The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Hałupka.Peer reviewe

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to repro- ductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young

Overlapping breeding attempts in the Bearded Tit (Panurus biarmicus)

Abstract Background Overlapping of successive broods is a relatively rare breeding strategy that allows individuals to make effective use of the available reproductive window. Methods In this paper we analyse the occurrence of overlapping breeding attempts in the Bearded Tit (Panurus biarmicus), a non-migratory passerine species, whose peripheral populations vary enormously in numbers. Results The colour-ringed population of Bearded Tits was studied in western Poland in 1990, 2012–2013 and 2015–2017. Overlapping broods were found only during years with low population sizes and low densities (1.2–3.6 pairs per 10 ha), and pairs with such broods constituted 11.1–20%. In years with higher population densities (8.7–13.44 pairs per 10 ha) overlapping broods were not recorded. Pairs started building the next (overlapping) nests when their young were 3–10 days old. They divided their duties while rearing two broods simultaneously: females were occupied only with the new clutch, while males, in contrast to other species with brood overlap, not only fed the young from an earlier brood, but also helped the females with the building of a new nest and incubation of a new clutch. Conclusions Laying overlapping clutches enabled pairs to shorten their average breeding cycle by 15–21 days and produce more offspring. It is possible that overlapping breeding attempts is a density-dependant strategy, enabling the population to restore after severe declines, however, alternative explanations are also possible. Future studies are needed to better understand mechanisms underlying the occurrence of this phenomenon

Coping with shifting nest predation refuges by European reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus.

Predation, the most important source of nest mortality in altricial birds, has been a subject of numerous studies during past decades. However, the temporal dynamics between changing predation pressures and parental responses remain poorly understood. We analysed characteristics of 524 nests of European reed warblers monitored during six consecutive breeding seasons in the same area, and found some support for the shifting nest predation refuge hypothesis. Nest site characteristics were correlated with nest fate, but a nest with the same nest-site attributes could be relatively safe in one season and vulnerable to predation in another. Thus nest predation refuges were ephemeral and there was no between-season consistency in nest predation patterns. Reed warblers that lost their first nests in a given season did not disperse farther for the subsequent reproductive attempt, compared to successful individuals, but they introduced more changes to their second nest sites. In subsequent nests, predation risk remained constant for birds that changed nest-site characteristics, but increased for those that did not. At the between-season temporal scale, individual birds did not perform better with age in terms of reducing nest predation risk. We conclude that the experience acquired in previous years may not be useful, given that nest predation refuges are not stable

Daily survival rates (expressed as percentages ± SE; numbers of nest-days given in brackets) of reed warbler nests at three stages of the breeding cycle.

<p>Daily survival rates (expressed as percentages ± SE; numbers of nest-days given in brackets) of reed warbler nests at three stages of the breeding cycle.</p

Kaplan-Meier survival curves for nests in 2006–2011 breeding seasons.

<p>Number of nests included in the analysis is given in parentheses next to seasons' labels. Day 1 is the day of laying of the 1st egg. There was a significant variation between seasons (log-rank test: Χ²₅ = 12.6, p = 0.027).</p

Point biserial correlations between nest-site characteristics and nests' fates.

<p>Positive coefficients indicate that relatively higher values of the trait were correlated with the higher incidence of nest predation. Only the nests found at the egg-laying stage were included.</p

Survival during the breeding season : nest stage, parental sex, and season advancement affect reed warbler survival

Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus), mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males) were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941–0.996) than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727–0.937). Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August), while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male) nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898–0.958), when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00–1.000), when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest) may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.12 page(s

Cox PH models explaining nest survival in 2006–2011 breeding seasons.

<p>The likelihood ratio test verifies the general hypothesis that variables in the model explain a significant proportion of variance in survival time. The concordance coefficient measures predictive power (the higher the value, the better; 0.5 and lower values indicate that the model's performance is not better than guessing).</p><p>Cox PH models explaining nest survival in 2006–2011 breeding seasons.</p

Hazard ratios of the 1st nests of 26 females in two subsequent breeding seasons.

<p>Points representing nests of the same female are connected with lines (paired-samples exact Wilcoxon test: V = 175, p = 0.99). Hazard ratio of the nest was calculated in relation to average values of nest site characteristics in the given season, using a respective Cox PH models presented in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115456#pone-0115456-t002" target="_blank"><b>Table 2</b></a> (data from 2006 and 2009 were not included).</p