Report On The Workshop ‘Global Modelling Of Biodiversity And Ecosystem Services’

A three-day workshop on ‘Global Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’, was held in the Hague, Netherlands, from 24th to 26th June 2019. The workshop, attended by 35 modelling and scenario-building experts, was organised on behalf of the former IPBES 1 expert group on scenarios and models of the first IPBES work programme by its interim technical support unit, and hosted by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The workshop drew on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-building exercise initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models, and other biodiversity modelling initiatives such as the ISIMIP project 2 working on adding biodiversity to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios framework, the'bending the curve'initiative 3 led by IIASA 4 and WWF 5, and GEOBON 6 working on modelling Essential Biodiversity Variables. The workshop was a step towards coordinating across biodiversity modelling initiatives, to build on each other’s work, and to seek synergies for the production of innovative scenarios on biodiversity and ecosystem services to inform the post-2020 agenda of the Convention on Biological Diversity, as well as the Sustainable Development Goal

The living infinite: Envisioning futures for transformed human-nature relationships on the high seas

We find ourselves at a critical crossroads for the future governance of the high seas, but the perceived remoteness of the global ocean creates a psychological barrier for people to engage with it. Given challenges of overexploitation, inequitable access and other sustainability and equity concerns, current ocean governance mechanisms are not fit-for-purpose. This decade offers opportunities for direct impact on ocean governance, however, triggering a global transformation on how we use and protect the half of our planet requires a concerted effort that is guided by shared values and principles across regions and sectors. The aim of the series of workshops outlined in this paper, was to undertake a futures thinking process that could use the Nature Futures Framework as a mechanism to bring more transformative energy into how humans conceptualise the high seas and therefore how we aim to govern the ocean. We found that engaging with the future through science fiction narratives allowed a more radical appreciation of what could be and infusing science with artistic elements can inspire audiences beyond academia. Thus, creative endeavours of co-production that promote and encourage imagination to address current challenges should be considered as important tools in the science-policy interface, also as a way to elicit empathetic responses. This workshop series was a first, and hopefully promising, step towards generating a more creative praxis in how we imagine and then act for a better future for the high seas

Working group on ecosystem assessment of Western European shelf seas (WGEAWESS)

The ICES Working Group on Ecosystem Assessment of Western European Shelf Seas (WGEA-WESS) aims to provide high quality science in support to holistic, adaptive, evidence-based man-agement in the Celtic seas, Bay of Biscay and Iberian coast regions. The group works towards developing integrated ecosystem assessments for both the (i) Celtic Seas and (ii) Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast which are summarized in the Ecosystem Overviews (EOs) advice products that were recently updated. Integrated Trend Analysis (ITA) were performed for multiple sub-ecoregions and used to develop an understanding of ecosystem responses to pressures at varying spatial scales. Ecosystem models (primarily Ecopath with Ecosim; EwE) were developed and identified for fisheries and spatial management advice. The updated Celtic Seas EO represents a large step forward for EOs, with the inclusion of novel sections on climate change, foodweb and productivity, the first application of the new guidelines for building the conceptual diagram, inclusion of socio-economic indicators, and progress made toward complying with the Transparent Assessment Framework (TAF). We highlight ongoing issues relevant to the development and communication of EO conceptual diagrams. A common methodology using dynamic factor analysis (DFA) was used to perform ITA in a comparable way for seven subregions. This was supported by the design and compilation of the first standardized cross-regional dataset. A comparison of the main trends evidenced among subregions over the period 1993–2020 was conducted and will be published soon. A list of available and developing EWE models for the region was also generated. Here, we re-port on the advances in temporal and spatial ecosystem modelling, such as their capacity to model the impacts of sector activities (e.g. renewables and fisheries) and quantify foodweb indi-cators. We also reflect on model quality assessment with the key run of the Irish sea EwE model. The group highlighted the hurdles and gaps in current models in support of EBM, such as the choice of a relevant functional, spatial, and temporal scales and the impacts of model structure on our capacity to draw comparisons from models of different regions. The group aims to ad-dress these issues in coming years and identify routes for ecosystem model derived information into ICES advice.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefts essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative refects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifcally, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures

Modeling the trophic dynamics of an exploited Mediterranean ecosystem : the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’améliorer la compréhension du fonctionnement et de la structure trophique du golfe de Gabès en Tunisie. Afin de concilier exigences écologiques et exploitation des ressources marines, différents modèles écosystémiques ont été développés pour étudier sa dynamique trophique et contribuer à la réflexion sur la mise en place de plans de gestion. Un modèle trophique d’équilibre de masse « Ecospace » a été construit afin d’évaluer les conséquences écosystémiques de différentes mesures de gestion. Les résultats des simulations ont permis d’explorer les interactions entre la pêche côtière et la pêche au chalut benthique et d’identifier des zones où les mesures de gestion sont effectives. Un modèle end-to-end a également été appliqué pour expliciter la dynamique des espèces considérées, depuis le forçage climatique jusqu'à la pêche. Cette approche de modélisation consiste à forcer le modèle individu-centré « OSMOSE » par un modèle biogéochimique « Eco3MMed ». Ce modèle a permis d’établir une représentation cohérente du réseau trophique et de simuler des scénarios de gestion théoriques de mise en réserve. Le modèle end-to-end a également été utilisé pour étudier la sensibilité d’un ensemble d’indicateurs écologiques à la pression de pêche. Les résultats ont révélé que les indicateurs de taille sont les plus adaptés pour faire le suivi de l’impact de la pêche dans le golfe de Gabès. Au final, une approche comparative entre plusieurs écosystèmes méditerranéens a été mise en place avec le modèle EcoTroph pour comparer leurs structures trophiques et explorer les effets de plusieurs niveaux d’exploitation par l’analyse de leurs spectres trophiques.The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of trophic structure and functioning of the gulf of Gabes in Tunisia. In order to reconcile environmental concerns and exploitation of marine resources, different ecosystem models have been developed to study the ecosystem dynamics and contribute to the discussion on the implementation of management plans. A spatial and temporal dynamic model “Ecospace” was built to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of different management measures based on scenarios derived from the current regulation. The results of simulations allowed to investigate the interactions between coastal and benthic trawl fishing and to identify areas where management measures are effective. An end-to-end model has been applied to the gulf of Gabes ecosystem to represent the dynamics of 11 high trophic level species, from climate forcing to fishing.This modelling approach consists in forcing the individual-based model "OSMOSE" by a biogeochemical model "ECO3M-Med". This model allowed to establish a coherent representation of the food web and simulate theoretical management scenarios of spatial fishing closure. The end-to-end model has also been used to study the sensitivity of a set of ecological indicators to fishing pressure. The simulation of different levels of fishing mortality showed that size indicators were the most relevant to monitor the impact of fishing in the gulf of Gabes. Finally, a comparative approach between several Mediterranean ecosystems was applied using the EcoTroph model to compare their trophic structures and explore the effects of different levels of fishing pressure through the analysis of their trophic spectra

Modélisations de la dynamique trophique d'un écosystème Méditerranéen exploité : le Golfe de Gabès (Tunisie)

The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of trophic structure and functioning of the gulf of Gabes in Tunisia. In order to reconcile environmental concerns and exploitation of marine resources, different ecosystem models have been developed to study the ecosystem dynamics and contribute to the discussion on the implementation of management plans. A spatial and temporal dynamic model “Ecospace” was built to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of different management measures based on scenarios derived from the current regulation. The results of simulations allowed to investigate the interactions between coastal and benthic trawl fishing and to identify areas where management measures are effective. An end-to-end model has been applied to the gulf of Gabes ecosystem to represent the dynamics of 11 high trophic level species, from climate forcing to fishing.This modelling approach consists in forcing the individual-based model "OSMOSE" by a biogeochemical model "ECO3M-Med". This model allowed to establish a coherent representation of the food web and simulate theoretical management scenarios of spatial fishing closure. The end-to-end model has also been used to study the sensitivity of a set of ecological indicators to fishing pressure. The simulation of different levels of fishing mortality showed that size indicators were the most relevant to monitor the impact of fishing in the gulf of Gabes. Finally, a comparative approach between several Mediterranean ecosystems was applied using the EcoTroph model to compare their trophic structures and explore the effects of different levels of fishing pressure through the analysis of their trophic spectra.L’objectif de cette thèse est d’améliorer la compréhension du fonctionnement et de la structure trophique du golfe de Gabès en Tunisie. Afin de concilier exigences écologiques et exploitation des ressources marines, différents modèles écosystémiques ont été développés pour étudier sa dynamique trophique et contribuer à la réflexion sur la mise en place de plans de gestion. Un modèle trophique d’équilibre de masse « Ecospace » a été construit afin d’évaluer les conséquences écosystémiques de différentes mesures de gestion. Les résultats des simulations ont permis d’explorer les interactions entre la pêche côtière et la pêche au chalut benthique et d’identifier des zones où les mesures de gestion sont effectives. Un modèle end-to-end a également été appliqué pour expliciter la dynamique des espèces considérées, depuis le forçage climatique jusqu'à la pêche. Cette approche de modélisation consiste à forcer le modèle individu-centré « OSMOSE » par un modèle biogéochimique « Eco3MMed ». Ce modèle a permis d’établir une représentation cohérente du réseau trophique et de simuler des scénarios de gestion théoriques de mise en réserve. Le modèle end-to-end a également été utilisé pour étudier la sensibilité d’un ensemble d’indicateurs écologiques à la pression de pêche. Les résultats ont révélé que les indicateurs de taille sont les plus adaptés pour faire le suivi de l’impact de la pêche dans le golfe de Gabès. Au final, une approche comparative entre plusieurs écosystèmes méditerranéens a été mise en place avec le modèle EcoTroph pour comparer leurs structures trophiques et explorer les effets de plusieurs niveaux d’exploitation par l’analyse de leurs spectres trophiques

Detection of fishing pressure using ecological network indicators derived from ecosystem models

Marine ecosystems are exposed to multiple stressors, mainly fisheries that, whenever mismanaged, may cause irreversible damages to whole food webs. Ecosystem models have been applied to forecast fisheries impact on fish stocks and marine food webs. These impacts have been studied through the use of multiple indicators that help to understand ecosystem responses to stressors. This study focused on a category of ecological indicators derived from the network theory to quantify energy flows inside the food web. These indicators were computed using two ecosystem models applied to the Eastern English Channel (i.e. Atlantis and OSMOSE). This work aimed at investigating how several ecological network indicators respond to different levels of fishing pressure and evaluating their robustness to model structure and fishing strategies. We applied a gradient of fishing mortality using two ecosystem models and carried out ecological network analysis to obtain network-derived indicators. The results revealed that the indicators response is highly driven by the food web structure, although the model assumptions buffered some results. The indicators computed from OSMOSE outputs were more sensitive to changes in fishing pressure than those from Atlantis. However, once the food web from Atlantis was simplified to mimic the structure of OSMOSE model, the indicators of the modified Atlantis became more sensitive to the intensity of fishing pressure. The indicators related to amount of energy flow and to the organization of the flows in the food web were sensitive to the increase of fishing mortality for all fishing strategies. These indicators suggested that increasing fishing mortality jeopardizes the amount of energy mobilized by the food webs and simplifies the ecological interactions, which has implications for the resilience of marine ecosystems. The study shed light on the trophic networks structure and functioning of the ecosystems whenever exposed to disturbances. Furthermore, these indicators might be adequate for whole ecosystem assessments of health and contribute to ecosystem management

Detection of fishing pressure using ecological network indicators derived from ecosystem models

Marine ecosystems are exposed to multiple stressors, mainly fisheries that, whenever mismanaged, may cause irreversible damages to whole food webs. Ecosystem models have been applied to forecast fisheries impact on fish stocks and marine food webs. These impacts have been studied through the use of multiple indicators that help to understand ecosystem responses to stressors. This study focused on a category of ecological indicators derived from the network theory to quantify energy flows inside the food web. These indicators were computed using two ecosystem models applied to the Eastern English Channel (i.e. Atlantis and OSMOSE). This work aimed at investigating how several ecological network indicators respond to different levels of fishing pressure and evaluating their robustness to model structure and fishing strategies. We applied a gradient of fishing mortality using two ecosystem models and carried out ecological network analysis to obtain network-derived indicators. The results revealed that the indicators response is highly driven by the food web structure, although the model assumptions buffered some results. The indicators computed from OSMOSE outputs were more sensitive to changes in fishing pressure than those from Atlantis. However, once the food web from Atlantis was simplified to mimic the structure of OSMOSE model, the indicators of the modified Atlantis became more sensitive to the intensity of fishing pressure. The indicators related to amount of energy flow and to the organization of the flows in the food web were sensitive to the increase of fishing mortality for all fishing strategies. These indicators suggested that increasing fishing mortality jeopardizes the amount of energy mobilized by the food webs and simplifies the ecological interactions, which has implications for the resilience of marine ecosystems. The study shed light on the trophic networks structure and functioning of the ecosystems whenever exposed to disturbances. Furthermore, these indicators might be adequate for whole ecosystem assessments of health and contribute to ecosystem management

Reconstruction of Marine fisheries catches for Tunisia (1950-2010)

International audienceThe reconstructed total domestic marine catches for Tunisia’s fisheries, including large-scale and small-scale commercial catches and recreational catch, as well as major discards, have been estimated for the 1950-2010 period, and increased from approximately 14,500 t·year-1 in the 1950s to over 98,800 t·year-1 in the 2000s. The estimated total domestic catches within Tunisia’s EEZ are 1.13 times the national data. Foreign flag industrial catches were estimated to increase from almost7,800 t in 1950 to a peak of just under 19,200 t in 1975, and then decline to 560 t in 2010. Domestic landings were obtained from official reports of the department of fisheries at the Tunisian agricultural ministry and from the Tunisian National Institute of Statistics. Foreign flag catches anddomestic discards were estimated based on independent studies and recreational catches were reconstructed based on information provided by the Tunisian Federation of Sport Fishing and other surveys