Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modelled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modelled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1,476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modelled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modelled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques

Social Determinants and the Classification of Disease: Descriptive Epidemiology of Selected Socially Mediated Disease Constellations

Background Most major diseases have important social determinants. In this context, classification of disease based on etiologic or anatomic criteria may be neither mutually exclusive nor optimal. Methods and Findings Units of analysis comprised large metropolitan central and fringe metropolitan counties with reliable mortality rates – (n = 416). Participants included infants and adults ages 25 to 64 years with selected causes of death (1999 to 2006). Exposures included that residential segregation and race-specific social deprivation variables. Main outcome measures were obtained via principal components analyses with an orthogonal rotation to identify a common factor. To discern whether the common factor was socially mediated, negative binomial multiple regression models were developed for which the dependent variable was the common factor. Results showed that infant deaths, mortality from assault, and malignant neoplasm of the trachea, bronchus and lung formed a common factor for race-gender groups (black/white and men/women). Regression analyses showed statistically significant, positive associations between low socio-economic status for all race-gender groups and this common factor. Conclusions Between 1999 and 2006, deaths classified as “assault” and “lung cancer”, as well as “infant mortality” formed a socially mediated factor detectable in population but not individual data. Despite limitations related to death certificate data, the results contribute important information to the formulation of several hypotheses: (a) disease classifications based on anatomic or etiologic criteria fail to account for social determinants; (b) social forces produce demographically and possibly geographically distinct population-based disease constellations; and (c) the individual components of population-based disease constellations (e.g., lung cancer) are phenotypically comparable from one population to another but genotypically different, in part, because of socially mediated epigenetic variations. Additional research may produce new taxonomies that unify social determinants with anatomic and/or etiologic determinants. This may lead to improved medical management of individuals and populations

Medical causes of admissions to hospital among adults in Africa: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Despite the publication of several studies on the subject, there is significant uncertainty regarding the burden of disease among adults in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). OBJECTIVES: To describe the breadth of available data regarding causes of admission to hospital, to systematically analyze the methodological quality of these studies, and to provide recommendations for future research. DESIGN: We performed a systematic online and hand-based search for articles describing patterns of medical illnesses in patients admitted to hospitals in sSA between 1950 and 2010. Diseases were grouped into bodily systems using International Classification of Disease (ICD) guidelines. We compared the proportions of admissions and deaths by diagnostic category using χ2. RESULTS: Thirty articles, describing 86,307 admissions and 9,695 deaths, met the inclusion criteria. The leading causes of admission were infectious and parasitic diseases (19.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 19.6-20.1), respiratory (16.2%, 95% CI 16.0-16.5) and circulatory (11.3%, 95% CI 11.1-11.5) illnesses. The leading causes of death were infectious and parasitic (17.1%, 95% CI 16.4-17.9), circulatory (16%, 95% CI 15.3-16.8) and digestive (16.2%, 95% CI 15.4-16.9). Circulatory diseases increased from 3.9% of all admissions in 1950-59 to 19.9% in 2000-2010 (RR 5.1, 95% CI 4.5-5.8, test for trend p<0.00005). The most prevalent methodological deficiencies, present in two-thirds of studies, were failures to use standardized case definitions and ICD guidelines for classifying illnesses. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular and infectious diseases are currently the leading causes of admissions and in-hospital deaths in sSA. Methodological deficiencies have limited the usefulness of previous studies in defining national patterns of disease in adults. As African countries pass through demographic and health transition, they need to significantly invest in clinical research capacity to provide an accurate description of the disease burden among adults for public health policy

Lack of validity of self-reported mammography data

This qualitative literature review aimed to describe the totality of peer-reviewed scientific evidence from 1990 to 2017 concerning validity of self-reported mammography. This review included articles about mammography containing the words accuracy, validity, specificity, sensitivity, reliability or reproducibility; titles containing self-report, recall or patient reports, and breast or ‘mammo’; and references of identified citations focusing on evaluation of 2-year self-reports. Of 45 publications meeting the eligibility criteria, 2 conducted in 1993 and 1995 at health maintenance organisations in Western USA which primarily served highly educated whites provided support for self-reports of mammography over 2 years. Methodological concerns about validity of self-reports included (1) telescoping, (2) biased overestimates particularly among black women, (3) failure to distinguish screening and diagnostic mammography, and (4) failure to address episodic versus consistent mammography use. The current totality of evidence supports the need for research to reconsider the validity of self-reported mammography data as well as the feasibility of alternative surveillance data sources to achieve the goals of the Healthy People Initiative

A Corpus of Potentially Contradictory Research Claims from Cardiovascular Research Abstracts

Background: Research literature in biomedicine and related fields contains a huge number of claims, such as the effectiveness of treatments. These claims are not always consistent and may even contradict each other. Being able to identify contradictory claims is important for those who rely on the biomedical literature. Automated methods to identify and resolve them are required to cope with the amount of information available. However, research in this area has been hampered by a lack of suitable resources. We describe a methodology to develop a corpus which addresses this gap by providing examples of potentially contradictory claims and demonstrate how it can be applied to identify these claims from Medline abstracts related to the topic of cardiovascular disease. Methods A set of systematic reviews concerned with four topics in cardiovascular disease were identified from Medline and analysed to determine whether the abstracts they reviewed contained contradictory research claims. For each review, annotators were asked to analyse these abstracts to identify claims within them that answered the question addressed in the review. The annotators were also asked to indicate how the claim related to that question and the type of the claim. Results: A total of 259 abstracts associated with 24 systematic reviews were used to form the corpus. Agreement between the annotators was high, suggesting that the information they provided is reliable. Conclusions: The paper describes a methodology for constructing a corpus containing contradictory research claims from the biomedical literature. The corpus is made available to enable further research into this area and support the development of automated approaches to contradiction identification

Species richness declines and biotic homogenization have slowed down for NW-European pollinators and plants

Concern about biodiversity loss has led to increased public investment in conservation. Whereas there is a widespread perception that such initiatives have been unsuccessful, there are few quantitative tests of this perception. Here, we evaluate whether rates of biodiversity change have altered in recent decades in three European countries (Great Britain, Netherlands and Belgium) for plants and flower visiting insects. We compared four 20-year periods, comparing periods of rapid land-use intensification and natural habitat loss (1930–1990) with a period of increased conservation investment (post-1990). We found that extensive species richness loss and biotic homogenisation occurred before 1990, whereas these negative trends became substantially less accentuated during recent decades, being partially reversed for certain taxa (e.g. bees in Great Britain and Netherlands). These results highlight the potential to maintain or even restore current species assemblages (which despite past extinctions are still of great conservation value), at least in regions where large-scale land-use intensification and natural habitat loss has ceased