Assessing cost-effectiveness of early intervention in Alzheimer's disease: An open-source modeling framework

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordIntroduction: We develop a framework to model disease progression across Alzheimer's disease (AD) and to assess the cost-effectiveness of future disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD. Methods: Using data from the US National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center, we apply survival analysis to estimate transition from predementia to AD dementia and ordered probit regression to estimate transitions across AD dementia stages. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical treatment scenario for people in MCI due to AD. Results: We present an open-access model-based decision-analytic framework. Assuming a modest DMT treatment effect in MCI, we predict extended life expectancy and a reduction in time with AD dementia. Discussion: Any future DMT for AD is expected to pose significant economic challenges across all health-care systems, and decision-analytic modeling will be required to assess costs and outcomes. Further developments are needed to inform these health policy considerations

Cost-Utility of Using Alzheimer's Disease Biomarkers in Cerebrospinal Fluid to Predict Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia

Background: Diagnostic research criteria for Alzheimer's disease support the use of biomarkers in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to improve the accuracy of the prognosis regarding progression to dementia for people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the potential incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of adding CSF biomarker testing to the standard diagnostic workup to determine the prognosis for patients with MCI. Methods: In an early technology assessment, a mathematical simulation model was built, using available evidence on added prognostic value as well as expert opinion to estimate the incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 20,000 virtual MCI patients with (intervention strategy) and without (control strategy) relying on CSF, from a health-care sector perspective and with a 5-year time horizon. Results: Adding the CSF test improved the accuracy of prognosis by 11%. This resulted in an average QALY gain of 0.046 and € 432 additional costs per patient, representing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of € 9,416. Conclusion: The results show the potential of CSF biomarkers in current practice from a health-economics perspective. This result was, however, marked by a high degree of uncertainty, and empirical research is required into the impact of a prognosis on worrying, false-positive/negative prognosis, and stigmatization

Measuring quality of life of people with predementia and dementia and their caregivers: a systematic review protocol

Introduction Dementia is the fastest growing major cause of disability globally and may have a profound impact on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of both the patient with dementia and those who care for them. This review aims to systematically identify and synthesise the measurements of HRQoL for people with, and their caregivers across the full spectrum of, dementia from its preceding stage of predementia to end of life. Methods and analysis A systematic literature review was conducted in Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online , ExcerptaMedicadataBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews , Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effect, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database and PsycINFO between January 1990 and the end of April 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study for inclusion and disagreements will be resolved by a third reviewer. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed with the Effective Public Health Practice Project quality assessment tool. HRQoL measurements will be presented separately for people with dementia and caregivers by instrument used and, when possible, HRQoL will be reported by disease type and stage of the disease. Descriptive statistics of the results will be provided. A narrative synthesis of studies will also be provided discussing differences in HRQoL measurements by instrument used to estimate it, type of dementia and disease severity. Ethics and dissemination This systematic literature review is exempt from ethics approval because the work is carried out on published documents. The findings of the review will be disseminated in a related peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences. They will also contribute to the work developed in the Real World Outcomes across the Alzheimer’s disease spectrum for better care: multimodal data access platform (ROADMAP)

Optimizing the use of expert panel reference diagnoses in diagnostic studies of multidimensional syndromes

__Abstract__ Background: In the absence of a gold standard, a panel of experts can be invited to assign a reference diagnosis for use in research. Available literature offers limited guidance on assembling and working with an expert panel for this purpose. We aimed to develop a protocol for an expert panel consensus diagnosis and evaluated its applicability in a pilot project. Methods: An adjusted Delphi method was used, which started with the assessment of clinical vignettes by 3 experts individually, followed by a consensus discussion meeting to solve diagnostic discrepancies. A panel facilitator ensured that all experts were able to express their views, and encouraged the use of argumentation to arrive at a specific diagnosis, until consensus was reached by all experts. Eleven vignettes of patients suspected of having a primary neurodegenerative disease were presented to the experts. Clinical information was provided stepwise and included medical history, neurological, physical and cognitive function, brain MRI scan, and follow-up assessments over 2 years. After the consensus discussion meeting, the procedure was evaluated by the experts. Results: The average degree of consensus for the reference diagnosis increased from 52% after individual assessment of the vignettes to 94% after the consensus discussion meeting. Average confidence in the diagnosis after individual assessment was 85%. This did not increase after the consensus discussion meeting. The process evaluation led to several recommendations for improvement of the protocol. Conclusion: A protocol for attaining a reference diagnosis based on expert panel consensus was shown feasible in research practice

Association Between Cognition, Health Related Quality of Life, and Costs in a Population at Risk for Cognitive Decline

Background: The association between health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and care costs in people at risk for cognitive decline is not well understood. Studying this association could reveal the potential benefits of increasing HRQoL and reducing care costs by improving cognition. Objective: In this exploratory data analysis we investigated the association between cognition, HRQoL utilities and costs in a well-functioning population at risk for cognitive decline. Methods: An exploratory data analysis was conducted using longitudinal 2-year data from the FINGER study (n= 1,120). A change score analysis was applied using HRQoL utilities and total medical care costs as outcome. HRQoL utilities were derived from the Short Form Health Survey-36 (SF-36). Total care costs comprised visits to a general practitioner, medical specialist, nurse, and days at hospital. Analyses were adjusted for activities of daily living (ADL) and depressive symptoms. Results: Although univariable analysis showed an association between cognition and HRQoL utilities, multivariable analysis showed no association between cognition, HRQoL utilities and total care costs. A one-unit increase in ADL limitations was associated with a -0.006 (p Conclusion: The level of cognition in people at-risk for cognitive decline does not seem to be associated with HRQoL utilities. Future research should examine the level at which cognitive decline starts to affect HRQoL and care costs. Ideally, this would be done by means of cross-validation in populations with various stages of cognitive functioning and decline.Peer reviewe

Combinations of Service Use Types of People With Early Cognitive Disorders

Objectives Understanding which persons most likely use particular combinations of service types is important as this could lead to a better understanding of care pathways. The aim of this study is to identify combinations of service use within a sample of community-dwelling people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia and identify factors related to these service use combinations. Methods A latent class analysis performed at baseline on a merged dataset (n = 530) was used to classify care recipients based on following service use types: general practitioner visits, physiotherapist visits, hospital outpatient specialist visits, emergency room visits, hospital inpatient visits with stay over, day care visits, use of domestic homecare, use of personal homecare, and informal care on (instrumental) activities of daily living. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with service use combinations using clinical characteristics of the care recipient and demographic characteristics of the care recipient and caregiver. Results Three service use classes were identified; a formal homecare class (10% of participants), an informal care class (46% of participants), and a low user class (44% of participants). Factors increasing the likelihood of being in the formal homecare class compared with the low service use class included a diagnosis of MCI or dementia, activities of daily living impairment, older age of the care recipient, and care recipient not living together with the caregiver. Conclusions Besides a diagnosis of MCI or dementia, other factors (activities of daily living impairment, age, and living situation) were associated with service use. We recommend using these factors alongside the diagnostic label for care indication