Hydrological summary for the United Kingdom: December 2022

The monthly summary of hydrological conditions in the United Kingdom is compiled as part of the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme (a joint UKCEH and BGS enterprise). The report features contemporary data for rainfall, river flow, reservoir and groundwater levels in the form of maps and graphs. A commentary is provided on the status of the nation’s water resources and any notable hydrological events during the month. The National River Flow and National Groundwater Level Archives help provide an historical context for these contemporary assessments. Financial support for the production of the Hydrological Summaries is provided by Defra, the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, the Rivers Agency in Northern Ireland and the Office of Water Services

Hydrological summary for the United Kingdom: May 2023

The monthly summary of hydrological conditions in the United Kingdom is compiled as part of the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme (a joint UKCEH and BGS enterprise). The report features contemporary data for rainfall, river flow, reservoir and groundwater levels in the form of maps and graphs. A commentary is provided on the status of the nation’s water resources and any notable hydrological events during the month. The National River Flow and National Groundwater Level Archives help provide an historical context for these contemporary assessments. Financial support for the production of the Hydrological Summaries is provided by Defra, the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, the Rivers Agency in Northern Ireland and the Office of Water Services

Receiving Preferred Treatment not Associated with Positive Outcome in a Randomized Trial

Background: In a randomized trial of treatments for chronic widespread pain (CWP), participants were asked their treatment preference just prior to randomisation (baseline). This analysis examined whether treatment preference was associated with baseline factors and whether receiving a preferred treatment affected outcomes. Methods: The MUSICIAN trial was a 2 × 2 randomized trial of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) or exercise for people with CWP. Participants were randomly allocated to one of three active treatments [CBT (n = 112), exercise (n = 109), both exercise and CBT (n = 112)] or usual care (n = 109). Before allocation participants were asked, if they had a choice, which active treatment they would choose. A positive outcome was self-reported improvement in health of much or very much better 6, 9 and 30 months after entering the study. Associations between preference and baseline characteristics were examined, including age, gender, chronic pain grade (CPG), passive and active coping, fatigue, psychological distress, sleep problems and kinesiophobia. Differences in gender and CPG between preferences were tested by chi-square tests. For continuous variables, comparison was by analysis of variance and, where a difference was observed, Tukey’s honest significant difference was used to identify which preferences differed and then the standardized mean difference (d) with 95% CIs were calculated. Among those allocated to active treatments, logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios, adjusted for factors associated with preference, with 95% CIs of positive outcome in those receiving their preferred treatment and not receiving preferred treatment as the referent group. Results: Of 442 participants, 144 (33%) expressed preference for exercise, 20 (5%) for CBT, 199 (45%) for combined exercise and CBT and 79 (18%) expressed no preference. Compared with females, males were more likely to prefer exercise only (44 vs 28%) and less likely to prefer combined treatment (35 vs 50%). Those preferring CBT, compared with those preferring exercise, were higher in passive coping [d = 0.9 (95% CI 0.41, 1.37)], fatigue [0.8 (0.34, 1.31)], psychological distress [0.7 (0.26, 1.21)], sleep problems [0.7 (0.18, 1.12)] and kinesiophobia [0.6 (0.17, 1.12)]. Those preferring CBT also had greater scores on passive coping than those preferring combined treatment [0.6 (95% CI 0.11, 1.03)] or no preference [0.5 (−0.01, 0.98)] and greater kinesiophobia than those with no preference [0.5 (−0.05, 0.95)]. Of participants allocated to CBT, exercise or combined treatment, 7, 39 and 50%, respectively, had a preference for their allocated treatment. There was no clear association between achieving a positive outcome and whether or not someone received their preferred treatment (see Table 1). Conclusion: Exercise and exercise combined with CBT were the most preferred treatments. Participants with specific preferences differed from each other with respect to factors which might influence outcome. However, receiving preferred treatment did not appear to influence treatment response. Disclosure statement: M.B. has received funding for the MUSICIAN Study from Arthritis Research UK. G.J.M. has received funding for the MUSICIAN Study from Arthritis Research UK. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest

Mechanical Analysis of the Nb3Sn Dipole Magnet HD1

The Superconducting Magnet Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has recently fabricated and tested HD1, a Nb3Sn dipole magnet. The magnet reached a 16 T field, and exhibited training quenches in the end regions and in the straight section. After the test, HD1 was disassembled and inspected, and a detailed 3D finite element mechanical analysis was done to investigate for possible quench triggers. The study led to minor modifications to mechanical structure and assembly procedure, which were verified in a second test (HD1b). This paper presents the results of the mechanical analysis, including strain gauge measurements and coil visual inspection. The adjustments implemented in the magnet structure are reported and their effect on magnet training discussed

On the variability of cold region flooding

Cold region hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with both climate and the cryosphere. Improving knowledge on that complexity is essential to determine drivers of extreme events and to predict changes under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for cold region flooding where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on high flows. This study explores changes in the magnitude and the timing of streamflow in 18 Swedish Sub-Arctic catchments over their full record periods available and a common period (1990-2013). The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in several hydrological signatures (e.g. annual maximum daily flow, mean summer flow, snowmelt onset). Further, trends in the flood frequency were determined by fitting an extreme value type I (Gumbel) distribution to test selected flood percentiles for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach.Results highlight shifts from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated flow regimes with all significant trends (at the 5% significance level) pointing toward (1) lower magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest widespread permafrost thawing and are supported by increasing trends in annual minimum daily flows. Trends in selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the full periods of record (significant for only four catchments), while trends were variable over the common period of data among the catchments. An uncertainty analysis emphasizes that the observed trends are highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional hydrological response pattern could be determined suggesting that catchment response to regionally consistent changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they mak

Design and Fabrication of a Supporting Structure for 3.6m Long Nb3Sn Racetrack Coils

As part of the LHC Accelerator Research Program (LARP), three US national laboratories (BNL, FNAL, and LBNL) are currently engaged in the development of superconducting magnets for the LHC Interaction Regions (IR) beyond the current design. As a first step towards the development of long Nb{sub 3}Sn quadrupole magnets, a 3.6 m long structure, based on the LBNL Subscale Common-Coil Magnet design, will be fabricated, assembled, and tested with aluminum-plate 'dummy coils'. The structure features an aluminum shell pre-tensioned over iron yokes using pressurized bladders and locking keys (bladder and key technology). Pre-load homogeneity and mechanical responses are monitored with pressure sensitive films and strain gauges mounted on the aluminum shell and the dummy coils. The details of the design and fabrication are presented and discussed, and the expected mechanical behavior is analyzed with finite element models

Climate change and water in the UK : past changes and future prospects: a climate change report card for water: Working technical paper

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperatures and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to climate change, but over the last fifty years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and the water available for use by people. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. Water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms. Water demand may increase in response to higher summer temperatures, placing additional pressure on water resources. These changes affect many parts of everyday life, emphasising the importance of long-term adaptation that takes these possible changes into account

Adding 6 months of androgen deprivation therapy to postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of short-course versus no androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised controlled trial

Background Previous evidence indicates that adjuvant, short-course androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improves metastasis-free survival when given with primary radiotherapy for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the value of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy is unclear. Methods RADICALS-HD was an international randomised controlled trial to test the efficacy of ADT used in combination with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to radiotherapy alone (no ADT) or radiotherapy with 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT), using monthly subcutaneous gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogue injections, daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as distant metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. Standard survival analysis methods were used, accounting for randomisation stratification factors. The trial had 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 80% to 86% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·67). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00541047. Findings Between Nov 22, 2007, and June 29, 2015, 1480 patients (median age 66 years [IQR 61–69]) were randomly assigned to receive no ADT (n=737) or short-course ADT (n=743) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 121 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 9·0 years (IQR 7·1–10·1), metastasis-free survival events were reported for 268 participants (142 in the no ADT group and 126 in the short-course ADT group; HR 0·886 [95% CI 0·688–1·140], p=0·35). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 79·2% (95% CI 75·4–82·5) in the no ADT group and 80·4% (76·6–83·6) in the short-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 121 (17%) of 737 participants in the no ADT group and 100 (14%) of 743 in the short-course ADT group (p=0·15), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Metastatic disease is uncommon following postoperative bed radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. Adding 6 months of ADT to this radiotherapy did not improve metastasis-free survival compared with no ADT. These findings do not support the use of short-course ADT with postoperative radiotherapy in this patient population

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society