Process-based modelling of Microbial community dynamics in the human colon

Acknowledgments We thank the Scottish Goverment’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) for funding this research. Funding Statement The Scottish Goverment’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Ser581 vices Division (RESAS) funded this researchPeer reviewedPostprin

microPop: modelling microbial populations and communities in R

We thank the Scottish Goverment’s Rural and Environment Science and Ana-lytical Services Division (RESAS) for funding this research. Also many thanks to Rafael Munoz-Tamayo for sharing his matlab code for the rumen modelPeer reviewedPostprin

Influence of soil temperature on Globodera rostochiensis and Globodera pallida

Relationships between soil temperatures and the potato cyst nematode (PCN) life cycle and population multiplication were investigated to understand the risks to potato crops from PCN in relation to increasing soil temperatures associated with climate change, and to support development of the United Kingdom Potato Council`s PCN management model. The initial (hatching) part of the PCN life cycle was examined for both Globodera rostochiensis and G. pallida over a range of temperatures, and the responses are then considered in relation to actual soil temperatures during the potato growing season in different sites in the United Kingdom. Hatching was stimulated by potato root diffusate over a temperature range from 5–29ºC and was monitored for 5 weeks. The greatest cumulative percentage hatch of second stage juveniles (J2) occurred between 15 and 27ºC for G. rostochiensis and 13–25ºC for G. pallida. Globodera rostochiensis hatched more quickly and had a delayed hatch at ≥25ºC while G. pallida was more efficient at these higher temperatures. From these observations, it is likely that climate change, and associated increases in soil temperatures, will result in increased rates and amounts of hatching for both species, leading to increased population levels on susceptible hosts and damage to potato crops. Currently, regions of the United Kingdom with warm soil temperatures are also expected to have high levels of hatching of PCN, and therefore greater multiplication resulting in greater challenges in the management of these nematodes in infested land

Detection and Plant Monitoring Programs: Lessons from an Intensive Survey of Asclepias meadii with Five Observers

A grant from the One-University Open Access Fund at the University of Kansas was used to defray the author’s publication fees in this Open Access journal. The Open Access Fund, administered by librarians from the KU, KU Law, and KUMC libraries, is made possible by contributions from the offices of KU Provost, KU Vice Chancellor for Research & Graduate Studies, and KUMC Vice Chancellor for Research. For more information about the Open Access Fund, please see http://library.kumc.edu/authors-fund.xml.Monitoring programs, where numbers of individuals are followed through time, are central to conservation. Although incomplete detection is expected with wildlife surveys, this topic is rarely considered with plants. However, if plants are missed in surveys, raw count data can lead to biased estimates of population abundance and vital rates. To illustrate, we had five independent observers survey patches of the rare plant Asclepias meadii at two prairie sites. We analyzed data with two mark-recapture approaches. Using the program CAPTURE, the estimated number of patches equaled the detected number for a burned site, but exceeded detected numbers by 28% for an unburned site. Analyses of detected patches using Huggins models revealed important effects of observer, patch state (flowering/nonflowering), and patch size (number of stems) on probabilities of detection. Although some results were expected (i.e. greater detection of flowering than nonflowering patches), the importance of our approach is the ability to quantify the magnitude of detection problems. We also evaluated the degree to which increased observer numbers improved detection: smaller groups (3–4 observers) generally found 90 – 99% of the patches found by all five people, but pairs of observers or single observers had high error and detection depended on which individuals were involved. We conclude that an intensive study at the start of a long-term monitoring study provides essential information about probabilities of detection and what factors cause plants to be missed. This information can guide development of monitoring programs

Value for Money in Social Care : The Role of Economic Evidence in the Guideline Development Process of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England. Journal of Long-Term Care

In England, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has been responsible for developing social care guidelines since 2012. Internationally, it is the first health technology assessment and guideline agency that specifically includes social care. As is the case for NICE’s clinical and public health guidance, social care guidelines comprise recommendations based on the best available evidence of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This paper provides an overview of how economic evidence is used within social care guideline development. Firstly, the paper describes the guideline development and quality assurance process, in addition to the roles and responsibilities of the technical team and guideline committee members. Secondly, the paper summarises how economic evidence is reviewed, generated, and used to inform recommendations, with examples given to highlight some of the challenges and opportunities that can be encountered. The paper culminates with proposals for the use of economic evidence in social care in England going forward and makes recommendations for further research in this area. The paper posits that guidelines are an important vehicle for supporting evidence-based practice in social care and that economic evidence is a critical kind of evidence to include. As economic evidence in social care becomes more widely available, it can be increasingly used to produce useful and accessible information for decision makers. Further research is needed to understand the impact of implementing economic evidence-based recommendations in social care practice

Challenges in microbial ecology: building predictive understanding of community function and dynamics.

The importance of microbial communities (MCs) cannot be overstated. MCs underpin the biogeochemical cycles of the earth's soil, oceans and the atmosphere, and perform ecosystem functions that impact plants, animals and humans. Yet our ability to predict and manage the function of these highly complex, dynamically changing communities is limited. Building predictive models that link MC composition to function is a key emerging challenge in microbial ecology. Here, we argue that addressing this challenge requires close coordination of experimental data collection and method development with mathematical model building. We discuss specific examples where model-experiment integration has already resulted in important insights into MC function and structure. We also highlight key research questions that still demand better integration of experiments and models. We argue that such integration is needed to achieve significant progress in our understanding of MC dynamics and function, and we make specific practical suggestions as to how this could be achieved

Modelling solute dispersion in natural channels using fuzzy exchanges

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:DXN057300 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Assessing uncertainty in models of the ocean carbon cycle

In this thesis I explore the effect of parameter uncertainty in ocean biogeochemical models on the calculation of carbon uptake by the ocean. The ocean currently absorbs around a quarter of the annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere [Scholes et al., 2009], slowing the increase in radiative forcing associated with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Ocean biogeochemical models have been developed to study the role of the ocean ecosystem in this process. Such models consist of a greatly simplified representation of the hugely complex ocean ecosystem. This simplification requires extensive parameterisation of the biological processes that convert inorganic carbon to and from organic carbon in the ocean. The HadOCC ocean biogeochemical model is a Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model that is used to represent the role of the ocean ecosystem in the global carbon cycle in the HadCM3 and FAMOUS GCMs. HadOCC uses twenty parameters to control the processes of biological growth, mortality, grazing and detrital sinking that control the uptake and cycling of carbon in the ocean ecosystem. These parameters represent highly complex and in some cases incompletely understood biological processes, and as a result are uncertain in value. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the HadOCC parameters that due to uncertainty in value have the greatest possible effect on the exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the ocean—the air-sea CO2 flux. These are found to be the parameters that control phytoplankton growth in the well lit surface ocean, the formation of carbonate by marine organisms and the sinking of biological detritus. The uncertainty in these parameters is found to cause changes to the air-sea CO2 flux calculated by the FAMOUS GCM. The initial effect of these changes is equivalent to the order of the error of current estimates of the net annual carbon uptake by the ocean (2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C y−1 [Gruber et al., 2009], 2.2 ± 0.5 Pg C y−1 [Denman et al., 2007]). This indicates that while the effect of ocean biogeochemical parameter uncertainty is non-negligible, it is within the bounds of the uncertainty of the total (inorganic and organic) ocean carbon system, and is considerably less than the uncertainty in the carbon uptake of the terrestrial biosphere [Houghton, 2007]. However, as the ocean plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and the regulation of the Earth’s climate, further understanding and better modelling of the role of the ocean ecosystem in the global carbon cycle and its reaction to anthropogenic climate forcing remains important.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo