Information for decision making from imperfect national data: tracking major changes in health care use in Kenya using geostatistics

Background: most Ministries of Health across Africa invest substantial resources in some form of health management information system (HMIS) to coordinate the routine acquisition and compilation of monthly treatment and attendance records from health facilities nationwide. Despite the expense of these systems, poor data coverage means they are rarely, if ever, used to generate reliable evidence for decision makers. One critical weakness across Africa is the current lack of capacity to effectively monitor patterns of service use through time so that the impacts ofchanges in policy or service delivery can be evaluated. Here, we present a new approach that, for the first time, allows national changes in health service use during a time of major health policy change to be tracked reliably using imperfect data from a national HMIS.Methods: monthly attendance records were obtained from the Kenyan HMIS for 1 271 government-run and 402 faith-based outpatient facilities nationwide between 1996 and 2004. Aspace-time geostatistical model was used to compensate for the large proportion of missing records caused by non-reporting health facilities, allowing robust estimation of monthly and annualuse of services by outpatients during this period.Results: we were able to reconstruct robust time series of mean levels of outpatient utilisation of health facilities at the national level and for all six major provinces in Kenya. These plots revealed reliably for the first time a period of steady nationwide decline in the use of health facilities in Kenyabetween 1996 and 2002, followed by a dramatic increase from 2003. This pattern was consistent across different causes of attendance and was observed independently in each province.Conclusion: the methodological approach presented can compensate for missing records in health information systems to provide robust estimates of national patterns of outpatient service use. This represents the first such use of HMIS data and contributes to the resurrection of these hugely expensive but underused systems as national monitoring tools. Applying this approach to Kenya has yielded output with immediate potential to enhance the capacity of decision makers in monitoring nationwide patterns of service use and assessing the impact of changes in health policy and service deliver

Nucleation of a sodium droplet on C60

We investigate theoretically the progressive coating of C60 by several sodium atoms. Density functional calculations using a nonlocal functional are performed for NaC60 and Na2C60 in various configurations. These data are used to construct an empirical atomistic model in order to treat larger sizes in a statistical and dynamical context. Fluctuating charges are incorporated to account for charge transfer between sodium and carbon atoms. By performing systematic global optimization in the size range 1<=n<=30, we find that Na_nC60 is homogeneously coated at small sizes, and that a growing droplet is formed above n=>8. The separate effects of single ionization and thermalization are also considered, as well as the changes due to a strong external electric field. The present results are discussed in the light of various experimental data.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Published online: 12 October 2021Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Damaris Kinyoki, Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Local Burden of Disease Anaemia Collaborators, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, and Simon I. Hay. (Local Burden of Disease Anaemia Collaborators: Lauren E. Schaeffer ...Muktar Beshir Ahmed ... Habtamu Abera Areri ... Dinesh Bhandari ... Tiffany K. Gill ... Jean Jacques Noubiap ... Andrew T. Olagunju ... et al.

The prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathology in old age: harmonisation of 12 measures across six community-based autopsy studies of dementia

Background: Population-based autopsy studies provide valuable insights into the causes of dementia but are limited by sample size and restriction to specific populations. Harmonisation across studies increases statistical power and allows meaningful comparisons between studies. We aimed to harmonise neuropathology measures across studies and assess the prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathologies in the ageing population. Methods: We combined data from six community-based autopsy cohorts in the US and the UK in a coordinated cross-sectional analysis. Among all decedents aged 80 years or older, we assessed 12 neuropathologies known to be associated with dementia: arteriolosclerosis, atherosclerosis, macroinfarcts, microinfarcts, lacunes, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, Braak neurofibrillary tangle stage, Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's disease (CERAD) diffuse plaque score, CERAD neuritic plaque score, hippocampal sclerosis, limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC), and Lewy body pathology. We divided measures into three groups describing level of confidence (low, moderate, and high) in harmonisation. We described the prevalence, correlations, and co-occurrence of neuropathologies. Findings: The cohorts included 4354 decedents aged 80 years or older with autopsy data. All cohorts included more women than men, with the exception of one study that only included men, and all cohorts included decedents at older ages (range of mean age at death across cohorts 88·0–91·6 years). Measures of Alzheimer's disease neuropathological change, Braak stage and CERAD scores, were in the high confidence category, whereas measures of vascular neuropathologies were in the low (arterioloscerosis, atherosclerosis, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and lacunes) or moderate (macroinfarcts and microinfarcts) categories. Neuropathology prevalence and co-occurrence was high (2443 [91%] of 2695 participants had more than one of six key neuropathologies and 1106 [41%] of 2695 had three or more). Co-occurrence was strongly but not deterministically associated with dementia status. Vascular and Alzheimer's disease features clustered separately in correlation analyses, and LATE-NC had moderate associations with Alzheimer's disease measures (eg, Braak stage ρ=0·31 [95% CI 0·20–0·42]). Interpretation: Higher variability and more inconsistency in the measurement of vascular neuropathologies compared with the measurement of Alzheimer's disease neuropathological change suggests the development of new frameworks for the measurement of vascular neuropathologies might be helpful. Results highlight the complexity and multi-morbidity of the brain pathologies that underlie dementia in older adults and suggest that prevention efforts and treatments should be multifaceted. Funding: Gates Ventures

A local space–time kriging approach applied to a national outpatient malaria data set

Increases in the availability of reliable health data are widely recognised as essential for efforts to strengthen health-care systems in resource-poor settings worldwide. Effective health-system planning requires comprehensive and up-to-date information on a range of health metrics and this requirement is generally addressed by a Health Management Information System (HMIS) that coordinates the routine collection of data at individual health facilities and their compilation into national databases. In many resource-poor settings, these systems are inadequate and national databases often contain only a small proportion of the expected records. In this paper, we take an important health metric in Kenya (the proportion of outpatient treatments for malaria (MP)) from the national HMIS database and predict the values of MP at facilities where monthly records are missing. The available MP data were densely distributed across a spatiotemporal domain and displayed second-order heterogeneity. We used three different kriging methodologies to make cross-validation predictions of MP in order to test the effect on prediction accuracy of (a) the extension of a spatial-only to a space–time prediction approach, and (b) the replacement of a globally stationary with a locally varying random function model. Space–time kriging was found to produce predictions with 98.4% less mean bias and 14.8% smaller mean imprecision than conventional spatial-only kriging. A modification of space–time kriging that allowed space–time variograms to be recalculated for every prediction location within a spatially local neighbourhood resulted in a larger decrease in mean imprecision over ordinary kriging (18.3%) although the mean bias was reduced less (87.5%)

The global burden of falls: Global, regional and national estimates of morbidity and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Falls can lead to severe health loss including death. Past research has shown that falls are an important cause of death and disability worldwide. The Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) provides a comprehensive assessment of morbidity and mortality from falls. Methods: Estimates for mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were produced for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 for all ages using the GBD 2017 framework. Distributions of the bodily injury (eg, hip fracture) were estimated using hospital records. Results: Globally, the age-standardised incidence of falls was 2238 (1990-2532) per 100 000 in 2017, representing a decline of 3.7% (7.4 to 0.3) from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised prevalence w

The global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions. Understanding these geographical differences is crucial for formulating effective strategies for preventing and treating IBD. We report the prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of IBD in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Methods We modelled mortality due to IBD using a standard Cause of Death Ensemble model including data mainly from vital registrations. To estimate the non-fatal burden, we used data presented in primary studies, hospital discharges, and claims data, and used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to ensure consistency between measures. Mortality, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated. All of the estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Findings In 2017, there were 6.8 million (95% UI 6.4-7.3) cases of IBD globally. The age-standardised prevalence rate increased from 79.5 (75.9-83.5) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 84.3 (79.2-89.9) per 100 000 population in 2017. The age-standardised death rate decreased from 0.61 (0.55-0.69) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 0.51 (0.42-0.54) per 100 000 population in 2017. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 2017 occurred in high-income North America (422.0 [398.7-446.1] per 100 000) and the lowest age-standardised prevalence rates were observed in the Caribbean (6.7 [6.3-7.2] per 100 000 population). High Sociodemographic Index (SDI) locations had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate, while low SDI regions had the lowest age-standardised prevalence rate. At the national level, the USA had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate (464.5 [438.6-490.9] per 100 000 population), followed by the UK (449.6 [420.6-481.6] per 100 000). Vanuatu had the highest age-standardised death rate in 2017 (1.8 [0.8-3.2] per 100 000 population) and Singapore had the lowest (0.08 [0.06-0.14] per 100 000 population). The total YLDs attributed to IBD almost doubled over the study period, from 0.56 million (0.39-0.77) in 1990 to 1.02 million (0.71-1.38) in 2017. The age-standardised rate of DALYs decreased from 26.5 (21.0-33.0) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 23.2 (19.1-27.8) per 100 000 population in 2017. Interpretation The prevalence of IBD increased substantially in many regions from 1990 to 2017, which might pose a substantial social and economic burden on governments and health systems in the coming years. Our findings can be useful for policy makers developing strategies to tackle IBD, including the education of specialised personnel to address the burden of this complex disease. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in 195 countries and territories, 1990�2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions. Understanding these geographical differences is crucial for formulating effective strategies for preventing and treating IBD. We report the prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of IBD in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Methods: We modelled mortality due to IBD using a standard Cause of Death Ensemble model including data mainly from vital registrations. To estimate the non-fatal burden, we used data presented in primary studies, hospital discharges, and claims data, and used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to ensure consistency between measures. Mortality, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated. All of the estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100 000 population, with 95 uncertainty intervals (UI). Findings: In 2017, there were 6·8 million (95 UI 6·4�7·3) cases of IBD globally. The age-standardised prevalence rate increased from 79·5 (75·9�83·5) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 84·3 (79·2�89·9) per 100 000 population in 2017. The age-standardised death rate decreased from 0·61 (0·55�0·69) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 0·51 (0·42�0·54) per 100 000 population in 2017. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 2017 occurred in high-income North America (422·0 398·7�446·1 per 100 000) and the lowest age-standardised prevalence rates were observed in the Caribbean (6·7 6·3�7·2 per 100 000 population). High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) locations had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate, while low SDI regions had the lowest age-standardised prevalence rate. At the national level, the USA had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate (464·5 438·6�490·9 per 100 000 population), followed by the UK (449·6 420·6�481·6 per 100 000). Vanuatu had the highest age-standardised death rate in 2017 (1·8 0·8�3·2 per 100 000 population) and Singapore had the lowest (0·08 0·06�0·14 per 100 000 population). The total YLDs attributed to IBD almost doubled over the study period, from 0·56 million (0·39�0·77) in 1990 to 1·02 million (0·71�1·38) in 2017. The age-standardised rate of DALYs decreased from 26·5 (21·0�33·0) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 23·2 (19·1�27·8) per 100 000 population in 2017. Interpretation: The prevalence of IBD increased substantially in many regions from 1990 to 2017, which might pose a substantial social and economic burden on governments and health systems in the coming years. Our findings can be useful for policy makers developing strategies to tackle IBD, including the education of specialised personnel to address the burden of this complex disease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens