than the control plants. Ward’s clustering technique was clearly divided into two clusters, A and B, according to their levels of salt tolerance. Considering their STI values of growth parameters, two genotypes V7 and V4 were identified as salt tolerant, whereas, V2, V6, V9, V8, V11 and V1 were recognized as salinity susceptible genotypes. These results suggest that, the genetically diverseaccessions resistant to salt stresses within the Vigna genotypes can be of considerable practical value for studying the mechanism of salt tolerance and for the provision of genetic resources for salinity breeding program.Key words: Cluster analysis, heritability, salt tolerance, SDS-PAGE, Vigna

PEMODELAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP $US MENGGUNAKAN DERET WAKTU HIDDEN MARKOV HAMILTON*

Perilaku nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap $US dari tahun 1998 sampai dengan 2007 dicoba dimodelkan dengan menggunakan deret waktu Hidden Markov. Pendugaan parameter model dilakukan mengunakan Metode Maximum Likelihood dan pendugaan ulang menggunakan metode Expectation Maximization. Hasil yang diperoleh cukup baik karena sudah menggambarkan secara umum perilaku nilai tukar Rupiah tetapi galat antara nilai harapan dengan nilai sebenarnya masih cukup besar

Lidar observation of the mesospheric sodium layer in Antarctica

The mesospheric sodium layer has been observed at Syowa Station in Antarctica during the wintering period of the 26th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition. A lidar observation of the polar middle atmosphere at the station has been performed as a part of the Middle Atmosphere Program since 1983. At first stratospheric aerosols have been observed by the system based on a ruby laser. In 1985 a new transmitting system consisting of a tunable dye laser was added to that system to observe the sodium layer, too. The characteristics of the lidar system are given. The results of the mesospheric sodium layer observed on 42 nights during the period from March to October, 1985 are also given

Successful Late Management of Esophageal Perforation with T-Tube Drainage

The late management of spontaneous esophageal perforation is the most challenging problem for the surgeon. In this paper, we present a case in whom a spontaneous esophageal perforation was successfully treated by T-tube drainage after unsuccessful conservative treatment. The patient, a 68-year-old male, was admitted to the hospital with sudden upper abdominal pain. After 2 days, esophageal perforation was diagnosed, and conservative management was begun. Thereafter, the subcutaneous emphysema disappeared, and the patient's temperature decreased. However, on day 13, the patient's temperature spiked above 38°C, and computed tomography showed a mediastinal abscess. An emergency left thoracotomy with laparotomy was performed. Since a 2-cm longitudinal perforation with severe inflammatory reactions was observed, the T-tube drainage method was performed. The patient was discharged without postoperative complications and has not experienced any gastrointestinal symptoms, such as gastroesophageal reflux or dysphagia. In conclusion, the T-tube drainage method appears to be a simple and effective method for the late management of esophageal perforation with severe inflammatory reaction

Development and validation of a HPLC method for the determination of aldicarb, aldicarb sulfoxide and aldicarb sulfone in liquid samples from anaerobic reactors

This study describes the development and validation of a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for detecting aldicarb and its residues in liquid samples without pretreatment. The HPLC system was equipped with a C-18 column and the mobile phase was composed of a mixture of water and acetonitrile using a linear gradient elution. The UV detector was utilized at 210 nm. Methomyl was used as an internal standard. Water and synthetic medium were used as solvents. The method was linear from 0.49-15.0 mg L-1 (r² > 0.9985), 0.1-5.0 mg L-1 (r² > 0.9974) and 0.1-5.0 mg L-1 (r² > 0.9987) for aldicarb, aldicarb sulfoxide and aldicarb sulfone, respectively. The linearity of the method was confirmed by the ANOVA F-test through adjustment of the linear model, validity of the regression and efficiency of the regression tests. The limit of detection in water and synthetic medium were of 0.391/0.440 mg L-1, 0.069/0.192 mg L-1 and 0.033/0.068 mg L-1 for aldicarb, aldicarb sulfoxide and aldicarb sulfone, respectively. Total time of analysis was of 22 min. In the application of the method, the aldicarb degradation in horizontal-flow anaerobic immobilized biomass (HAIB) reactor was evaluated under different conditions (methanogenic, sulfidogenic and denitrifying).Este trabalho descreve o desenvolvimento e validação de um método de detecção de aldicarbe e seus metabólitos por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência (HPLC) em amostras líquidas sem pré-tratamento. O sistema HPLC foi equipado com coluna C-18 e fase móvel composta de água e acetonitrila empregando gradiente de eluição linear. O detector UV foi operado em 210 nm. Metomil foi utilizado como padrão interno. Água e meio sintético foram utilizados como solventes. O método foi linear de 0,49-15,0 mg L-1 (r² > 0,9985), 0,1-5,0 mg L-1 (r² > 0,9974) e 0,1-5,0 mg L-1 (r² > 0,9987) para o aldicarbe, sulfóxido de aldicarbe e sulfona de aldicarbe, respectivamente. A linearidade do método foi confirmada pelo teste F (ANOVA) através dos testes de ajuste do modelo linear, validade da regressão e eficiência da regressão. Os limites de detecção na água e em meio sintético foram de 0,391/0,440 mg L-1, 0,069/0,192 mg L-1 e 0,033/0,068 mg L-1 para o aldicarbe, sulfóxido de aldicarbe e sulfona de aldicarbe, respectivamente. O tempo total de análise foi de 22 minutos. Na aplicação do método, avaliou-se a degradação do aldicarbe no reator anaeróbio horizontal de leito fixo (RAHLF) em diferentes condições operacionais (metanogênese, sulfetogênese e desnitrificação).Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq