The wildland-urban interface in Poland reflects legacies of historical national borders

Context The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is an area where houses are located near wildland vegetation. As such, the WUI is a focal area of wildfire risk, human-wildlife conflicts, and other human-nature interactions. Although there is a wide consensus on the impact WUI existence might have, little is known about the WUI spatial determinants over long periods, especially in countries with long settlement history. Objectives Our goal here was to map the WUI across Poland, and to quantify the extent to which historical legacies shape current WUI pattern, since Poland is one of the countries, which experienced substantial political changes over time, which had an impact on historical settlement development. Methods We analysed a database of nearly 15 million building locations and a 10-m Sentinel-2-based land cover map to produce a country-wide WUI map of Poland. Then we compared the WUI pattern among parts of Poland which belonged to different political entities in 1900s and 1930s and also among different ecoregions. Lastly, we verified the effects of the historical borders or landscape units borders on WUI patterns with a discontinuity analysis. Results We found that a substantial part of Poland is WUI, and over 60% of all buildings are in WUI. However, WUI patterns differ considerably across the country, and WUI hotspots are located around the largest metropolitan areas in central and southern part of Poland and in the Carpathians. Furthermore, WUI patterns reflect pre-1945 national borders indicating long-term legacies of past settlement patterns and urban planning approaches. Diversity among ecoregions was much less pronounced than among past political entities. Conclusions Our work shows that current WUI pattern is to large extent shaped by former political conditions, which is likely true not only in Poland, but also in many parts of Europe and elsewhere where settlement history goes back centuries

Key Areas For Conserving United States\u27 Biodiversity Likely Threatened By Future Land Use Change

A major challenge for biodiversity conservation is to mitigate the effects of future environmental change, such as land use, in important areas for biodiversity conservation. In the United States, recent conservation efforts by The Nature Conservancy and partners have identified and mapped the nation\u27s Areas of Biodiversity Significance (ABS), representing the best remaining habitats for the full diversity of native species and ecosystems, and thus the most important and suitable areas for the conservation of native biodiversity. Our goal was to understand the potential consequences of future land use changes on the nation\u27s ABS, and identify regions where ABS are likely to be threatened due to future land use expansion. For this, we used an econometric-based model to forecast land use changes between 2001 and 2051 across the conterminous U. S. under alternative scenarios of future land use change. Our model predicted a total of similar to 100,000 to 160,000 km(2) of natural habitats within ABS replaced by urban, crop and pasture expansion depending on the scenario (5% to 8% habitat loss across the conterminous U.S.), with some regions experiencing up to 30% habitat loss. The majority of the most threatened ABS were located in the Eastern half of the country. Results for our different scenarios were generally fairly consistent, but some regions exhibited notable difference from the baseline under specific policies and changes in commodity prices. Overall, our study suggests that key areas for conserving United States\u27 biodiversity are likely threatened by future land use change, and efforts trying to preserve the ecological and conservation values of ABS will need to address the potential intensification of human land uses

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and \u3e10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the U.S.

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous U.S. to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared to a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover, natural landscapes, and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.Keywords: econometric model, land-use change, ecosystem services, food production, biodiversity, timber, carbonThis is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by [publisher] and can be found at: http://www.pnas.org/

The Choice between Formal and Informal Intellectual Property: A Review

We survey the economic literature, both theoretical and empirical, on the choice of intellectual property protection by firms. Our focus is on the trade-offs between using patents and disclosing versus the use of secrecy, although we also look briefly at the use of other means of formal intellectual property protection. (JEL D82, K11, O31, O34) </jats:p

Ultra-rare genetic variation in common epilepsies: a case-control sequencing study

BACKGROUND:Despite progress in understanding the genetics of rare epilepsies, the more common epilepsies have proven less amenable to traditional gene-discovery analyses. We aimed to assess the contribution of ultra-rare genetic variation to common epilepsies. METHODS:We did a case-control sequencing study with exome sequence data from unrelated individuals clinically evaluated for one of the two most common epilepsy syndromes: familial genetic generalised epilepsy, or familial or sporadic non-acquired focal epilepsy. Individuals of any age were recruited between Nov 26, 2007, and Aug 2, 2013, through the multicentre Epilepsy Phenome/Genome Project and Epi4K collaborations, and samples were sequenced at the Institute for Genomic Medicine (New York, USA) between Feb 6, 2013, and Aug 18, 2015. To identify epilepsy risk signals, we tested all protein-coding genes for an excess of ultra-rare genetic variation among the cases, compared with control samples with no known epilepsy or epilepsy comorbidity sequenced through unrelated studies. FINDINGS:We separately compared the sequence data from 640 individuals with familial genetic generalised epilepsy and 525 individuals with familial non-acquired focal epilepsy to the same group of 3877 controls, and found significantly higher rates of ultra-rare deleterious variation in genes established as causative for dominant epilepsy disorders (familial genetic generalised epilepsy: odd ratio [OR] 2·3, 95% CI 1·7-3·2, p=9·1 × 10-8; familial non-acquired focal epilepsy 3·6, 2·7-4·9, p=1·1 × 10-17). Comparison of an additional cohort of 662 individuals with sporadic non-acquired focal epilepsy to controls did not identify study-wide significant signals. For the individuals with familial non-acquired focal epilepsy, we found that five known epilepsy genes ranked as the top five genes enriched for ultra-rare deleterious variation. After accounting for the control carrier rate, we estimate that these five genes contribute to the risk of epilepsy in approximately 8% of individuals with familial non-acquired focal epilepsy. Our analyses showed that no individual gene was significantly associated with familial genetic generalised epilepsy; however, known epilepsy genes had lower p values relative to the rest of the protein-coding genes (p=5·8 × 10-8) that were lower than expected from a random sampling of genes. INTERPRETATION:We identified excess ultra-rare variation in known epilepsy genes, which establishes a clear connection between the genetics of common and rare, severe epilepsies, and shows that the variants responsible for epilepsy risk are exceptionally rare in the general population. Our results suggest that the emerging paradigm of targeting of treatments to the genetic cause in rare devastating epilepsies might also extend to a proportion of common epilepsies. These findings might allow clinicians to broadly explain the cause of these syndromes to patients, and lay the foundation for possible precision treatments in the future. FUNDING:National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS), and Epilepsy Research UK

Data from: Prioritizing land management efforts at a landscape scale: a case study using prescribed fire in Wisconsin

One challenge in the effort to conserve biodiversity is identifying where to prioritize resources for active land management. Cost-benefit analyses have been used successfully as a conservation tool to identify sites that provide the greatest conservation benefit per unit cost. Our goal was to apply cost-benefit analysis to the question of how to prioritize land management efforts, in our case the application of prescribed fire to natural landscapes in Wisconsin, USA. We quantified and mapped frequently burned communities, and prioritized management units based on a suite of indices that captured ecological benefits, management effort, and the feasibility of successful long-term management actions. Data for these indices came from LANDFIRE, Wisconsin's Wildlife Action Plan, and a nationwide Wildland Urban Interface assessment. We found that the majority of frequently burned vegetation types occurred in the southern portion of the state. However, the highest-priority areas for applying prescribed fire occurred in the central, northwest, and northeast portion of the state where frequently burned vegetation patches were larger and where identified areas of high biological importance area occurred. Although our focus was on the use of prescribed fire in Wisconsin, our methods can be adapted to prioritize other land management activities. Such prioritization is necessary to achieve the greatest possible benefits from limited funding for land management actions, and our results show that it is feasible at scales that are relevant for land management decisions

Changes in the extent of surface mining and reclamation in the Central Appalachians detected using a 1976-2006 Landsat time series

Surface mining and reclamation is the dominant driver of land cover land use change (LCLUC) in the Central Appalachian Mountain region of the Eastern U.S. Accurate quantification of the extent of mining activities is important for assessing how this LCLUC affects ecosystem services such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and mitigation of flooding. We used Landsat imagery from 1976, 1987, 1999 and 2006 to map the extent of surface mines and mine reclamation for eight large watersheds in the Central Appalachian region of West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. We employed standard image processing techniques in conjunction with a temporal decision tree and GIS maps of mine permits and wetlands to map active and reclaimed mines and track changes through time. For the entire study area, active surface mine extent was highest in 1976, prior to implementation of the Surface Mine Control and Reclamation Act in 1977, with 1.76% of the study area in active mines, declining to 0.44% in 2006. The most extensively mined watershed, Georges Creek in Maryland, was 5.45% active mines in 1976, declining to 1.83% in 2006. For the entire study area, the area of reclaimed mines increased from 1.35% to 4.99% from 1976 to 2006, and from 4.71% to 15.42% in Georges Creek. Land cover conversion to mines and then reclaimed mines after 1976 was almost exclusively from forest. Accuracy levels for mined and reclaimed cover was above 85% for all time periods, and was generally above 80% for mapping active and reclaimed mines separately, especially for the later time periods in which good accuracy assessment data were available. Among other implications, the mapped patterns of LCLUC are likely to significantly affect watershed hydrology, as mined and reclaimed areas have lower infiltration capacity and thus more rapid runoff than unmined forest watersheds, leading to greater potential for extreme flooding during heavy rainfall events