Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?

Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a "dry region of the globe". For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6 % decade−1 to +0.2 to +0.9 % decade−1 (period changes for 1981–2010 averages relative to 1951–1980 are reduced to −1.32 to +0.97 % as opposed to +4.85 % in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1 % decade−1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?publishedVersio

Blood Flow and Glucose Metabolism in Stage IV Breast Cancer: Heterogeneity of Response During Chemotherapy

Objective: The purpose of the study was to compare early changes in blood flow (BF) and glucose metabolism (MRglu) in metastatic breast cancer lesions of patients treated with chemotherapy. Methods: Eleven women with stage IV cancer and lesions in breast, lymph nodes, liver, and bone were scanned before treatment and after the first course of chemotherapy. BF, distribution volume of water (Vd), MRglu/BF ratio, MRgluand its corresponding rate constants K1and k3were compared per tumor lesion before and during therapy. Results: At baseline, mean BF and MRgluvaried among different tumor lesions, but mean Vdwas comparable in all lesions. After one course of chemotherapy, mean MRgludecreased in all lesions. Mean BF decreased in breast and node lesions and increased in bone lesions. Vddecreased in breast and nodes, but did not change in bone lesions. The MRglu/BF ratio decreased in breast and bone lesions and increased in node lesions. In patients with multiple tumor lesions BF and MRgluresponse could be very heterogeneous, even within similar types of metastases. BF and MRgluincreased in lesions of patients who experienced early disease progression or showed no response during clinical follow-up. Conclusion: BF and MRgluchanges separately give unique information on different aspects of tumor response to chemotherapy. Changes in BF and MRgluparameters can be remarkably heterogeneous in patients with multiple lesions

Tumor Invasion of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium Is Accompanied by Strong Hemorrhage Promoted by TNF-α

BACKGROUND:Several facultative anaerobic bacteria with potential therapeutic abilities are known to preferentially colonize solid tumors after systemic administration. How they efficiently find and invade the tumors is still unclear. However, this is an important issue to be clarified when bacteria should be tailored for application in cancer therapy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We describe the initial events of colonization of an ectopic transplantable tumor by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium. Initially, after intravenous administration, bacteria were found in blood, spleen, and liver. Low numbers were also detected in tumors associated with blood vessels as could be observed by immunohistochemistry. A rapid increase of TNF-alpha in blood was observed at that time, in addition to other pro-inflammatory cytokines. This induced a tremendous influx of blood into the tumors by vascular disruption that could be visualized in H&E stainings and quantified by hemoglobin measurements of tumor homogenate. Most likely, together with the blood, bacteria were flushed into the tumor. In addition, blood influx was followed by necrosis formation, bacterial growth, and infiltration of neutrophilic granulocytes. Depletion of TNF-alpha retarded blood influx and delayed bacterial tumor-colonization. CONCLUSION:Our findings emphasize similarities between Gram-negative tumor-colonizing bacteria and tumor vascular disrupting agents and show the involvement of TNF-alpha in the initial phase of tumor-colonization by bacteria

Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models:Consistent Integration of Information from Geophysical and Geological Data throuh Combination of Probabilistic Inverse Problem Theory and Geostatistics

Neutrinos with energies above 1017 eV are detectable with the Surface Detector Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The identification is efficiently performed for neutrinos of all flavors interacting in the atmosphere at large zenith angles, as well as for Earth-skimming \u3c4 neutrinos with nearly tangential trajectories relative to the Earth. No neutrino candidates were found in 3c 14.7 years of data taken up to 31 August 2018. This leads to restrictive upper bounds on their flux. The 90% C.L. single-flavor limit to the diffuse flux of ultra-high-energy neutrinos with an E\u3bd-2 spectrum in the energy range 1.0 7 1017 eV -2.5 7 1019 eV is E2 dN\u3bd/dE\u3bd < 4.4 7 10-9 GeV cm-2 s-1 sr-1, placing strong constraints on several models of neutrino production at EeV energies and on the properties of the sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays

Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: pitfalls and their overcoming

Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. A widely used approach to quantify this phenomenon is standardizing temperature data relative to the local mean and variability of a reference period. Here we demonstrate that this conventional procedure leads to exaggerated estimates of increasing temperature variability and extremes. For example, the occurrence of ‘2-sigma extremes’ would be overestimated by 48.2% compared to a given reference period of 30 years with time-invariant simulated Gaussian data. This corresponds to an increase from a 2.0% to 2.9% probability of such events. We derive an analytical correction revealing that these artifacts prevail in recent studies. Our analyses lead to a revision of earlier reports [e.g. Huntingford et al., 2013]: For instance we show that there is no evidence for a recent increase in normalized temperature variability. In conclusion, we provide an analytical pathway to describe changes in variability and extremes in climate observations and model simulations