Genetic mixed-stock analysis of Atlantic herring populations in a mixed feeding area

Determining spatio-temporal distributions of fish populations is of interest to marine ecology, in general, and to fisheries science in particular. Genetic mixed-stock analysis is routinely applied in several anadromous fishes for determining migratory routes and timing but has rarely been used for marine fishes, for which population differentiation is commonly weak and the method presumably less powerful. We used microsatellite information for Northeast Atlantic herring Clupea harengus L. populations and mixed stocks to address 2 questions. We used simulated mixture samples and 3 different statistical approaches to determine whether mixed stock composition could be determined with accuracy. Simulations showed that the applied approaches and mixture samples of 100 individuals enabled detailed composition analyses on a regional level, with resolution for tracing the ecologically dominant Rügen (Greifswalder Bodden) herring population. We then estimated spatio-temporal variation in herring migratory behaviour in the Skagerrak from 17 mixed samples collected over 2 seasons and 2 yr, and identified hitherto undescribed differences in distributions among populations that feed and winter in the area

North Sea herring population structure revealed by microsatellite analysis

The Atlantic herring Clupea harengus has played a pivotal role in the formulation of ideas relating to population structuring in marine fishes, yet considerable uncertainty remains as to the extent to which phenotypic and genetic differentiation coincide in such a highly mobile species. In this study, we examined genetic population structure across the major herring spawning aggregations in the North Sea and adjacent waters over 2 years, 2002 and 2003. We analysed 1660 spawning individuals across 9 microsatellite loci. Data were analysed using several approaches, taking into account the effect of location, year-class and sex, as well as pooling all individuals together, making no assumption as to the number of populations present in the data set. The results suggest the presence of a genetically homogeneous unit off Northern Scotland, and a temporally stable pattern of isolation by distance determined predominantly by the divergence of the English Channel samples and, in 2003, by the Norwegian spring spawners. Our data suggest that the current view of North Sea herring as a unit-stock might be adequate, but confirm the considerable degree of demographic independence of the herring populations in the English Channel. Despite major recent population collapses, genetic data indicated no evidence of bottlenecks affecting the genetic diversity of extant North Sea herring populations. Finally, despite evidence of weak population structuring, we discuss the risks of underestimating population differentiation in marine fish of large population sizes, and with reference to herring population history and dynamics, we attempt to reconcile the existing theories on herring population structure

Genetic mixed-stock analysis of Atlantic herring populations in a mixed feeding area

Determining spatio-temporal distributions of fish populations is of interest to marine ecology, in general, and to fisheries science in particular. Genetic mixed-stock analysis is routinely applied in several anadromous fishes for determining migratory routes and timing but has rarely been used for marine fishes, for which population differentiation is commonly weak and the method presumably less powerful. We used microsatellite information for Northeast Atlantic herring Clupea harengus L. populations and mixed stocks to address 2 questions. We used simulated mixture samples and 3 different statistical approaches to determine whether mixed stock composition could be determined with accuracy. Simulations showed that the applied approaches and mixture samples of 100 individuals enabled detailed composition analyses on a regional level, with resolution for tracing the ecologically dominant Rügen (Greifswalder Bodden) herring population. We then estimated spatio-temporal variation in herring migratory behaviour in the Skagerrak from 17 mixed samples collected over 2 seasons and 2 yr, and identified hitherto undescribed differences in distributions among populations that feed and winter in the area.2016-12-0

Biocomplexity in a highly migratory pelagic marine fish, Atlantic herring

The existence of biologically differentiated populations has been credited with a major role in conferring sustainability and in buffering overall productivity of anadromous fish population complexes where evidence for spatial structure is uncontroversial. Here, we describe evidence of correlated genetic and life history (spawning season linked to spawning location) differentiation in an abundant and highly migratory pelagic fish, Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, in the North Sea (NS) and adjacent areas. The existence of genetically and phenotypically diverse stocks in this region despite intense seasonal mixing strongly implicates natal homing in this species. Based on information from genetic markers and otolith morphology, we estimate the proportional contribution by NS, Skagerrak (SKG) and Kattegat and western Baltic (WBS) fish to mixed aggregations targeted by the NS fishery. We use these estimates to identify spatial and temporal differences in life history (migratory behaviour) and habitat use among genetically differentiated migratory populations that mix seasonally. Our study suggests the existence of more complex patterns of intraspecific diversity than was previously recognized. Sustainability may be compromised if such complex patterns are reduced through generalized management (e.g. area closures) that overlooks population differences in spatial use throughout the life cycle

Problems with Evidence Assessment in COVID-19 Health Policy Impact Evaluation (PEACHPIE): A systematic review of evidence strength

Introduction: The impact of policies on COVID-19 outcomes is one of the most important questions of our time. Unfortunately, there are substantial concerns about the strength and quality of the literature examining policy impacts. This study systematically assessed the currently published COVID-19 policy impact literature for a checklist of study design elements and methodological issues. Methods: We included studies that were primarily designed to estimate the quantitative impact of one or more implemented COVID-19 policies on direct SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 outcomes. After searching PubMed for peer-reviewed articles published on November 26 or earlier and screening, all studies were reviewed by three reviewers independently and in consensus. The review tool was based on review guidance for assessing COVID-19 health policy impact evaluation analyses, including first identifying the assumptions behind the methods used, followed by assessing graphical display of outcomes data, functional form for the outcomes, timing between policy and impact, concurrent changes to the outcomes, and an overall rating. Results: After 102 articles were identified as potentially meeting inclusion criteria, we identified 36 published articles that evaluated the quantitative impact of COVID-19 policies on direct COVID-19 outcomes. The majority (n=23/36) of studies in our sample examined the impact of stay-at-home requirements. Nine studies were set aside due to inappropriate study design (n=8 pre/post; n=1 cross-section), and 27 articles were given a full consensus assessment. 20/27 met criteria for graphical display of data, 5/27 for functional form, 19/27 for timing between policy implementation and impact, and only 3/27 for concurrent changes to the outcomes. Only 1/27 studies passed all of the above checks, and 4/27 were rated as overall appropriate. Including the 9 studies set aside, we found that only four (or by a stricter standard, only one) of the 36 identified published and peer-reviewed health policy impact evaluation studies passed a set of key design checks for identifying the causal impact of policies on COVID-19 outcomes. Discussion: The current literature directly evaluating the impact of COVID-19 policies largely fails to meet key design criteria for useful inference. This may be partially due to the circumstances for evaluation being particularly difficult, as well as a context with desire for rapid publication, the importance of the topic, and weak peer review processes. Importantly, weak evidence is non-informative and does not indicate how effective these policies were on COVID-19 outcomes

Problems with evidence assessment in COVID-19 health policy impact evaluation: a systematic review of study design and evidence strength

INTRODUCTION: Assessing the impact of COVID-19 policy is critical for informing future policies. However, there are concerns about the overall strength of COVID-19 impact evaluation studies given the circumstances for evaluation and concerns about the publication environment. METHODS: We included studies that were primarily designed to estimate the quantitative impact of one or more implemented COVID-19 policies on direct SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 outcomes. After searching PubMed for peer-reviewed articles published on 26 November 2020 or earlier and screening, all studies were reviewed by three reviewers first independently and then to consensus. The review tool was based on previously developed and released review guidance for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation. RESULTS: After 102 articles were identified as potentially meeting inclusion criteria, we identified 36 published articles that evaluated the quantitative impact of COVID-19 policies on direct COVID-19 outcomes. Nine studies were set aside because the study design was considered inappropriate for COVID-19 policy impact evaluation (n=8 pre/post; n=1 cross-sectional), and 27 articles were given a full consensus assessment. 20/27 met criteria for graphical display of data, 5/27 for functional form, 19/27 for timing between policy implementation and impact, and only 3/27 for concurrent changes to the outcomes. Only 4/27 were rated as overall appropriate. Including the 9 studies set aside, reviewers found that only four of the 36 identified published and peer-reviewed health policy impact evaluation studies passed a set of key design checks for identifying the causal impact of policies on COVID-19 outcomes. DISCUSSION: The reviewed literature directly evaluating the impact of COVID-19 policies largely failed to meet key design criteria for inference of sufficient rigour to be actionable by policy-makers. More reliable evidence review is needed to both identify and produce policy-actionable evidence, alongside the recognition that actionable evidence is often unlikely to be feasible