The Economic Crisis of 2008 and World Shipping: Unheeded Warnings

Cyclicality in shipping is inherent. However, the speed and amplitude of market changes, since the fateful collapse of Lehman brothers in 2008 - distinguishes this particular crisis from most previous cycles. Predictions and investment moves made until immediately before the crisis have, in retrospect, been proven erroneous. The same applies to many of freight rate forecasts made subsequently. Yet, the information for deciphering market signals was already there in the critical months before the crisis, the authors argue. The paper demonstrates that if investors had relied on certain very simple indices of over-investment in new ships, they would have concluded that the advent of an inflexion point was unavoidable. A market turn should have been anticipated even if favourable demand developments were to continue undisrupted. Indices such as the ratio of orderbook to the existing fleet had deviated manifold from their long-term average since the previous major cycle. The authors conclude that the nature of this last cycle, akin in many respects with the origins and course of the crisis of the 1970s and the 1980s was determined more by what Metaxas called in 1971 "endemic tendency to over-invest"

Uncertainty Detection as Approximate Max-Margin Sequence Labelling

This paper reports experiments for the CoNLL 2010 shared task on learning to detect hedges and their scope in natural language text. We have addressed the experimental tasks as supervised linear maximum margin prediction problems. For sentence level hedge detection in the biological domain we use an L1-regularised binary support vector machine, while for sentence level weasel detection in the Wikipedia domain, we use an L2-regularised approach. We model the in-sentence uncertainty cue and scope detection task as an L2-regularised approximate maximum margin sequence labelling problem, using the BIO-encoding. In addition to surface level features, we use a variety of linguistic features based on a functional dependency analysis. A greedy forward selection strategy is used in exploring the large set of potential features. Our official results for Task 1 for the biological domain are 85.2 F1-score, for the Wikipedia set 55.4 F1-score. For Task 2, our official results are 2.1 for the entire task with a score of 62.5 for cue detection. After resolving errors and final bugs, our final results are for Task 1, biological: 86.0, Wikipedia: 58.2; Task 2, scopes: 39.6 and cues: 78.5

Photonic integration enabling new multiplexing concepts in optical board-to-board and rack-to-rack interconnects

New broadband applications are causing the datacenters to proliferate, raising the bar for higher interconnection speeds. So far, optical board-to-board and rack-to-rack interconnects relied primarily on low-cost commodity optical components assembled in a single package. Although this concept proved successful in the first generations of optical-interconnect modules, scalability is a daunting issue as signaling rates extend beyond 25 Gb/s. In this paper we present our work towards the development of two technology platforms for migration beyond Infiniband enhanced data rate (EDR), introducing new concepts in board-to-board and rack-to-rack interconnects. The first platform is developed in the framework of MIRAGE European project and relies on proven VCSEL technology, exploiting the inherent cost, yield, reliability and power consumption advantages of VCSELs. Wavelength multiplexing, PAM-4 modulation and multi-core fiber (MCF) multiplexing are introduced by combining VCSELs with integrated Si and glass photonics as well as BiCMOS electronics. An in-plane MCF-to-SOI interface is demonstrated, allowing coupling from the MCF cores to 340x400 nm Si waveguides. Development of a low-power VCSEL driver with integrated feed-forward equalizer is reported, allowing PAM-4 modulation of a bandwidth-limited VCSEL beyond 25 Gbaud. The second platform, developed within the frames of the European project PHOXTROT, considers the use of modulation formats of increased complexity in the context of optical interconnects. Powered by the evolution of DSP technology and towards an integration path between inter and intra datacenter traffic, this platform investigates optical interconnection system concepts capable to support 16QAM 40GBd data traffic, exploiting the advancements of silicon and polymer technologies

Segmented optical transmitter comprising a CMOS driver array and an InP IQ-MZM for advanced modulation formats

Segmented Mach-Zehnder modulators are promising solutions to generate complex modulation schemes in the migration towards optical links with a higher-spectral efficiency. We present an optical transmitter comprising a segmented-electrode InP IQ-MZM, capable of multilevel optical signal generation (5-bit per I/Q arm) by employing direct digital drive from integrated, low-power (1W) CMOS binary drivers. We discuss the advantages and design tradeoffs of the segmented driver structure and the implementation in a 40 nm CMOS technology. Multilevel operation with combined phase and amplitude modulation is demonstrated experimentally on a single MZM of the device for 2-ASK-2PSK and 4-ASK-2-PSK, showing potential for respectively 16-QAM and 64-QAM modulation in future assemblies

A programmable, multi-format photonic transceiver platform enabling flexible optical networks

Development of programmable photonic devices for future flexible optical networks is ongoing. To this end, an innovative, multi-format QAM transmitter design is presented. It comprises a segmented-electrode InP IQ-MZM to be fabricated in InP, which can be directly driven by low-power CMOS logic. Arbitrary optical QAM format generation is made possible using only binary electrical signals, without the need for high-performance DACs and high-swing linear drivers. The concept enables a host of Tx-side DSP functionality, including the spectral shaping needed for Nyquist-WDM system concepts. In addition, we report on the development of an optical channel MUX/DEMUX, based on arrays of microresonator filters with reconfigurable bandwidths and center wavelengths. The device is intended for operation with multi-format flexible transceivers, enabling Dense (D)WDM superchannel aggregation and arbitrary spectral slicing in the context of a flexible grid environment

Mineração em metadados aplicados ao processo de desenvolvimento de coleções

The increasing of the new scientific areas, along with the multitude of information items, it's pushing the librarians to find creatively novel ways to gather information for the development of the collection under their responsability. This must definitely change the usual practice of these professionals towards mastering moderns IT tools in order to better analyse a huge volume of data in a shorter amount of time. Hence, this paper discusses a proposal of building metadata of the syllabus plans, within a university to easy the minering some important information out of them as part of a master collection development policy

Design of electronic active filters from ladder networks using linear transformations

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