On the use of a Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling (MLHS) approach in the estimation of a Mixed Logit model for vehicle choice

Quasi-random number sequences have been used extensively for many years in the simulation of integrals that do not have a closed-form expression, such as Mixed Logit and Multinomial Probit choice probabilities. Halton sequences are one example of such quasi-random number sequences, and various types of Halton sequences, including standard, scrambled, and shuffled versions, have been proposed and tested in the context of travel demand modeling. In this paper, we propose an alternative to Halton sequences, based on an adapted version of Latin Hypercube Sampling. These alternative sequences, like scrambled and shuffled Halton sequences, avoid the undesirable correlation patterns that arise in standard Halton sequences. However, they are easier to create than scrambled or shuffled Halton sequences. They also provide more uniform coverage in each dimension than any of the Halton sequences. A detailed analysis, using a 16-dimensional Mixed Logit model for choice between alternative-fuelled vehicles in California, was conducted to compare the performance of the different types of draws. The analysis shows that, in this application, the Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling (MLHS) outperforms each type of Halton sequence. This greater accuracy combined with the greater simplicity make the MLHS method an appealing approach for simulation of travel demand models and simulation-based models in general

On a Tree and a Path with no Geometric Simultaneous Embedding

Two graphs $G_1=(V,E_1)$ and $G_2=(V,E_2)$ admit a geometric simultaneous embedding if there exists a set of points P and a bijection M: P -> V that induce planar straight-line embeddings both for $G_1$ and for $G_2$. While it is known that two caterpillars always admit a geometric simultaneous embedding and that two trees not always admit one, the question about a tree and a path is still open and is often regarded as the most prominent open problem in this area. We answer this question in the negative by providing a counterexample. Additionally, since the counterexample uses disjoint edge sets for the two graphs, we also negatively answer another open question, that is, whether it is possible to simultaneously embed two edge-disjoint trees. As a final result, we study the same problem when some constraints on the tree are imposed. Namely, we show that a tree of depth 2 and a path always admit a geometric simultaneous embedding. In fact, such a strong constraint is not so far from closing the gap with the instances not admitting any solution, as the tree used in our counterexample has depth 4.Comment: 42 pages, 33 figure

Teleradiology usage and user satisfaction with the telemedicine system operated by Médecins Sans Frontières

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) began a pilot trial of store-and-forward telemedicine in 2010, initially operating separate networks in English, French, and Spanish; these were merged into a single, multilingual platform in 2013. We reviewed the pattern of teleradiology usage on the MSF telemedicine platform in the 4-year period from April 2010. In total, 564 teleradiology cases were submitted from 22 different countries. A total of 1114 files were uploaded with the 564 cases, the majority being of type JPEG (n = 1081, 97%). The median file size was 938 kb (interquartile range, IQR 163-1659). A panel of 14 radiologists was available to report cases, but most (90%) were reported by only 4 radiologists. The median radiologist response time was 6.1 h (IQR 3.0-20). A user satisfaction survey was sent to 29 users in the last 6 months of the study. There was a 28% response rate. Most respondents found the radiologist's advice helpful and all of them stated that the advice assisted in clarification of a diagnosis. Although some MSF sites made substantial use of the system for teleradiology, there is considerable potential for expansion. More promotion of telemedicine may be needed at different levels of the organization to increase engagement of staff

QSOs Associated with Messier 82

The starburst / AGN galaxy M82 was studied by Dahlem, Weaver and Heckman using X-ray data from ROSAT and ASCA, as part of their X-ray survey of edge-on starburst galaxies. They found seventeen unresolved hard-X-ray sources around M82, in addition to its strong nuclear source, and other X-rays within the main body of M82. We have measured optical point sources at these positions, and have obtained redshifts of six candidates at the Keck I 10-m telescope, using the low-resolution imaging spectrograph (LRIS). All six are highly compact optical and X-ray objects with redshifts ranging from 0.111 to 1.086. They all show emission lines. The three with the highest redshifts are clearly QSOs. The others with lower redshifts may either be QSOs or compact emission-line galaxies. In addition to these six there are nine QSOs lying very close to M82 which were discovered many years ago. There is no difference between optical spectra of these latter QSOs, only two of which are known to be X-ray sources, and the X-ray emitting QSOs. The redshifts of all fifteen range between 0.111 and 2.05. The large number of QSOs and their apparent association with ejected matter from M82 suggest that they are physically associated with the galaxy, and have large intrinsic redshift components. If this is correct, the absolute magnitudes lie in the range -8 < M_v < -10. Also we speculate that the luminous variable X-ray source which has been detected by Chandra in the main body of M82 some 9 arcseconds from the center is another QSO in the process of ejection from the nucleus, and propose some observational tests of this hypothesis.Comment: 16 pages aastex, 3 eps figures, accepted for publication on Ap

Widespread tephra dispersal and ignimbrite emplacement from a subglacial volcano (Torfajökull, Iceland)

The tephra dispersal mechanisms of rhyolitic glaciovolcanic eruptions are little known, but can be investigated through the correlation of eruptive products across multiple depositional settings. Using geochemistry and geochronology, we correlate a regionally important Pleistocene tephra horizon—the rhyolitic component of North Atlantic Ash Zone II (II-RHY-1)—and the Thórsmörk Ignimbrite with rhyolitic tuyas at Torfajökull volcano, Iceland. The eruption breached an ice mass >400 m thick, leading to the widespread dispersal of II-RHY-1 across the North Atlantic and the Greenland ice sheet. Locally, pyroclastic density currents traveled across the ice surface, depositing the variably welded Thórsmörk Ignimbrite beyond the ice margin and ~30 km from source. The widely dispersed products of this eruption represent a valuable isochronous tie line between terrestrial, marine, and ice-core paleoenvironmental records. Using the tephra horizon, estimates of ice thickness and extent derived from the eruption deposits can be directly linked to the regional climate archive, which records the eruption at the onset of Greenland Stadial 15.2

Evaluation of a chest radiograph reading and recording system for tuberculosis in a HIV-positive cohort.

Aim To assess the impact of introducing a chest radiograph reading and recording system (CRRS) with a short training session, on the accuracy and inter-reader variability of tuberculosis (TB) interpretation of chest radiographs (CXRs) by a group of non-expert readers in a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive cohort. Materials and methods A set of 139 CXRs was reviewed by a group of eight physicians pre- and post-intervention at two clinics in Shan State, Myanmar, providing HIV/TB diagnosis and treatment services. The results were compared against the consensus of expert radiologists for accuracy. Results Overall accuracy was similar pre- and post-intervention for most physicians with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve difference of 0.02 (95% confidence interval: –0.03, 0.07). The overall agreement among physicians was poor pre- and post-intervention (Fleiss κ=0.35 and κ=0.29 respectively). The assessment of agreement for specific disease patterns associated with active TB in HIV-infected patients showed that for intrinsically subtle findings, the agreement was generally poor but better for the more intrinsically obvious disease patterns: pleural effusion (Cohen’s kappa range = 0.37–0.67) and milliary nodular pattern (Cohen’s kappa range = 0.25–0.52). Conclusion This study demonstrated limited impact of the introduction of a CRRS on CXR accuracy and agreement amongst non-expert readers. The role in which CXRs are used for TB diagnosis in a HIV-positive cohort in similar clinical contexts should be reviewed

Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of mass drug administration compared to school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy for hookworm control in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Background: School-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), the main strategy for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) control, excludes other at-risk populations including adults and preschool children. Mass drug administration (MDA), covering all age groups, would bring additional health benefits but also requires greater investment. This cost survey and cost-effectiveness analysis compared MDA with school-based targeted PC for STH control in Dak Lak, Vietnam, where STH are endemic. Methods: A cost survey was conducted in 2020 to estimate the total and per person economic and financial cost of each strategy. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for uncertainty in cost estimates. The primary effectiveness measure was hookworm-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and secondary measures were hookworm infection-years averted and moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years averted. A Markov model was used to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MDA compared to school-based targeted PC using a government payer perspective and a ten-year time horizon. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed. Costs are reported in 2020 USD ($). Findings: The economic cost per person was$0.27 for MDA and $0.43 for school-based targeted PC. MDA in Dak Lak will cost$472,000 per year, while school-based targeted PC will cost $117,000. Over 10 years, MDA is estimated to avert an additional 121,465 DALYs; 4,019,262 hookworm infection-years, and 765,844 moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years compared to school-based targeted PC. The ICER was$28.55 per DALY averted; $0.87 per hookworm infection-years averted, and$4.54 per moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years averted. MDA was cost-effective in all PSA iterations. Interpretation: In areas where hookworm predominates and adults suffer a significant burden of infection, MDA is cost effective compared to school based targeted PC and is the best strategy to achieve global targets. \</p

New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of the Antrim Plateau Volcanics, Australia: clarifying an age for the eruptive phase of the Kalkarindji continental flood basalt province

The Kalkarindji flood basalt province of northern Australia erupted in the mid-Cambrian. Today the province consists of scattered volcanic and intrusive suites, the largest being the Antrim Plateau Volcanics (APV) in Northern Territory. Accurate dating of Kalkarindji has proved challenging with previous studies focused on minor volcanics and intrusive dykes in Northern Territory and Western Australia. These previously published data, corrected to the same decay constants, range from 512.8 to 509.6 ± 2.5 Ma [2σ], placing Kalkarindji in apparent synchronicity with the Cambrian Stage 4–5 biotic crisis at 510 ± 1 Ma. This study utilises 40Ar/39Ar dating of basalts from the APV to accurately date the major volcanic eruptions in this province. Results yield an age of 508.0–498.3 ± 5.5 Ma [2σ], indicating the APV is younger than the intrusives. These dates allude to a relative timing discrepancy, where intrusive activity in the North Australian Craton preceded the eruption of the APV as the last magmatic activity in the region. The determination of these largest eruptions to be later than 510 Ma, effectively disassociates Kalkarindji lavas from being a major cause of the 510 Ma biotic crisis, but cannot definitively discount any deleterious effects on the fragile Cambrian ecosystem