Drivers and future of the fertility decline in the 2010s : an analysis of Finland and other Nordic countries

The Nordic countries have maintained relatively high and stable cohort fertility over the past three decades, which has inspired fertility theories and cemented the idea that the generous welfare system of these countries promotes fertility. However, the narrative changed in the 2010s, as these countries’ total fertility rates (TFR) declined strongly and reached all-time low levels. These declines were unexpected, remain poorly understood, and challenge the understanding of fertility patterns in the developed world. It remains unclear how this fertility decline relates to fertility timing, union patterns and the field of study – all of which are important factors in explaining fertility patterns that could generally help illuminate the mechanisms behind the decline. This thesis analysed fertility dynamics in Finland and the other Nordic countries, focusing particularly on the decrease in period fertility in the 2010s and its consequences for completed cohort fertility by using existing methods and developing a new forecasting approach. The study used harmonized data across the Nordic countries from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) to compare age, parity, tempo, and quantum drivers of the declines, and register data from Statistics Finland both to assess the importance of changes in union patterns for the fertility decline and to identify variation in fertility declines by field of education. Decomposition of the period fertility decline between 2010 and 2018 showed that a fall in fertility occurred at nearly all ages below 40, and that the decline in first births contributed the most to the overall decline in fertility among all Nordic countries. The fertility decline in the age group 30–39 is a departure from the long-term trend of increasing fertility, suggesting that not only fertility postponement is driving the fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR and cohort fertility forecasts both indicate that quantum change is part of the decline. The forecasts indicated that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 2 children to around 1.8 children on average for late 1980s cohorts. Here, Finland diverges from the other Nordic countries, as its expected cohort fertility is much lower (below 1.6). In turn, Sweden and Demark are on a trajectory of weaker declines than those observed in Finland, Norway, and Iceland. The new non-parametric approach that was developed in this study assessed potential recuperation patterns and yielded the weakest declines of all methods; nevertheless, it still showed that, particularly in Finland, Norway and Iceland, cohort fertility is likely to decline even if higher age fertility were to begin to increase. Using an incidence-based multistate Markov model, trends in age-specific transition probabilities across states of single life, cohabitation, marriage, and first birth among childless men and women showed that after 2010, first-childbearing decreased in unions, more (cohabiting) unions were dissolved, and marriage and cohabitation formation decreased. Counterfactual simulations revealed that the decline in fertility within unions mattered more (three-quarter) than changes in union dynamics (one-quarter) for the total decline in first births. First births declined more strongly across the lower social strata, but, across all strata, decreasing first-childbearing in unions explained most of the total decline. Trends in total fertility and first births in the 2010s across 153 fields of education showed diverging patterns in the already prevailing large differences between fields of education. Weaker declines (around -20% and less) were typically observed in fields with initially higher levels (health and teaching) and stronger declines (around -40% and more) in fields with initially lower levels (ICT, arts and humanities). Regression analyses indicated that the strength of the declines was associated with characteristics reflecting uncertainty (higher unemployment, lower income, and a lower share of work in the public sector) within the fields – together, these uncertainty measures explained one fourth of the decline in TFR and two fifths of the decline in first births. The findings highlight the need to revise the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility. The decline in the 2010s was primarily accounted for by childless couples postponing or forgoing childbearing rather than by parents having smaller families. New theories increasingly highlight the role of perceived uncertainty in explaining fertility changes in the 2010s, but the findings from this study indicate that objective uncertainty also seems to be fuelling the fertility decline.De nordiska länderna har upprätthållit en relativt hög och stabil kohortbaserad fruktsamhet under de senaste tre decennierna. Detta har inspirerat aktuella fruktsamhetsteorier samt befäst idén att dessa länders generösa välfärdssystem främjar fruktsamheten. Narrativet förändrades emellertid under 2010-talet då den periodbaserade fruktsamheten i dessa länder sjönk kraftigt och nådde rekordlåga nivåer. Den här nedgången skedde oväntat, den är fortfarande bristfälligt förstådd, och den utmanar förståelsen av fruktsamhetsmönstren i industriländerna. Det är fortfarande oklart huruvida den sjunkande fruktsamheten är en följd av uppskjutet barnafödande till högre åldrar eller möjliga förändringar i parbildning och separationer, samt huruvida fruktsamheten sjunkit i varierande grad bland olika studieområden. Alla dessa är viktiga faktorer för att förklara fruktsamhetsmönster och skulle generellt kunna öka förståelsen för de mekanismer som ligger bakom nedgången i fruktsamheten. Denna avhandling analyserade fruktsamhetsdynamiken i Finland och de andra nordiska länderna med ett särskilt fokus på den sjunkande periodbaserade fruktsamheten på 2010-talet och dess konsekvenser för den slutgiltiga kohortbaserade fruktsamheten med hjälp av befintliga metoder samt genom att utveckla en ny prognosmetod. Studien använde data från de nordiska länderna från HFD-databasen för att jämföra minskningen enligt demografiska faktorer (ålder, födelseordning, tidpunkt för barnafödande och faktiska mängden barnafödande). Registerdata från Statistikcentralen användes för att bedöma betydelsen av förändringar i parförhållanden för att förklara fruktsamhetsnedgången och för att identifiera variationer i intensiteten av fruktsamhetsnedgången bland olika utbildningsområden. Uppspjälkningen av den periodbaserade fruktsamhetsnedgången mellan 2010 och 2018 visade att nedgången inträffade i nästan alla åldrar under 40 och att minskningen i förstabarnsfödslar förklarade den störta delen av den totala nedgången i alla nordiska länder. Fruktsamhetsnedgången i åldersgruppen 30–39 är en avvikning från den flera decennier långa uppåtgående trenden och tyder på att det inte är enbart uppskjutet barnafödande till högre åldrar som driver den sjunkande fruktsamheten. Både tempojusteringar av det summerade fruktsamhetstalet och prognoser för den slutgiltiga kohortbaserade fruktsamheten indikerar att även den faktiska mängden barnafödande minskar. Enligt prognoserna kommer den kohortbaserade fruktsamheten sannolikt att sjunka från den långvariga nivån omkring 2 barn till omkring 1.8 barn i medeltal för kohorter födda i slutet av 1980-talet. Finland avviker från de andra länderna, eftersom dess förväntade kohortbaserade fruktsamhet är mycket lägre (under 1.6). Sverige och Danmark bildar också en klass för sig med mildare nedgångar än de som förväntas i Finland, Norge och Island. Den nya icke-parametriska metoden som utvecklades i denna studie estimerade potentiella återhämtningsmönster och resulterade i de svagaste nedgångarna av alla prognosmetoder, men visade ändå att särskilt i Finland, Norge och Island kommer den kohortbaserade fruktsamheten sannolikt att sjunka även om fruktsamheten i äldre åldrar skulle stiga. Med hjälp av en incidensbaserad flertillstånds Markovmodell visade trender i åldersspecifika övergångssannolikheter mellan tillstånden singel, samboskap, äktenskap och det första barnets födelse bland barnlösa män och kvinnor att efter år 2010 minskade det första barnets födelse bland samboende och gifta par, flera samboskap upplöstes, och färre sambo- och äktenskap ingicks. Kontrafaktiska simuleringar visade att nedgången i fruktsamheten i sambo- och äktenskap hade större betydelse (tre fjärdedelar) än förändringar i parbildning och separationer (en fjärdedel) för den totala nedgången i antalet förstabarnsfödslar. Förstabarnsfödslar minskade kraftigare i de lägre sociala skikten, men i alla sociala skikt förklarade minskade förstabarnsfödslar i sambo- och/eller äktenskap majoriteten av den totala nedgången. Trender i den summerade fruktsamheten och i förstabarnsfödslar under 2010-talet bland 153 utbildningsområden visade divergerande mönster i de betydande skillnaderna som redan råder mellan studieområdena. Svagare nedgångar (cirka -20 % och mindre) observerades generellt inom områden med initialt högre fruktsamhetsnivåer (hälsa och undervisning) och kraftigare nedgångar (runt -40 % och mer) inom områden med initialt lägre fruktsamhetsnivåer (IKT, konst och humaniora). Regressionsanalyser visade att styrkan i nedgångarna var associerad med egenskaper som speglar osäkerhet (högre arbetslöshet, lägre inkomst och lägre andel som arbetar inom den offentliga sektorn) inom utbildningsområdena – tillsammans förklarade dessa osäkerhetsmått en fjärdedel av nedgången i det summerade fruktsamhetstalet, och två femtedelar av nedgången i förstabarnsfödslar. Resultaten lyfter fram behovet av att uppdatera konceptualiseringen av den nordiska modellen med relativt hög och stabil kohortbaserad fruktsamhet. Nedgången under 2010-talet förklaras främst av att barnlösa par skjuter upp eller avstår familjebildning snarare än att föräldrar får färre barn. Nya teorier lyfter alltmer fram upplevd osäkerhet som en förklaring till nedgången i fruktsamheten under 2010-talet, men resultaten från denna studie indikerar att även objektiv osäkerhet verkar trigga den sjunkande fruktsamheten

All-time low period fertility in Finland : tempo or quantum effect?

The decreasing number of births has caused concerns among researchers and decision-makers and is currently a hot topic in Finland. The most commonly used fertility index, the total fertility rate (TFR), has been rapidly decreasing during the last seven years and reached an all-time low rate of 1.49 children per woman in 2017. The total fertility rate is a synthetic measure that is sensitive to changes in the timing of births and it does not necessarily reflect underlying changes in the level of fertility. A reduction in the total fertility rate could reflect that women are postponing their childbearing while the final number of children they ultimately will have remains unchanged, or, it could reflect that women actually are having less children. The aim with this thesis is to conclude to what extent the decrease in the total fertility rate is due to fertility timing and whether the expressed concern is truly valid. This thesis is a descriptive study produced in collaboration with Statistics Finland. Age-specific fertility rates were calculated by birth order, region and level of education based on data maintained by Statistics Finland. The produced contributions to the decrease in the total fertility rate were analysed by demographic decomposition, tempo-adjusted fertility rates were calculated to adjust for fertility timing and the completed cohort fertility rate for cohorts not yet reached age 44 was estimated mainly by a new Bayesian forecasting method. In addition, high quality fertility data from the Human Fertility Database was used to build a prior belief of already known demographic information about plausible age patterns of fertility. The results confirmed that the main reason for the rapid decrease in the total fertility rate in 2010-2017 was decreasing first order births mainly at ages 25-29. The massive decrease in first order births was observed in both urban and rural areas and by all levels of education, but particularly for higher educated women. Overall, fertility rates at younger ages have experienced a long-term decline while fertility rates at older ages have been increasing. Nevertheless, the fertility rates at ages 30-37 have in recent years also started to decrease. The tempo-adjusted TFR did show a period tempo effect of on average 0.17 live births per woman, but since the adjusted TFR also did decrease since 2010, the possibility that women only postpone but not reduce their number of births is not enough as the only explanation to the all-time low period fertility observed. The cohort fertility forecasts did in fact confirm that women actually are reducing their lifetime number of children. Women currently in their childbearing age have delayed or even eschewed entry to motherhood to such an extent that their average lifetime number of children is very unlikely to remain close to 2 children, which has been the approximately constant level observed over the last thirty years. The completed cohort fertility rate is instead likely to decline dramatically and fall below 1.50 children for women currently in their late 20s. Thus, the decrease in the total fertility rate in 2010-2017 does reflect a massive cohort quantum effect and the expressed concern about the decreasing number of births is indeed very much valid

Interaction between dietary factors and genetic risk for lipoprotein traits and cardiovascular disease

In previous studies, a high quality diet has been associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to a low diet quality, and specific “healthy” diet components, such as polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), have been hypothesized to reduce the risk of CVD. However, results from epidemiological studies have been conflicting. This may be due to individuals having varied genetic profiles that are differentially associated with CVD. In genome-wide association studies (GWAS), genetic variations in the fatty acid desaturase gene (FADS1), which encodes the FADS1 enzyme, have been associated with blood lipid and cholesterol concentrations, enzyme activity and concentrations of long-chain PUFAs. The aim of this doctoral thesis was to examine the interaction between a common genetic variant of FADS1 and the intake of dietary fatty acids with respect to cholesterol concentrations and CVD risk. We also examined whether an overall genetic risk for dyslipidemia can be modified by diet quality and whether diet quality can increase the risk of dyslipidemia and CVD. We used the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer study (n=28,098, 61% women) that included baseline examinations that were conducted between 1991 and 1996. The participants' dietary intakes, lifestyle factors, and body compositions were examined, and blood samples were taken. A diet quality index based on the Swedish nutrition recommendations was used to assess diet quality. Incident cases of CVD were identified from registers. Our results showed that intake of long-chain omega-3 (ω-3) PUFAs can modify the associated effects of FADS1 genetic variations on LDL-C concentrations. The association between FADS1 and reduced LDL-C was observed only among participants who had the lowest intakes of long-chain ω-3 PUFAs. However, genetic variations in FADS1 had little effect on the association between dietary PUFA intake and CVD risk. We also observed that a high quality diet that reflects the Swedish nutrition recommendations might attenuate the association between genetic risk for high LDL-C and increased risk of ischemic stroke compared to a low quality diet. Furthermore, the risk of developing dyslipidemia over 16 years of follow-up was lower in participants who consumed higher quality diets than those who consumed lower quality diets. In conclusion, our results suggest that it is important to consider gene-diet interactions to understand the etiology of CVD

The Baltic states and tourism development

Not listed

Flotation applied to Joplin sludge

The sludge (fine material) which daily is being sent to the tailing dump by the Joplin mills contains values in lead and zinc often in excess, as to percentage, of that of the crude ore. At present no attempt is being made to treat this It is at this point that it is proposed to introduce some flotation process to supplement the ordinary scheme of wet concentration. With this end in view we have conducted a series of experiments in the flotation of a Joplin sludge --page 2-3

Tentacular Classrooms: Feminist Transformative Learning for Thinking and Sensing

Integrative transformative learning in a feminist perspective asks students to engage in potentially troublesome and unsettling debates, to confront their own privilege and situated knowledges, and to experiment with conventional boundaries for knowledge production. We introduce the idea of the “tentacular classroom” grounded in the work of Haraway on tentacular thinking to show the ways in which the learning encounter, figured as a tentacular organism, allows for co-production and multiplicity in knowledge production. Through two illustrative examples from gender studies classrooms, we show what is at stake when unruly tentacles become involved in disrupting the boundedness imposed on teaching and learning in the neo-liberal university context. We conclude that a tentacular classroom entails confrontations with troublesome knowledges but also with troublesome unlearning as well, leading teachers and learners to an alternative point of departure for the learning encounter.publishedVersio

Grazing or mowing in semi-natural grasslands : factors that affect species composition

Naturbetesmarker är bland de habitat som innehåller flest kärlväxter i världen. Många av de arter som lever i denna typ av mark har blivit sällsynta och hotade. För att bevara dessa artrika naturbetesmarker krävs kunskap om hur växter påverkas av olika typer av skötselmetoder, eftersom just skötseln är en av de faktorer som inverkar mest på artrikedomen. I denna litteraturuppsats kommer jag jämföra hur slåtter och bete, som är de två vanligaste skötselmetoderna av naturbetesmark i världen, påverkar kärlväxter. Syftet är att väga dessa mot varandra och ge en bild av hur forskningsläget ser ut idag. Skillnaden på bete, jämfört med slåtter, är att bete ofta pågår under en längre tid, sker tidigare på säsongen, inte är lika förutsägbar och mer selektiv. Växter anpassar sig ständigt till rådande förhållanden på platsen där de lever. Detta gör att växterna som trivs i slåttermarken inte alltid är de samma som trivs i betesmarken. T.ex. har växter i betesmarken utvecklat egenskaper som gör att de lättare klarar av att växa i betesmarken, där de riskerar att bli betade. För att kunna bedöma vilken skötselmetod som är mest lämpad på en plats behövs därför information om tidigare skötselmetod. Det har visat sig att etableringen av fröplantor är den mest begränsande faktorn för lyckad sexuell reproduktion. Bete gynnar etableringen direkt genom bildandet av luckor i vegetationen som uppkommer av djurens; tramp, dynga, urin, men även det faktum att djuren betar ojämnt. Slåtter gynnar etableringen indirekt genom att slåtter ofta sker senare på säsongen, oftast efter att växterna har fröat av sig. En annan faktor som också måste tas hänsyn till är rådande miljöförhållanden. Det har tagits fram ett schema för att snabbt kunna bedöma betesintensitet i betes-marker, som i stor utsträckning påverkas av miljöfaktorer. Genom att granska marken i tre steg kan lantbrukaren få ett snabbt svar på om det är ett lagom antal betesdjur i naturbetesmarken. Steg ett är att bedöma hur mycket reproduktiva delar (blommor och frukter) och obetade partier som finns. Steg två är att ta reda på om betet fortsätter året ut eller tar slut i augusti. Steg tre är att undersöka miljöförhållandena på platsen. I denna uppsats har jag valt att undersöka Primula veris (gullviva), Serratula tinctoria (ängsskära), Rhinanthus minor (äkta ängsskallra) och Gentianella campestris (fältgentiana) ekologiska krav djupare. Gemensamt för dessa växter är att de gynnas av att hinna fröa av sig innan slåttern eller betet sker och att förnalagret inte blir så tjockt att fröna inte kan gro. Dock fröar de av sig vid olika tidpunkter och trivs vid olika tjockt förnalager. Genom att använda en indikatorväxt, exempelvis Campanula rotundifolia (Blåklocka), som snabbt svarar på ändrade miljöförhållanden, ökar chansen att tidigt upptäcka om en skötselmetod passar på platsen.Semi natural grasslands are among the habitats that contains the most vascular plants in the world. Many of the species that are adapted to this type of environment are rare and threatened. To preserve these diverse semi natural grasslands we need knowledge about how these plants are affected by different types of management methods, because the management methods are one of the factors that affect the diversity most. In this literature study I will compare how mowing and grazing, which are the most common management methods of semi natural grasslands in the world, affect the vascular plants. The purpose of this study is to weigh these methods against each other and give a picture where the research is today. The difference between grazing compared with mowing is that grazing is often going for longer periods, happens earlier in the season, and is less predictable and more selective. Plants are constantly adapting to the environment of their surroundings. This means that plant species which thrive in the meadow not always are the same as the species that thrive in the pasture, e.g. plant species found in pastures typically show adaptations to grazing. In order to know which management method is the most suitable for particular grassland we need historical data about the management methods. It has been shown that the establishment of seedlings is the most limiting factor for successful sexual reproduction. Seedling establishment benefits from grazing di-rectly through the formation of gaps in the vegetation, as a result of animal trampling, dung or urine, but also from the fact that the animal graze unevenly. Mowing benefits seedling establishment indirectly as mowing occurs later in the season, usually after the plants have released their seeds. Other important factors are the prevailing environmental conditions. This is especially important when considering which grazing intensity is the most beneficial. A schedule for quick determination of the optimal grazing intensity in pastures has been developed. The optimal number of grazing animals could be estimated in three steps: Step one is to determine how large the areas with an abundance of plant re-productive parts (i.e. flowers and fruits) are, and how large the ungrazed areas are. Step two is to find out if the grazing continues the year round or if it ends in August. Step three is to check the environmental conditions on the site. In this study I have decided to investigate the ecological demands of Primula veris (cowslip), Serratula tinctoria (saw-wort), Rhinanthus minor (yellow rattle) and Gentianella campestris (field gentian) in greater depth. These species are all favored by being able to release their seeds before the mowing and grazing occur, however, the time of the year at which seed dispersal occurs differs between the species. Also, the litter layer must not be too thick, or seedling establishment of these species will be very low, although, the amount of litter tolerated varies between the species. In order to determine if the management method used at a site is suitable an indicator species that is quick to respond to changes in the environmental conditions should be used, e.g Campanula rotundifolia (harebell)

Mer än bara naturvärden?

The purpose of this report is to study variables affecting the value of forest land in general, and the affect from woodland key habitats in particular. To guidance the consultants on NAI Svefa in forest property valuation a study of the affect from woodland key habitats on forest land prices were done. The survey is based on selling statistics from the forest property market in Sweden. By doing a linear regression analysis and a hypothesis testing the study aimed to see if a woodland key habitat had any effect on the forest property price. The conclusion from these tests is that there is no such impact on the pricing. Property valuation is a complex issue. There are too many affecting variables to get a significant result on the impact of one particular factor