A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Transvesical endoscopic port in abdominal surgery: an updated perspective

Transvesical endoscopic port in abdominal surgery: an updated perspective.Natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery (NOTES) generated a huge hope among surgeons because it promised scarless surgery and eventually less pain and surgical stress. However, serious limitations regarding reliable visceral closing methods remain unsolved. This article provides an update in development and future applications of transvesical access in the field of surgery.(undefined

Actigraph Accelerometer-Defined Boundaries for Sedentary Behaviour and Physical Activity Intensities in 7 Year Old Children

Background: Accurate objective assessment of sedentary and physical activity behaviours during childhood is integral to the understanding of their relation to later health outcomes, as well as to documenting the frequency and distribution of physical activity within a population.Purpose: To calibrate the Actigraph GT1M accelerometer, using energy expenditure (EE) as the criterion measure, to define thresholds for sedentary behaviour and physical activity categories suitable for use in a large scale epidemiological study in young children.Methods: Accelerometer-based assessments of physical activity (counts per minute) were calibrated against EE measures (kcal.kg(-1).hr(-1)) obtained over a range of exercise intensities using a COSMED K4b(2) portable metabolic unit in 53 seven-year-old children. Children performed seven activities: lying down viewing television, sitting upright playing a computer game, slow walking, brisk walking, jogging, hopscotch and basketball. Threshold count values were established to identify sedentary behaviour and light, moderate and vigorous physical activity using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Results: EE was significantly associated with counts for all non-sedentary activities with the exception of jogging. Threshold values for accelerometer counts (counts. minute(-1)) were = 3841 for light, moderate and vigorous physical activity respectively. The area under the ROC curves for discrimination of sedentary behaviour and vigorous activity were 0.98. Boundaries for light and moderate physical activity were less well defined (0.61 and 0.60 respectively). Sensitivity and specificity were higher for sedentary (99% and 97%) and vigorous (95% and 91%) than for light (60% and 83%) and moderate (61% and 76%) thresholds.Conclusion: The accelerometer cut points established in this study can be used to classify sedentary behaviour and to distinguish between light, moderate and vigorous physical activity in children of this age

Obesity and survival in operable breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant anthracyclines and taxanes according to pathological subtypes: a pooled analysis

IntroductionObesity is an unfavorable prognostic factor in breast cancer (BC) patients regardless of menopausal status and treatment received. However, the association between obesity and survival outcome by pathological subtype requires further clarification.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis including 5,683 operable BC patients enrolled in four randomized clinical trials (GEICAM/9906, GEICAM/9805, GEICAM/2003–02, and BCIRG 001) evaluating anthracyclines and taxanes as adjuvant treatments. Our primary aim was to assess the prognostic effect of body mass index (BMI) on disease recurrence, breast cancer mortality (BCM), and overall mortality (OM). A secondary aim was to detect differences of such prognostic effects by subtype.ResultsMultivariate survival analyses adjusting for age, tumor size, nodal status, menopausal status, surgery type, histological grade, hormone receptor status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, chemotherapy regimen, and under-treatment showed that obese patients (BMI 30.0 to 34.9) had similar prognoses to that of patients with a BMI < 25 (reference group) in terms of recurrence (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.90 to 1.30), BCM (HR = 1.02, 0.81 to 1.29), and OM (HR = 0.97, 0.78 to 1.19). Patients with severe obesity (BMI ≥ 35) had a significantly increased risk of recurrence (HR = 1.26, 1.00 to 1.59, P = 0.048), BCM (HR = 1.32, 1.00 to 1.74, P = 0.050), and OM (HR = 1.35, 1.06 to 1.71, P = 0.016) compared to our reference group. The prognostic effect of severe obesity did not vary by subtype.ConclusionsSeverely obese patients treated with anthracyclines and taxanes present a worse prognosis regarding recurrence, BCM, and OM than patients with BMI < 25. The magnitude of the harmful effect of BMI on survival-related outcomes was similar across subtypes

Minimally invasive strabismus surgery (MISS) for inferior obliquus recession

PURPOSE: To present a novel, minimally invasive strabismus surgery (MISS) technique for inferior obliquus recessions. METHODS: Graded MISS inferior obliquus recessions were performed in 20 eyes of 15 patients by applying two small conjunctival cuts, one at the insertion of inferior obliquus and another where the scleral anchoring of the muscle occurred. RESULTS: The amount of recession was 12.2 +/- 2.3 mm (range 6 to 14 mm). The vertical deviation, which was measured in 25 degrees of adduction, decreased from preoperatively 12.8 degrees +/- 5.6 degrees to 2.7 degrees +/- 2.2 degrees (p 0.1). In one eye (2.5%) the two cuts had to be joined because of excessive bleeding. Binocular vision improved in eight patients, remained unchanged in six patients, and decreased from 30 to 60 arcsec in one patient (p > 0.1). Conjunctival and lid swelling were hardly visible on the first postoperative day in primary gaze position in 10/20 (50%) of eyes. Five of the eyes (25%) had mild and five (25%) moderate visibility of surgery. One patient out of 15 (7%) needed repeat surgery because of insufficient reduction of the sursoadduction within the first 6 months. The dose-effect relationship 6 months postoperatively for an accommodative near target at 25 degrees adduction was 0.83 degrees +/- 0.43 degrees per mm of recession. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that small-incision, minimal dissection inferior obliquus graded recessions are feasible and effective to improve ocular alignment in patients with strabismus sursoadductorius

Which Is the Most Suitable Classification for Colorectal Cancer, Log Odds, the Number or the Ratio of Positive Lymph Nodes?

Objective: The aim of the current study was to investigate which is the most suitable classification for colorectal cancer, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) classification or the classifications based on the number of positive lymph nodes (pN) and positive lymph node ratio(LNR) in a Chinese single institutional population. Design: Clinicopathologic and prognostic data of 1297 patients with colorectal cancer were retrospectively studied. The log-rank statistics, Cox’s proportional hazards model, the Nagelkerke R 2 index and a Harrell’s C statistic were used. Results: Univariate and three-step multivariate analyses identified that LNR was a significant prognostic factor and LNR classification was superior to both the pN and LODDS classifications. Moreover, the results of the Nagelkerke R 2 index (0.130) and a Harrell’s C statistic (0.707) of LNR showed that LNR and LODDS classifications were similar and LNR was a little better than the other two classifications. Furthermore, for patients in each LNR classification, prognosis was homologous between those in different pN or LODDS classifications. However, for patients in pN1a, pN1b, LODDS2 and LODDS3 classifications, significant differences in survival were observed among patients in different LNR classifications. Conclusions: For patients with colorectal cancer, the LNR classification is more suitable than pN and LODDS classification

China’s Pledge to Civilise “All Under Heaven”

With China's global rise, both its state leadership and key academics have engaged in developing a civilisational discourse for the twenty-first century partly based on ancient cosmological concepts. This article explores the meanings of and intentions behind this discourse, including its promise of a Chinese-led world order, and discusses its intended audience and international appeal. In the backdrop of theoretical debates on empires and their missions, the article claims that without a corresponding cultural appeal, China's rising economic power and geostrategic clout are insufficient conditions to realise an empire in the classical sense. Growing inconsistencies mar the country's imperial ambitions, such as those between a global civilising outreach and a toughening domestic embrace. Instead, imperial rhetoric is cautiously integrated in the party-state's restoration of a Chinese "empire within," indicating self-centredness and a lurking re-traditionalising of Chinese state power