Forecasting with Sparse but Informative Variables: A Case Study in Predicting Blood Glucose

In time-series forecasting, future target values may be affected by both intrinsic and extrinsic effects. When forecasting blood glucose, for example, intrinsic effects can be inferred from the history of the target signal alone (\textit{i.e.} blood glucose), but accurately modeling the impact of extrinsic effects requires auxiliary signals, like the amount of carbohydrates ingested. Standard forecasting techniques often assume that extrinsic and intrinsic effects vary at similar rates. However, when auxiliary signals are generated at a much lower frequency than the target variable (e.g., blood glucose measurements are made every 5 minutes, while meals occur once every few hours), even well-known extrinsic effects (e.g., carbohydrates increase blood glucose) may prove difficult to learn. To better utilize these \textit{sparse but informative variables} (SIVs), we introduce a novel encoder/decoder forecasting approach that accurately learns the per-timepoint effect of the SIV, by (i) isolating it from intrinsic effects and (ii) restricting its learned effect based on domain knowledge. On a simulated dataset pertaining to the task of blood glucose forecasting, when the SIV is accurately recorded our approach outperforms baseline approaches in terms of rMSE (13.07 [95% CI: 11.77,14.16] vs. 14.14 [12.69,15.27]). In the presence of a corrupted SIV, the proposed approach can still result in lower error compared to the baseline but the advantage is reduced as noise increases. By isolating their effects and incorporating domain knowledge, our approach makes it possible to better utilize SIVs in forecasting.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables, accepted to AAAI2

THE MATURATION OF WESTERN EQUINE ENCEPHALOMYELITIS VIRUS AND ITS RELEASE FROM CHICK EMBRYO CELLS IN SUSPENSION

Experiments are presented in which the plaque assay technique was used to study the intracellular appearance and release of Western equine encephalomyelitis virus in suspensions of infected chick embryo fibroblasts. No intracellular virus could be found during the 1st hour after adsorption in spite of the fact that more than 1014 cells per ml. proved to be infected. This is taken to indicate that the infecting particle loses its infectivity upon entering a susceptible cell. The first progeny virus was detectable in the cells between 1 and 2 hours after infection, and it increased in amount exponentially during the following 3 hours. The released virus as measured in the supernatant fluid increased at the same rate as the intracellular virus but exceeded it in amount by a factor of about twenty at all times during the period of exponential increase. More than 100 particles were spontaneously released from each cell, by the end of the period of exponential increase, yet the maximum number of intracellular infective particles at any instant during this period was never more than an average of from 4 to 10 per cell. Calculations based on these findings indicate that, on the average, a virus particle is released from the cell within 1 minute after it gains the property of infectiousness

Participation in an innovative patient support program reduces prescription abandonment for adalimumab-treated patients in a commercial population.

Purpose: Nonadherence to indicated therapy reduces treatment effectiveness and may increase cost of care. HUMIRA Complete, a Patient Support Program (PSP), aims to reduce nonadherence in patients prescribed adalimumab (ADA). The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between participation in the PSP and prescription abandonment rates among ADA-treated patients. Patients and methods: This longitudinal study using patient-level data from AbbVie\u27s PSP linked with medical and pharmacy claims data included patients ≥18 years with an ADA-approved indication, ≥1 pharmacy claim for ADA, and available data ≥3 months before and ≥6 months after the index date (defined as the initial ADA claim [01/2015 to 02/2017]). Abandonment was defined as reversal of initial ADA prescription with no paid claim during 3-month follow-up. Abandonment rates were compared between PSP and non-PSP cohorts using multivariable logistic regression controlling for potentially confounding baseline characteristics. Results: In 17,371 patients (9,851 PSP; 7,520 non-PSP), the overall abandonment rate was 10.8-16.8% across indications. The odds of ADA abandonment were 70% less for PSP vs non-PSP patients (5.6% vs 20.4%, odds ratio [OR]=0.30, [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.27-0.33] Conclusion: Participation in the PSP, higher income, and using a specialty pharmacy were associated with lower odds of abandoning ADA therapy, whereas increased copayments were associated with greater abandonment. PSPs should be considered to improve initiation of ADA therapy

An evidence-based theory of change for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in reopened schools

Schools have closed worldwide as part of measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission but are beginning to reopen in some countries. Various measures are being pursued to minimise transmission but existing guidance has not developed a comprehensive framework or theory of change. We present a framework informed by the occupational health hierarchy of control and a theory of change informed by realist approaches. We present measures focused on elimination, substitution, engineering, administration, education and personal protective equipment. We theorise that such measures offer a means of disrupting SARS-CoV-2 transmission via routes involving fomites, faeco-oral routes, droplets and aerosols

Delivery of Dark Material to Vesta via Carbonaceous Chondritic Impacts

NASA's Dawn spacecraft observations of asteroid (4) Vesta reveal a surface with the highest albedo and color variation of any asteroid we have observed so far. Terrains rich in low albedo dark material (DM) have been identified using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) 0.75 {\mu}m filter images in several geologic settings: associated with impact craters (in the ejecta blanket material and/or on the crater walls and rims); as flow-like deposits or rays commonly associated with topographic highs; and as dark spots (likely secondary impacts) nearby impact craters. This DM could be a relic of ancient volcanic activity or exogenic in origin. We report that the majority of the spectra of DM are similar to carbonaceous chondrite meteorites mixed with materials indigenous to Vesta. Using high-resolution seven color images we compared DM color properties (albedo, band depth) with laboratory measurements of possible analog materials. Band depth and albedo of DM are identical to those of carbonaceous chondrite xenolith-rich howardite Mt. Pratt (PRA) 04401. Laboratory mixtures of Murchison CM2 carbonaceous chondrite and basaltic eucrite Millbillillie also show band depth and albedo affinity to DM. Modeling of carbonaceous chondrite abundance in DM (1-6 vol%) is consistent with howardite meteorites. We find no evidence for large-scale volcanism (exposed dikes/pyroclastic falls) as the source of DM. Our modeling efforts using impact crater scaling laws and numerical models of ejecta reaccretion suggest the delivery and emplacement of this DM on Vesta during the formation of the ~400 km Veneneia basin by a low-velocity (<2 km/sec) carbonaceous impactor. This discovery is important because it strengthens the long-held idea that primitive bodies are the source of carbon and probably volatiles in the early Solar System.Comment: Icarus (Accepted) Pages: 58 Figures: 15 Tables:

Iron depletion suppresses mTORC1-directed signalling in intestinal Caco-2 cells via induction of REDD

Acknowledgements This work was supported by grants from the Biotechnology and Biological Science Research Council (BB/I007261/1 and BB/N002342/1) and The Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS 854/11).Peer reviewedPublisher PD