ENSO and IOD teleconnections for African ecosystems: evidence of destructive interference between climate oscillations

Rainfall and vegetation across Africa are known to resonate with the coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, the regional-scale implications of sea surface temperature variability for Africa's photosyntheis have received little focused attention, particularly in the case of IOD. Furthermore, studies exploring the interactive effects of ENSO and IOD when coincident are lacking. This analysis uses remotely sensed vegetation change plus a land surface model driven with observed meteorology to investigate how rainfall, vegetation, and photosynthesis across Africa respond to these climate oscillations. In addition to the relatively well-known ENSO forcing, the IOD induces large departures of photosynthesis across much of Africa associated with anomalies in rainfall and vegetation greenness. More importantly, sizeable independent effects can be suppressed or even reversed by destructive interferences during periods of simultaneous ENSO and IOD activity. For example, effects of positive IOD on southeastern Africa tended to dominate those of El Niño during their coincidence spanning 1997–1998, with sign reversal of El Niño's typically strong suppression of photosynthesis in this region. These findings call into question past analyses examining teleconnections to ENSO or IOD in isolation, and indicate the need to consider their simultaneous states when examining influences on hydroclimatic and ecological conditions across Africa

Neutronics, steady-state, and transient analyses for the Poland MARIA reactor for irradiation testing of LEU lead test fuel assemblies from CERCA : ANL independent verification results.

The MARIA reactor at the Institute of Atomic Energy (IAE) in Swierk (30 km SE of Warsaw) in the Republic of Poland is considering conversion from high-enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel assemblies (FA). The FA design in MARIA is rather unique; a suitable LEU FA has never been designed or tested. IAE has contracted with CERCA (the fuel supply portion of AREVA in France) to supply 2 lead test assemblies (LTA). The LTAs will be irradiated in MARIA to burnup level of at least 40% for both LTAs and to 60% for one LTA. IAE may decide to purchase additional LEU FAs for a full core conversion after the test irradiation. The Reactor Safety Committee within IAE and the National Atomic Energy Agency in Poland (PAA) must approve the LTA irradiation process. The approval will be based, in part, on IAE submitting revisions to portions of the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) which are affected by the insertion of the LTAs. (A similar process will be required for the full core conversion to LEU fuel.) The analysis required was established during working meetings between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and IAE staff during August 2006, subsequent email correspondence, and subsequent staff visits. The analysis needs to consider the current high-enriched uranium (HEU) core and 4 core configurations containing 1 and 2 LEU LTAs in various core positions. Calculations have been performed at ANL in support of the LTA irradiation. These calculations are summarized in this report and include criticality, burn-up, neutronics parameters, steady-state thermal hydraulics, and postulated transients. These calculations have been performed at the request of the IAE staff, who are performing similar calculations to be used in their SAR amendment submittal to the PAA. The ANL analysis has been performed independently from that being performed by IAE and should only be used as one step in the verification process

The Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000) : wet season campaigns

The Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000) involved two wet season and one dry season field campaigns. This paper reports on the wet season campaigns. The first was conducted at five sites along the Kalahari Transect in Zambia (Kataba Forest) and Botswana (Pandamatenga, Maun, Okwa River Crossing, Tshane) during February 2000 and concentrated primarily on characterizing the land surface with respect to exchanges of matter and energy with the atmosphere. The second, conducted in February 2001, focused on fluxes of water, gases and energy between the canopy and the atmosphere at Maun, Botswana, and at Skukuza in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Eddy covariance measurements at Skukuza and Maun were designed to collect a near-continuous record of the seasonality and inter-annual variability in savanna carbon, water and energy exchanges in representative savanna ecosystems. This paper gives brief descriptions of the sites, the measurements made, and the methods used. It highlights some preliminary results, particularly from the first campaign, and outlines the next stages of the SAFARI 2000 projec

Leveraging browse and grazing forage estimates to optimize index-based livestock insurance

African pastoralists sufer recurrent droughts that cause high livestock mortality and vulnerability to climate change. The index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) program ofers protection against drought impacts. However, the current IBLI design relying on the normalized diference vegetation index (NDVI) may pose limitation because it does not consider the mixed composition of rangelands (including herbaceous and woody plants) and the diverse feeding habits of grazers and browsers. To enhance IBLI, we assessed the efcacy of utilizing distinct browse and grazing forage estimates from woody LAI (LAIW) and herbaceous LAI (LAIH), respectively, derived from aggregate leaf area index (LAIA), as an alternative to NDVI for refned IBLI design. Using historical livestock mortality data from northern Kenya as reference ground dataset, our analysis compared two competing models for (1) aggregate forage estimates including sub-models for NDVI, LAI (LAIA); and (2) partitioned biomassmodel (LAIP) comprising LAIH and LAIW. By integrating forage estimates with ancillary environmental variables, we found that LAIP, with separate forage estimates, outperformed the aggregate models. For total livestock mortality, LAIP yielded the lowest RMSE (5.9 TLUs) and higher R2 (0.83), surpassing NDVI and LAIA models RMSE (9.3 TLUs) and R2 (0.6). A similar pattern was observed for species-specifc livestock mortality. The infuence of environmental variables across the models varied, depending on level of mortality aggregation or separation. Overall, forage availability was consistently the most infuential variable, with species-specifc models showing the diferent forage preferences in various animal types. These results suggest that deriving distinct browse and grazing forage estimates from LAIP has the potential to reduce basis risk by enhancing IBLI index accurac

Short-Term Dry Season Forage Monitoring in Rangelands and Savannas of West Africa

Dry season plant biomass is critical for livestock production and hence livelihoods in rangeland communities. We have developed a cloud-based application that employs remote sensing data to provide weekly spatially explicit information on plant vegetation cover in West Africa during the dry season (typically October-June). In this paper, we discuss the data analysis steps and results that drive the application. Linear spectral mixture analysis is used to derive endmember samples of basic landcover primitives (active/green vegetation, non-active vegetation, and bare soil) from very high-resolution imagery that spans the spatiotemporal spectrum from wet/peak-green to dry/dormant conditions in Senegal. These samples are used to train and evaluate ensemble tree models for predicting proportional cover of the same land cover primitives at 500m scale, using MODIS derived NDVI, shortwave infra-red bands 3 and 2 (SWIR3 and SWIR2), and total 15-day antecedent precipitation as predictors. Our trained models can predict the fractional cover of green vegetation, non-green vegetation and bare soil across space and time with cross-validation root-mean square errors of 12%, 15% and 9% respectively. With a weekly cadence and low latency (~2-3 weeks), the tool can also provide timely information to support local decision making in the management of critical rangeland resources

Field dependent anisotropy change in a supramolecular Mn(II)-[3x3] grid

The magnetic anisotropy of a novel Mn(II)-[3x3] grid complex was investigated by means of high-field torque magnetometry. Torque vs. field curves at low temperatures demonstrate a ground state with S > 0 and exhibit a torque step due to a field induced level-crossing at B* \approx 7.5 T, accompanied by an abrupt change of magnetic anisotropy from easy-axis to hard-axis type. These observations are discussed in terms of a spin Hamiltonian formalism.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, to be published in Phys. Rev. Let

A Role for Drylands in a Carbon Neutral World?

Drylands are a critical part of the earth system in terms of total area, socioeconomic and ecological importance. However, while drylands are known for their contribution to inter-annual atmospheric CO2 variability, they are sometimes overlooked in discussions of global carbon stocks. Here, in preparation for the November 2021 UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), we review dryland systems with emphasis on their role in current and future carbon storage, response to climate change and potential to contribute to a carbon neutral future. Current estimates of carbon in dryland soils and vegetation suggest they are significant at global scale, containing approximately 30% of global carbon in above and below-ground biomass, and surface-layer soil carbon (top 30 cm). As ecosystems that are limited by water, the drylands are vulnerable to climate change. Climate change impacts are, however, dependent on future trends in rainfall that include both drying and wetting trends at regional scales. Regional rainfall trends will initiate trends in dryland productivity, vegetation structure and soil carbon storage. However, while management of fire and herbivory can contribute to increased carbon sequestration, impacts are dependent on locally unique ecosystem responses and climate-soil-plant interactions. Similarly, while community based agroforestry initiatives have been successful in some areas, large-scale afforestation programs are logistically infeasible and sometimes ecologically inappropriate at larger scales. As climate changes, top-down prescriptive measures designed to increase carbon storage should be avoided in favour of locally-adapted approaches that balance carbon management priorities with local livelihoods, ecosystem function, biodiversity and cultural, social and economic priorities

Shelf life extension of ambient-stored banana cake using banana powder

Maintaining the quality of bakery products is vital for consumers’ health and preference. Since bakery products are intermediate-moisture foods, spoilage by moulds is among the major causes of shelf life reduction. In the present work, the effects of substituting banana purée with banana powder to extend the shelf life of banana cakes were investigated over a ten-day storage period. Three types of banana cake were made using banana purée (control), laboratory-formulated powder (LP), and commercial powder (CP). Results indicated a significant difference in moisture contents and water activities between all treatments in which LP and CP exhibited mould growth at day 9 compared to day 5 in control. For fungal load, LP yielded the lowest CFU by the end of storage period. Although significant differences in texture and appearance were noted between all treatments, untrained sensory panellists scored LP as acceptable. Further works are therefore warranted to assess LP’s commercialisation potentials

The sensitivity of carbon exchanges in Great Plains grasslands to precipitation variability

In the Great Plains, grassland carbon dynamics differ across broad gradients of precipitation and temperature, yet finer-scale variation in these variables may also affect grassland processes. Despite the importance of grasslands, there is little information on how fine-scale relationships compare between them regionally. We compared grassland C exchanges, energy partitioning and precipitation variability in eight sites in the eastern and western Great Plains using eddy covariance and meteorological data. During our study, both eastern and western grasslands varied between an average net carbon sink and a net source. Eastern grasslands had a moderate vapor pressure deficit (VPD = 0.95 kPa) and high growing season gross primary productivity (GPP = 1010 ± 218 g C m−2 yr−1). Western grasslands had a growing season with higher VPD (1.43 kPa) and lower GPP (360 ± 127 g C m−2 yr−1). Western grasslands were sensitive to precipitation at daily timescales, whereas eastern grasslands were sensitive at monthly and seasonal timescales. Our results support the expectation that C exchanges in these grasslands differ as a result of varying precipitation regimes. Because eastern grasslands are less influenced by short-term variability in rainfall than western grasslands, the effects of precipitation change are likely to be more predictable in eastern grasslands because the timescales of variability that must be resolved are relatively longer. We postulate increasing regional heterogeneity in grassland C exchanges in the Great Plains in coming decades.Konza Prairie Biological Station. Grant Number: DEB-0823341U.S. Department of Energy. Grant Number: DE-AC02-05CH11231U.S. Department of Agriculture. Grant Number: 2014-67003-22070DOE-NIGEC. Grant Number: 26-6223-7230-002Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery. Grant Number: RGPIN-2014-05882Sevilleta LTERNAS

Sensitivity Analysis of the GEMS Soil Organic Carbon Model to Land Cover Land Use Classification Uncertainties Under Different Climate Scenarios in Senegal

Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs