The long-term causal effects of winning an ERC grant

El objetivo de este documento es investigar los efectos causales a largo plazo de la concesión de una beca del Consejo Europeo de Investigación (ERC, por sus siglas en inglés) en la productividad de los investigadores, en la excelencia de su trabajo y en su capacidad para obtener nuevas becas hasta nueve años después de la concesión de la beca. Nuestro análisis se basa en datos sobre el universo de solicitantes de becas del ERC entre 2007 y 2023, así como en información acerca de su historial completo de publicaciones disponible en la base de datos Scopus. Para identificar el efecto causal, primero utilizamos la regla de asignación de becas basada en la clasificación de los solicitantes, y comparamos las variables de resultados de los solicitantes que obtienen una beca con los de los solicitantes que no la obtienen utilizando un diseño de regresión en discontinuidad (RDD, por sus siglas en inglés). En el marco de esta metodología, el análisis encuentra efectos estadísticamente significativos en la productividad de los investigadores y en la calidad de la investigación, lo que sugiere que la obtención de una beca del ERC no constituye una diferencia en términos de impacto científico para los investigadores en una posición cercana al umbral en la clasificación. Dado que los diseños RDD contribuyen a identificar un efecto local, también realizamos un análisis de diferencias en diferencias (DID, por sus siglas en inglés) utilizando la serie temporal de los indicadores bibliométricos disponibles, lo que nos permite estimar el efecto en una población más amplia de solicitantes que obtienen la beca y de solicitantes a los que se les deniega. En contraposición a los resultados obtenidos del RDD, las estimaciones del DID muestran que la obtención de una beca del ERC genera efectos positivos a largo plazo en la productividad científica, en el impacto y en la capacidad de atraer otras fuentes de financiación de la Unión Europea en las áreas de química, ciencias del universo y de la tierra, instituciones y comportamientos, estudios de la mente humana y medicina. Un análisis adicional de los efectos heterogéneos nos lleva a concluir que los resultados positivos del DID parecen estar determinados por los solicitantes que ocupan las primeras posiciones en la clasificación en estas áreas.This paper investigates the long-term causal effects of receiving an ERC grant on researcher productivity, excellence and the ability to obtain additional research funding up to nine years after grant assignment. We use data on the universe of ERC applicants between 2007 and 2013 and information on their complete publication histories from the Scopus database. For identification, we first exploit the assignment rule based on rankings, comparing the outcomes of the winning and non-winning applicants in a regression discontinuity design (RDD). We fail to find any statistically significant effect on research productivity and quality, which suggests that receiving an ERC grant does not make a difference in terms of scientific impact for researchers with a ranking position close to the threshold. Since RDDs help identify a local effect, we also conduct a difference-in-differences (DID) analysis using the time series of bibliometric indicators available, which allows us to estimate the effect on a wider population of winning and non-winning applicants. By contrast with the RDD results, DID estimates show that obtaining an ERC grant leads to positive long-term effects on scientific productivity, impact and the capacity to attract other EU funds in the fields of Chemistry, Universe and Earth Sciences, Institutions and Behaviours, Human Mind Studies and Medicine. Further analysis of heterogeneous effects leads us conclude that the positive results obtained with DID seem to be driven by the top-ranked applicants in these fields

The intergenerational transmission of education: Evidence from the World War II cohorts in Europe

The negative long-term effects of World War II on those directly exposed to it are well documented, but there is no evidence whether these effects extended to subsequent generations. Our paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the intergenerational effects of World War II in terms of educational attainments. We focus on parent-children dyads in which parents were born between 1926 and 1949, and show two things. First, parents who suffered the war, that is, were exposed to major war events or personally experienced war-related hardship, ended up with less schooling than parents with similar characteristics who did not. Second, the children of parents who suffered the war have lower educational attainments than the children of parents with similar characteristics who did not suffer the war. Our reduced form results allow us to derive instrumental variables estimates of the coefficient of intergeneration transmission of education, which show that the effect of parental education is stronger for mothers than for fathers. They also show that the mother's education matters more for daughters than for sons.JRC.I.1-Monitoring, Indicators & Impact Evaluatio

Geographical proximity to refugee reception centres and voting

Abstract A number of studies examine the effect of the presence of migrants or refugees on voting behaviour in the same location, overlooking potential interactions between geographical areas. Exploiting unique data on refugee reception centre locations, we provide novel empirical evidence on the geographical spillover effect of refugee premises on voting outcomes in neighbouring municipalities. Our analysis of the 2016 referendum and the 2013 and 2018 general elections demonstrates that proximity to refugee reception centres increases voter turnout and the share of votes for populist parties in Italy, while reducing support for the centre-left. Importantly, the effect varies by municipality population size, per capita taxable income level, former political orientation, and access to broadband internet. Consistent with the hypothesis that opposition parties might have exploited anti-immigration sentiments to influence both referendum and general election ballots, we find that geographical proximity to refugee centres partly contributes to the recent success of populist parties in Italy

The powerful combination of cross-country comparisons and life-history data

In this paper we discuss the value of international comparative empirical studies within the broad field of the economics of ageing. We argue the value is particularly great when such comparative research is based on long life-history data on participants, collected using large-scale autobiographical life-history methods. We identify particular aspects of such comparisons that create value relative to other empirical methods and also briefly survey recent key papers to illustrate each aspect. Finally we provide a short new application of this method, using data from SHARE and ELSA, to look at the question of how labour markets for older workers in Europe have been changing across cohorts and the extent to which this has been associated with changing retirement ages in public pension systems

The Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation: Highlights of a year of activity

This flyer reports on a selection of highlights of the first year of activity of CC-ME by July 2017.JRC.I.1-Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluatio

The Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME) Yearbook 2018

This brochure reports highlights of activities in 2018 of the European Commission's Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME). CC-ME was founded on May 19, 2016 to support the evaluation function in the European Commission. CC-ME is part of Unit JRC.I.1 'Monitoring, Indicators & Impact Evaluation'. CC-ME builds on the experience of the Centre for Research on Impact Evaluation (CRIE), which started as a joint project of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Commission Directorate-General Employment, Social affairs and Inclusion (DG EMPL) in 2013. CRIE is now an integral part of CC-ME.JRC.I.1-Monitoring, Indicators & Impact Evaluatio

Is there a European land of opportunity? Cross-country differences in intergenerational mobility in 14 European countries and Israel

We explore cross-country variations in intergenerational mobility across Europe in the past half-century using subjective and objective non-monetary deprivation indices. Populations in Spain and Italy are the least socially mobile, independently of the relative poverty measures considered. Using material deprivation as indicator we find that populations in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are the most socially mobile. In terms of social deprivation, respondents in countries like Denmark and Germany seem to move up the status ladder

Does on-the-job training help graduates find a job? Evidence from an Italian region

This paper provides an evaluation of a training programme for graduates entitled \Work Experience for Graduates" (WELL - Work Experience Laureati and Laureate) that was re-cently implemented in Italy. The aim of the programme was to increase the career prospects of unemployed graduates in the region of Umbria. It consisted of two measures: (i) on-the-job training for unemployed graduates, and (ii) wage subsidies to firms and organisations for hiring the trainees at the end of the programme. We rely on administrative data and matching methods to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention in terms of the employability of participants. Results indicate that WELL participants are more likely to be employed and to sign an apprenticeship contract within the region. We also find substantial gender differences in employability and the type of contract obtained, with men having a higher probability of finding a job (permanent contract or apprenticeship). We show that this may be explained by different choices in terms of field of study, with males being more prone to enrolling in scientific areas and females in the humanities.JRC.I.1-Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluatio

Vocational training and labour market outcomes: Evidence from Youth Guarantee in Latvia

The aim of this report is to evaluate the impact of a vocational training (VT) programme introduced in Latvia in 2014 and targeted at unemployed youth. The training programme is part of the Youth Guarantee scheme supporting young people aged 15-29 who are not in education, employment or training (NEETs). This study is one of the first evaluations of a Youth Guarantee programme implemented in the programming period 2014-2020. Exploiting a priority rule given to Latvian youth under the age of 25, we use a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) in order to identify the causal effect of participating in the VT programme on employment outcomes. The priority rule is used to estimate the model through instrumental variables techniques by means of Two Stages Least Squares estimators. We merge rich administrative data from the State Employment Agency of Latvia, which provide information on persons who are registered as unemployed (participants and non-participants), with data from the Latvian State Revenue Service, which provide information on income before and after the programme. The estimated effects of the programme on employment and monthly income are positive but not statistically significant, although we find a strong positive effect of the priority rule on programme participation. Overall, our findings are in line with those from the literature on the evaluation of active labour market policies targeting youth.JRC.I.1-Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluatio