Is It Always Unethical to Use a Placebo in a Clinical Trial?

Background to the debate: Placebos are used in trials to conceal whether a treatment is being given or not and hence to control for the psychosomatic effects of offering treatment. Placebo-controlled trials are controversial. Critics of such trials argue that if a proven effective therapy exists, a placebo should not be used. But proponents argue that placebo trials are still crucial to prove the efficacy and safety of many treatments

Comparing adaptive and fixed bandwidth-based kernel density estimates in spatial cancer epidemiology

Background: Monitoring spatial disease risk (e.g. identifying risk areas) is of great relevance in public health research, especially in cancer epidemiology. A common strategy uses case-control studies and estimates a spatial relative risk function (sRRF) via kernel density estimation (KDE). This study was set up to evaluate the sRRF estimation methods, comparing fixed with adaptive bandwidth-based KDE, and how they were able to detect ‘risk areas’ with case data from a population-based cancer registry. Methods: The sRRF were estimated within a defined area, using locational information on incident cancer cases and on a spatial sample of controls, drawn from a high-resolution population grid recognized as underestimating the resident population in urban centers. The spatial extensions of these areas with underestimated resident population were quantified with population reference data and used in this study as ‘true risk areas’. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were conducted by spatial overlay of the ‘true risk areas’ and the significant (α=.05) p-contour lines obtained from the sRRF. Results: We observed that the fixed bandwidth-based sRRF was distinguished by a conservative behavior in identifying these urban ‘risk areas’, that is, a reduced sensitivity but increased specificity due to oversmoothing as compared to the adaptive risk estimator. In contrast, the latter appeared more competitive through variance stabilization, resulting in a higher sensitivity, while the specificity was equal as compared to the fixed risk estimator. Halving the originally determined bandwidths led to a simultaneous improvement of sensitivity and specificity of the adaptive sRRF, while the specificity was reduced for the fixed estimator. Conclusion: The fixed risk estimator contrasts with an oversmoothing tendency in urban areas, while overestimating the risk in rural areas. The use of an adaptive bandwidth regime attenuated this pattern, but led in general to a higher false positive rate, because, in our study design, the majority of true risk areas were located in urban areas. However, there is a strong need for further optimizing the bandwidth selection methods, especially for the adaptive sRRF.<br

Detecting cancer clusters in a regional population with local cluster tests and Bayesian smoothing methods: a simulation study

Background: There is a rising public and political demand for prospective cancer cluster monitoring. But there is little empirical evidence on the performance of established cluster detection tests under conditions of small and heterogeneous sample sizes and varying spatial scales, such as are the case for most existing population-based cancer registries. Therefore this simulation study aims to evaluate different cluster detection methods, implemented in the open soure environment R, in their ability to identify clusters of lung cancer using real-life data from an epidemiological cancer registry in Germany. Methods: Risk surfaces were constructed with two different spatial cluster types, representing a relative risk of RR = 2.0 or of RR = 4.0, in relation to the overall background incidence of lung cancer, separately for men and women. Lung cancer cases were sampled from this risk surface as geocodes using an inhomogeneous Poisson process. The realisations of the cancer cases were analysed within small spatial (census tracts, N = 1983) and within aggregated large spatial scales (communities, N = 78). Subsequently, they were submitted to the cluster detection methods. The test accuracy for cluster location was determined in terms of detection rates (DR), false-positive (FP) rates and positive predictive values. The Bayesian smoothing models were evaluated using ROC curves. Results: With moderate risk increase (RR = 2.0), local cluster tests showed better DR (for both spatial aggregation scales > 0.90) and lower FP rates (both < 0.05) than the Bayesian smoothing methods. When the cluster RR was raised four-fold, the local cluster tests showed better DR with lower FPs only for the small spatial scale. At a large spatial scale, the Bayesian smoothing methods, especially those implementing a spatial neighbourhood, showed a substantially lower FP rate than the cluster tests. However, the risk increases at this scale were mostly diluted by data aggregation. Conclusion: High resolution spatial scales seem more appropriate as data base for cancer cluster testing and monitoring than the commonly used aggregated scales. We suggest the development of a two-stage approach that combines methods with high detection rates as a first-line screening with methods of higher predictive ability at the second stage.<br

Are there sustained psychological impacts in women diagnosed with in-situ or early invasive breast cancers?

PurposeThe detection of a ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS) or an early invasive breast cancer (EIBC), particularly by population-wide mammography-screening-programs, is controversial as an unknown proportion of these cases may be due to overdiagnosis. We investigated whether women with such potentially overdiagnosed breast cancers suffer from sustained adverse psycho-social consequences.MethodsStandardized questionnaires were mailed to 900 survivors, diagnosed with either DCIS or EIBC, requesting self-reports on quality of life using EORTC Quality of Life Questionnaire C-30. Levels of anxiety and depression were assessed using the HADS questionnaires. Item score values in the study group were compared to reference data obtained from normative studies in the German female reference population.ResultsThe 577 women who returned completed questionnaires had a mean age of 65.1 years, 387 (67%) had been diagnosed by mammography screening. Median time since diagnosis was 5.9 years. There were no substantial differences between the study sample and the reference population for most of the items. While most score values were even slightly more favorable in the study group, the scores for cognitive function were moderately lower, especially among younger patients. Score values for anxiety were generally higher among younger women (50 to 59 years) from the study group, while depression scores were lower irrespective of age.ConclusionsThis study indicates that the diagnosis of DCIS or EIBC, which is predominantly a result of screening, does not seem to induce sustained, adverse psychological impacts in affected women when compared with the respective general female population. Only anxiety levels remained elevated among younger women

Quality of record linkage in a highly automated cancer registry that relies on encrypted identity data

Objectives: In the absence of unique ID numbers, cancer and other registries in Germany and elsewhere rely on identity data to link records pertaining to the same patient. These data are often encrypted to ensure privacy. Some record linkage errors unavoidably occur. These errors were quantified for the cancer registry of North Rhine Westphalia which uses encrypted identity data. Methods: A sample of records was drawn from the registry, record linkage information was included. In parallel, plain text data for these records were retrieved to generate a gold standard. Record linkage error frequencies in the cancer registry were determined by comparison of the results of the routine linkage with the gold standard. Error rates were projected to larger registries. Results: In the sample studied, the homonym error rate was 0.015%; the synonym error rate was 0.2%. The F-measure was 0.9921. Projection to larger databases indicated that for a realistic development the homonym error rate will be around 1%, the synonym error rate around 2%. Conclusion: Observed error rates are low. This shows that effective methods to standardize and improve the quality of the input data have been implemented. This is crucial to keep error rates low when the registry’s database grows. The planned inclusion of unique health insurance numbers is likely to further improve record linkage quality. Cancer registration entirely based on electronic notification of records can process large amounts of data with high quality of record linkage

Automated detection of Diabetic Retinopathy in Three European Populations

Objective: Currently 1/12 of the world’s population has diabetes mellitus (DM), many are or will be screened by having retinal images taken. This current study aims to compare the DAPHNE software’s ability to detect DR in three different European populations compared to human grading carried out at the Moorfields Eye Hospital Reading Centre (MEHRC). Participants: Retinal images were taken from participants of the HAPIEE study (Lithuania, n=1014), the PAMDI study (Italy, n=882) and the MARS study (Germany, n=909). Methods: All anonymized images were graded by human graders at MEHRC for the presence of DR. Independently, and without any knowledge of the human grader’s results, the DAPHNE software analysed the images and divided the participants into DR and no-DR groups. Main outcome measures: The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of the DAPHNE software with regards to the identification of DR or no-DR on retinal images as compared to the human grader as reference standard. Results: A total of 2805 participants were enrolled from the three study sites. The sensitivity of the DAPHNE software was above 93% in all three studies specificity was above 80%, the PPV was above 28% and the NPV was not below 98.8% in any of the studies. The DAPHNE software did not miss any vision-threatening DR. The areas under the curve (AUC) for all three studies were above 0.96. DAPHNE reduced manual human workload by 70% but had a total false positive rate of 63%. Conclusions: The DAPHNE software showed to be reliable to detect DR on three different European populations, using three different imaging settings. Further testing is required to see scalability, performance on live DR screening systems and on camera settings different to these studies

Cancer incidence in type 2 diabetes patients - first results from a feasibility study of the D2C cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A large prospective study in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), the German D2C cohort, is presently being enumerated to investigate risk factors of incident cancer in diabetic patients.</p> <p>Study setting</p> <p>A disease management program was offered, on a voluntary basis, to all T2D patients who were members of a statutory health insurance fund in Germany. This first feasibility report uses data from 26.742 T2D patients, who were 40 to 79 years old, resided in the Muenster District, and who were enrolled between June 2003 and July 2008. Cancer cases were identified through the regional Cancer Registry.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Invasive cancer cases were identified using probabilistic record linkage procedures and pseudonymised personal identifiers. Censoring date was December 31, 2008. We included only first cancers, leaving 12.650 male and 14.092 female T2D with a total of 88.778 person-years (py). We computed standardised incidence ratios (SIR) for external comparisons and we employed Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR) within the cohort.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 759 first cancers among male T2D patients (18.7 per 1,000 py) and 605 among females (12.7 per 1,000 py). The risk of any incident cancer in T2D was raised (SIR = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [1.10 - 1.21]), in particular for cancer of the liver (SIR = 1.94 [1.15 - 2.94]) and pancreas (SIR = 1.45 [1.07-1.92]). SIRs decreased markedly with time after T2D diagnosis. In Cox models, adjusting for diabetes duration, body mass index and sex, insulin therapy was related to higher cancer risk (HR = 1.25 [1.17 - 1.33]). No effect was seen for metformin.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Our study demonstrates feasibility of record linkage between DMP and cancer registries. These first cohort results confirm previous reports. It is envisaged to enhance this cohort by inclusion of further regions of the state, expansion of the follow-up times, and collection of a more detailed medication history.</p

Ophthalmology

OBJECTIVE: In the current study we aimed to identify metabolites associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by performing the largest metabolome association analysis in AMD to date. In addition, we aimed to determine the effect of AMD-associated genetic variants on metabolite levels, and aimed to investigate associations between the identified metabolites and activity of the complement system, one of the main AMD-associated disease pathways. DESIGN: Case-control assocation analysis of metabolomics data. SUBJECTS: 2,267 AMD cases and 4,266 controls from five European cohorts. METHODS: Metabolomics was performed using a high-throughput H-NMR metabolomics platform, which allows the quantification of 146 metabolite measurements and 79 derivative values. Metabolome-AMD associations were studied using univariate logistic regression analyses. The effect of 52 AMD-associated genetic variants on the identified metabolites was investigated using linear regression. In addition, associations between the identified metabolites and activity of the complement pathway (defined by the C3d/C3 ratio) were investigated using linear regression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Metabolites associated with AMD RESULTS: We identified 60 metabolites that were significantly associated with AMD, including increased levels of large and extra-large HDL subclasses and decreased levels of VLDL, amino acids and citrate. Out of 52 AMD-associated genetic variants, seven variants were significantly associated with 34 of the identified metabolites. The strongest associations were identified for genetic variants located in or near genes involved in lipid metabolism (ABCA1, CETP, APOE, LIPC) with metabolites belonging to the large and extra-large HDL subclasses. In addition, 57 out of 60 metabolites were significantly associated with complement activation levels, and these associations were independent of AMD status. Increased large and extra-large HDL levels and decreased VLDL and amino acid levels were associated with increased complement activation. CONCLUSIONS: Lipoprotein levels were associated with AMD-associated genetic variants, while decreased essential amino acids may point to nutritional deficiencies in AMD. We observed strong associations between the vast majority of the AMD-associated metabolites and systemic complement activation levels, independent of AMD status. This may indicate biological interactions between the main AMD disease pathways, and suggests that multiple pathways may need to be targeted simultaneously for successful treatment of AMD

Prevalence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Europe: The Past and the Future

Purpose Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a frequent, complex disorder in elderly of European ancestry. Risk profiles and treatment options have changed considerably over the years, which may have affected disease prevalence and outcome. We determined the prevalence of early and late AMD in Europe from 1990 to 2013 using the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium, and made projections for the future. Design Meta-analysis of prevalence data. Participants A total of 42 080 individuals 40 years of age and older participating in 14 population-based cohorts from 10 countries in Europe. Methods AMD was diagnosed based on fundus photographs using the Rotterdam Classification. Prevalence of early and late AMD was calculated using random-effects meta-analysis stratified for age, birth cohort, gender, geographic region, and time period of the study. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was compared between late AMD subtypes; geographic atrophy (GA) and choroidal neovascularization (CNV). Main Outcome Measures Prevalence of early and late AMD, BCVA, and number of AMD cases. Results Prevalence of early AMD increased from 3.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1%–5.0%) in those aged 55–59 years to 17.6% (95%