Assessing methods for developing crop forecasting in the Iberian Peninsula

Seasonal climate prediction may allow predicting crop yield to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate variability and its extremes. It has been already demonstrated that seasonal climate predictions at European (or Iberian) scale from ensembles of global coupled climate models have some skill (Palmer et al., 2004)

Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop models in Iberian Peninsula

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into agricultural production forecasts could help to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. In this study, we use seasonal rainfall forecasts and crop models to improve predictability of wheat yield in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Additionally, we estimate economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecast

On the Utility of Agronomic Monsoon Onset Definitions for Rainfed Aman Rice in Bangladesh

The monsoon-season ‘aman' rice crop contributes approximately 40% of total rice production in Bangladesh, where per-capita rice consumption rates are among the highest in the world. Aman rice is primarily rainfed and relies largely on monsoon rainfall, more specifically monsoon onset and withdrawal. Aman rice farmers’ perception on the monsoon onset for the preparation of seedling does not necessarily coincide with typical meteorological onset definitions and varies with different locations. Therefore, agronomic definitions of monsoon onset, rather than meteorological definitions are needed in order to produce climate forecast information that can better support smallholder farmers’ decision making, and the definitions should be tailored for different regions. In this study, we analyzed historical daily rainfall from three regional weather stations across a north-south gradient in Bangladesh where rainfed transplanted rice is the dominant summer crop. We defined threshold numbers including the duration of the initial wet spell, amount of rainfall received during the initial wet spell, length of dry spell during the monsoon, and the maximum amount of rainfall received during the dry spell to develop a set of actionable and region-specific agronomic onset definitions. Because transplanting dates can affect crop productivity, a region-specific onset definition was evaluated in terms of crop model simulated attainable yields in comparison with the results of (a) conventional meteorological onset defined by the quantity of rainfall received and (b) static onset date definitions. When year-to-year varying agronomic onset definition was used predicted attainable yields were higher than those derived from traditional fixed onset date in the case of fully rainfed condition. If irrigation is available at the time of transplanting, however, simulated yields did not show distinctive differences between the different onset methods, underscoring how irrigation can be used as a climate-smart adaptive strategy to cope with monsoon variability. Our tailored agronomic definitions of monsoon onset can be used to assist rainfed rice farmers in choosing more favourable dates for the establishment of seedbeds and transplanting, especially when more advanced seasonal or sub- seasonal forecasts are available in addition to real-time and high-resolution rainfall monitoring

Dysnatremia, its correction, and mortality in patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy: a prospective observational study

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Abstract Background Although dysnatremia has been reported to be correlated with mortality risk, this issue remains unresolved in patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Furthermore, it has not been determined whether change in or correction of sodium is related to mortality risk in this subset. Methods A total of 569 patients were prospectively enrolled at the start of CRRT between May 2010 and September 2013. The patients were divided into 5 groups: normonatremia (135–145 mmol/L), mild hyponatremia (131.1–134.9 mmol/L), moderate to severe hyponatremia (115.4–131.0 mmol/L), mild hypernatremia (145.1–148.4 mmol/L), and moderate to severe hypernatremia (148.5–166.0 mmol/L). The non-linear relationship between sodium and mortality was initially explored. Subsequently, the odds ratios (ORs) for 30-day mortality were calculated after adjustment of multiple covariates. Results The relationship between baseline sodium and mortality was U-shaped. The mild hyponatremia, moderate to severe hyponatremia, and moderate to severe hypernatremia groups had greater ORs for mortality (1.65, 1.91, and 2.32, respectively) than the normonatremia group (all P values < 0.05). However, later sodium levels (24 and 72 h after CRRT) did not predict 30-day mortality. Furthermore, the changes in sodium over 24 or 72 h, including the appropriate correction of dysnatremia, did not show any relationships with mortality, irrespective of baseline sodium level. Conclusions Sodium level at the start of CRRT was a strong predictor of mortality. However, changes in sodium level and the degree of sodium correction were not associated with the mortality risk in the patients with CRRT

Re-prioritizing climate services for agriculture: Insights from Bangladesh

Considerable progress has been made in establishing climate service capabilities over the last few decades, but the gap between the resulting services and national needs remains large. Using climate services for agriculture in Bangladesh as a case study example, we highlight mismatches between local needs on the one hand, and international initiatives that have focused largely on prediction on the other, and we make suggestions for addressing such mismatches in similar settings. To achieve greater benefit at the national level, there should be a stronger focus on addressing important preliminaries for building services. These preliminaries include the identification of priorities, the definition of responsibilities and expectations, the development of climate services skills, and the construction of a high-quality and easily usable national climate record. Once appropriate institutional, human resources and data infrastructure are in place, the implementation of a climate monitoring and watch system would form a more logical basis for initial climate service implementation than attempting to promote sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasting, especially when and where the inherent predictability is limited at best. When and where forecasting at these scales is viable, efforts should focus on defining and predicting high-impact events important for decision making, rather than on simple seasonal aggregates that often correlate poorly with outcomes. Some such forecasts may be more skillful than the 3- to 4-month seasonal aggregates that have become the internationally adopted standard. By establishing a firm foundation for climate services within National Meteorological Services, there is a greater chance that individual climate service development initiatives will be sustainable after their respective project lifetimes

Urinary adiponectin and albuminuria in non-diabetic hypertensive patients: an analysis of the ESPECIAL trial

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.Abstract Background Although adiponectin levels have been reported to be correlated with albuminuria, this issue remains unresolved in non-diabetic hypertensive subjects, particularly when urinary adiponectin is considered. Methods Urinary adiponectin levels were examined using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 229 participants. who used olmesartan as a hypertensive agent. Their albuminuria levels were measured for 16 weeks after randomization and initiation of conventional or intensive diet education. Linear or logistic regression models were applied, as appropriate, to explore the relationship with albuminuria itself or its response after the intervention. Results Urinary adiponectin levels were positively related to baseline albuminuria level (r = 0.529). After adjusting for several covariates, the adiponectin level was associated with the albuminuria level (β = 0.446). Among the 159 subjects with baseline macroalbuminuria, the risk of consistent macroalbuminuria (> 300 mg/day) at 16 weeks was higher in the 3rd tertile of adiponectin than in the 1st tertile (odds ratio = 6.9), despite diet education. In contrast, among all subjects, the frequency of the normoalbuminuria achievement (< 30 mg/day) at 16 weeks was higher in the 1st tertile than in the 3rd tertile (odds ratio = 13.0). Conclusions Urinary adiponectin may be a useful biomarker for albuminuria or its response after treatment in non-diabetic hypertensive patients

TRAF6 Mediates IL-1β/LPS-Induced Suppression of TGF-β Signaling through Its Interaction with the Type III TGF-β Receptor

Transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) is an important anti-inflammatory cytokine that modulates and resolves inflammatory responses. Recent studies have demonstrated that inflammation enhances neoplastic risk and potentiates tumor progression. In the evolution of cancer, pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-1β must overcome the anti-inflammatory effects of TGF-β to boost pro-inflammatory responses in epithelial cells. Here we show that IL-1β or Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) suppresses TGF-β-induced anti-inflammatory signaling in a NF-κB-independent manner. TRAF6, a key molecule in IL-1β signaling, mediates this suppressive effect through interaction with the type III TGF-β receptor (TβRIII), which is TGF-β-dependent and requires type I TGF-β receptor (TβRI) kinase activity. TβRI phosphorylates TβRIII at residue S829, which promotes the TRAF6/TβRIII interaction and consequent sequestration of TβRIII from the TβRII/TβRI complex. Our data indicate that IL-1β enhances the pro-inflammatory response by suppressing TGF-βsignaling through TRAF6-mediated sequestration of TβRIII, which may be an important contributor to the early stages of tumor progression

Effect of shared decision-making education on physicians’ perceptions and practices of end-of-life care in Korea

Background Evidence of the ethical appropriateness and clinical benefits of shared decision-making (SDM) are accumulating. This study aimed to not only identify physicians’ perspectives on SDM, and practices related to end-of-life care in particular, but also to gauge the effect of SDM education on physicians in Korea. Methods A 14-item questionnaire survey using a modified Delphi process was delivered to nephrologists and internal medicine trainees at 17 university hospitals. Results A total of 309 physicians completed the survey. Although respondents reported that 69.9% of their practical decisions were made using SDM, 59.9% reported that it is not being applied appropriately. Only 12.3% of respondents had received education on SDM as part of their training. The main obstacles to appropriate SDM were identified as lack of time (46.0%), educational materials and tools (29.4%), and education on SDM (24.3%). Although only a few respondents had received training on SDM, the proportion of those who thought they were using SDM appropriately in actual practice was high; the proportion of those who chose lack of time and education as factors that hindered the proper application of SDM was low. Conclusion The majority of respondents believed that SDM was not being implemented properly in Korea, despite its use in actual practice. To improve the effectiveness of SDM in the Korean medical system, appropriate training programs and supplemental policies that guarantee sufficient application time are required

25th annual computational neuroscience meeting: CNS-2016

The same neuron may play different functional roles in the neural circuits to which it belongs. For example, neurons in the Tritonia pedal ganglia may participate in variable phases of the swim motor rhythms [1]. While such neuronal functional variability is likely to play a major role the delivery of the functionality of neural systems, it is difficult to study it in most nervous systems. We work on the pyloric rhythm network of the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion (STG) [2]. Typically network models of the STG treat neurons of the same functional type as a single model neuron (e.g. PD neurons), assuming the same conductance parameters for these neurons and implying their synchronous firing [3, 4]. However, simultaneous recording of PD neurons shows differences between the timings of spikes of these neurons. This may indicate functional variability of these neurons. Here we modelled separately the two PD neurons of the STG in a multi-neuron model of the pyloric network. Our neuron models comply with known correlations between conductance parameters of ionic currents. Our results reproduce the experimental finding of increasing spike time distance between spikes originating from the two model PD neurons during their synchronised burst phase. The PD neuron with the larger calcium conductance generates its spikes before the other PD neuron. Larger potassium conductance values in the follower neuron imply longer delays between spikes, see Fig. 17.Neuromodulators change the conductance parameters of neurons and maintain the ratios of these parameters [5]. Our results show that such changes may shift the individual contribution of two PD neurons to the PD-phase of the pyloric rhythm altering their functionality within this rhythm. Our work paves the way towards an accessible experimental and computational framework for the analysis of the mechanisms and impact of functional variability of neurons within the neural circuits to which they belong

Soil moisture data assimilation at multiple scales and estimation of representative field scale soil moisture characteristics

Soil moisture is a key variable in understanding the hydrologic processes and energy fluxes at the land surface. Therefore, accurate prediction of soil moisture in the vadose zone benefits irrigation planning and crop management, flooding and drought prediction, water quality management, climate change forecasts, and weather prediction. The three objectives of this study are to: (1) investigate the effects of surface soil moisture data assimilation on hydrological responses at the field scale using in situ soil moisture measurements, (2) explore the effect of surface soil moisture data assimilation on each hydrologic process in a simulation model, including the effect of spatially varying inputs on the potential capability of surface soil moisture assimilation at the watershed scale, and (3) link two different scales of soil moisture estimates by upscaling single point measurements to field averages. First, a well-proven data assimilation technique, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), is applied to a field scale water quality model, the Root Zone Water Quality Model, with in situ soil moisture data from two agricultural fields in Indiana. Through daily update, the EnKF improves all statistical results compared to the direct insertion method and model results without assimilation for the 5 cm and 20 cm depths while less improvement is achieved for deeper layers. Optimal update interval and ensemble size are also tested for the operational potential of data assimilation. This study demonstrates the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve water quality and crop yield simulation, as well as, soil moisture estimation at the agricultural field scale. Second, the EnKF is coupled with a watershed scale, semi-distributed hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Results show that daily assimilation of surface soil moisture with the EnKF improves model predictions of almost all hydrological processes. However, the EnKF does not produce as much of a significant improvement in streamflow predictions as compared to soil moisture estimates in the presence of large precipitation errors and due to the limitations of the infiltration-runoff model mechanism. Distributed errors of the soil water content show effects of spatially varying inputs such as soil and landuse types on the assimilation results. Results from this study suggest that soil moisture update through data assimilation can be a supplementary way to overcome the errors created by limited or inaccurate rainfall data. Proper linkage of soil moisture estimates across different scales of observations and model predictions is essential for the validation of remotely-sensed soil moisture products, as well as the successful application of data assimilation techniques. Thus, this study also examines different upscaling methods to transform point measurements to field averages in representing small agricultural watersheds (∼ 2 ha). The cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching approach is found to provide best estimates of field average soil moisture out of several statistical methods. Tests for temporal and spatial (horizontal and vertical) transferability of the upscaling equations indicate that they are transferable in space, but not in time. Rainfall characteristics and crop types are most likely major factors affecting the success of the transferability. In addition, the CDF matching approach is found to be an effective method to estimate spatial soil moisture variance from single point measurements. Overall, the results presented in this work can be utilized to improve applications of soil moisture data assimilation at field and watershed scales and better evaluate the scaling behavior of soil moisture