Projected health-care resource needs for an effective response to COVID-19 in 73 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND; : Since WHO declared the COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, more than 20 million cases have been reported, as of Aug 24, 2020. This study aimed to identify what the additional health-care costs of a strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) would be if current transmission levels are maintained in a status quo scenario, or under scenarios where transmission is increased or decreased by 50%.; METHODS; : The number of COVID-19 cases was projected for 73 low-income and middle-income countries for each of the three scenarios for both 4-week and 12-week timeframes, starting from June 26, 2020. An input-based approach was used to estimate the additional health-care costs associated with human resources, commodities, and capital inputs that would be accrued in implementing the SPRP. FINDINGS: The total cost estimate for the COVID-19 response in the status quo scenario was US$52.45 billion over 4 weeks, at$8.60 per capita. For the decreased or increased transmission scenarios, the totals were $33.08 billion and$61.92 billion, respectively. Costs would triple under the status quo and increased transmission scenarios at 12 weeks. The costs of the decreased transmission scenario over 12 weeks was equivalent to the cost of the status quo scenario at 4 weeks. By percentage of the overall cost, case management (54%), maintaining essential services (21%), rapid response and case investigation (14%), and infection prevention and control (9%) were the main cost drivers.; INTERPRETATION; : The sizeable costs of a COVID-19 response in the health sector will escalate, particularly if transmission increases. Instituting early and comprehensive measures to limit the further spread of the virus will conserve resources and sustain the response.; FUNDING; : WHO, and UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office

Near-Limb Zeeman and Hanle Diagnostics

"Weak" magnetic-field diagnostics in faint objects near the bright solar disk are discussed in terms of the level of non-object signatures, in particular, of the stray light in telescopes. Calculated dependencies of the stray light caused by diffraction at the 0.5-, 1.6-, and 4-meter entrance aperture are presented. The requirements for micro-roughness of refractive and reflective primary optics are compared. Several methods for reducing the stray light (the Lyot coronagraphic technique, multiple stages of apodizing in the focal and exit pupil planes, apodizing in the entrance aperture plane with a special mask), and reducing the random and systematic errors are noted. An acceptable level of stray light in telescopes is estimated for the V-profile recording with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than three. Prospects for the limb chromosphere magnetic measurements are indicated.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

Lines Missing Every Random Point

We prove that there is, in every direction in Euclidean space, a line that misses every computably random point. We also prove that there exist, in every direction in Euclidean space, arbitrarily long line segments missing every double exponential time random point.Comment: Added a section: "Betting in Doubly Exponential Time.

Scattering polarization of hydrogen lines in the presence of turbulent electric fields

We study the broadband polarization of hydrogen lines produced by scattering of radiation, in the presence of isotropic electric fields. In this paper, we focus on two distinct problems: a) the possibility of detecting the presence of turbulent electric fields by polarimetric methods, and b) the influence of such fields on the polarization due to a macroscopic, deterministic magnetic field. We found that isotropic electric fields decrease the degree of linear polarization in the scattered radiation, with respect to the zero-field case. On the other hand, a distribution of isotropic electric fields superimposed onto a deterministic magnetic field can generate a significant increase of the degree of magnetic-induced, net circular polarization. This phenomenon has important implications for the diagnostics of magnetic fields in plasmas using hydrogen lines, because of the ubiquitous presence of the Holtsmark, microscopic electric field from neighbouring ions. In particular, previous solar magnetographic studies of the Balmer lines of hydrogen may need to be revised because they neglected the effect of turbulent electric fields on the polarization signals. In this work, we give explicit results for the Lyman-alpha and Balmer-alpha lines.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

Development of coordination and muscular fitness in children and adolescents with parent-reported ADHD in the German longitudinal MoMo Study

This study examined the development of muscular fitness and coordination in children and adolescents with and without attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) over a period of 11 years. Data was collected in three measurement waves as part of the longitudinal, representative Motorik-Modul (MoMo) study in Germany (2003–2006, 2009–2012, 2014–2017). The overall sample comprised 2988 participants (253 with ADHD, 65% males; 2735 non-ADHD, 47% males; mean age 9 years). Structural equation modeling was conducted, and the estimated models had a good fit. No differences in muscular fitness were observed between participants with and without ADHD. Participants with ADHD had a lower coordinative performance at first measurement than those without ADHD. The difference in coordinative performance persisted throughout the study period

All Doors Lead to the Kitchen – Sustainability and Wellbeing Challenges in a Shared Centrepiece of Living

The kitchen figures a central place in the home where a significant share of a household’s resource consumption takes place. Sharing the kitchen between multiple households has potential to bring positive sustainability effects due to more efficient use of both material resources and energy. The concept of shared kitchens has, however, thus far had a limited diffusion. This paper explores the potential of shared kitchens as a future sustainable living environment by studying user experiences from a Living Lab setting. It builds the base for an overarching larger European collaboration on how future shared kitchens should be designed in order to support everyday practices while optimising the conditions for achieving positive impact on both sustainability and wellbeing. Findings are presented from five focus areas concerning different use contexts: (1) accessing, (2) cooking, (3) living and socialising, (4) storing, and (5) cleaning

Unravelling controls on multi-source-to-sink systems:A stratigraphic forward model of the early–middle Cenozoic of the SW Barents Sea

Source-to-sink dynamics are subjected to complex interactions between erosion, sediment transfer and deposition, particularly in an evolving tectonic and climatic setting. Here we use stratigraphic forward modelling (SFM) to predict the basin-fill architecture of a multi-source-to-sink system based on a state-of-the-art numerical approach. The modelling processes consider key source-to-sink parameters such as water discharge, sediment load and grain size to simulate various sedimentary processes and transport mechanisms reflecting the dynamic interplay between erosion in the catchment area, subsidence, deposition and filling of the basin. The Cenozoic succession along the SW Barents Shelf margin provides a key area to examine controls on source-to-sink systems along a transform margin that developed during the opening of the North Atlantic when Greenland and Eurasian plates were separated (ca. 55 Ma onwards). Moreover, the gradual cooling which culminated in major glaciations in the northern hemisphere during the Quaternary (ca. 2.7 Ma), has affected the spatio-temporal evolution of the sediment routing along the western Barents Shelf margin. This study aims to characterize the relative importance of different source areas within the source-to-sink framework through SFM. In the early Eocene, the SW Barents Shelf experienced a relatively equal sediment delivery from three principal source areas: (i) Greenland to the north, (ii) the Stappen High to the east, representing a local source terrain, and (iii) a major southern source (Fennoscandia). In the middle Eocene, our best-fit modelling scenario suggests that the northern and the local eastern sources dominated over the southern source, collectively supplying large amounts of sand into the basin as evidenced by the submarine fans in Sørvestsnaget Basin. In the Oligocene (ca. 33 Ma) and Miocene (ca. 23 Ma), significant amounts of sediments were sourced from the east due to shelf-wide uplift. Finally, this study highlights the dynamic nature and controls of sediment transfer in multi-source-to-sink systems and demonstrates the potential of SFM to unravel tectonic and climatic signals in the stratigraphic record

Mapping the systematic literature studies about software ecosystems

There is a need to improve the definition and development of technological ecosystems in order to solve the main problems detected in previous studies. To achieve this goal, it is required to identify and analyse the solutions available in the literature in the field of software engineering applied to ecosystems. The research in software ecosystems is a relatively young research area, but there are already several works that analyse the literature associated. To conduct a new systematic literature review is necessary to ensure that there are no studies that do the same, namely, that do not answer the same research questions. The identification of the need for a review was done through a study focused on systematic literature reviews and mapping studies about software ecosystems. This work aims to describe the mapping conducted as part of that study. It provides a global state of the art of this kind of studies in the area of software ecosystems