Causality in Crude Oil Prices

The world market of crude oil has three well established benchmarks used for pricing of other crudes: West Texas Intermediate, Europe Brent and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these are however declining, as the output of the benchmarks is decreasing, and as an increasing share of world crude produced is of worse quality than the benchmarks (pointed out by e.g. Montepeque, 2005). Particularly the segment of medium density, sour crudes is lacking a reliable benchmark. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils empirically. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just follow the general market trend. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality segments, geographical segments and the segments of OPEC and non-OPEC crudes. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are if not benchmarks, at least good price indicators. While the well-established benchmarks WTI and Brent still lead the market, they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter. The lack of a reliable benchmark for medium density, sour crudes is thereby confirmed.Granger causality; crude oil; benchmark; West Texas Intermediate; Europe Brent; Dubai Fateh; Russian Urals; Iran Seri Kerir; price dynamics

Stock Market Volatility, Risk Attitude and the Demand for Money in the UK

Is stock market volatility an important determinant of money demand in the UK? If yes, what is the driving force behind that effect? In a cointegration framework, we find that volatility in share prices is an important positive determinant of money demand, alongside standard variables and the stock price level. By studying different stock market indexes effects, we find that the risk aversion of investors is an important force behind the effect, implying that the effect is due to investors’ flight to safer assets in times of volatile stock prices

Does commonality in illiquidity matter to investors?

This paper investigates whether investors are compensated for taking on commonality risk in equity portfolios. A large literature documents the existence and the causes of commonality in illiquidity, but the implications for investors are less well understood. In a more than fifty year long sample of NYSE stocks, we find that commonality risk carries a return premium of around 2.6 per cent annually. The commonality risk premium is statistically and economically significant, and substantially higher than what is found in previous studies. It is robust when controlling for illiquidity level effects, different investment horizons, as well as variations in illiquidity measurement and systematic illiquidity estimation

Validation of the IPAQ Against Different Accelerometer Cut-Points in Older Cancer Survivors and Adults at Risk of Cancer

Introduction: The present study investigated the convergent validity of an interview-administered IPAQ long version (IPAQ-L) in an older population by comparison with objective accelerometry movement data. Methods: Data from 52 participants (mean age 67.9 years, 62% male) were included in the analysis. Treadmill derived (TM-ACC: 1952-5724 cpm) and free-living physical activity (PA) derived (FL-ACC: 760-5724 cpm) accelerometer cut-points were used as criterion. Results: IPAQ-L measures (total PA, leisure-time, walking-time, sedentary time) were significantly correlated with accelerometry (P≤0.05). Differences in sex were observed. Bland-Altman Limits of Agreement analysis showed that the IPAQ-L overestimated PA in relation to accelerometry. Conclusions: Our results show that an interview-administered IPAQ-L shows low to moderate convergent validity with objective PA measures in this population but there may be differences between males and females which should be further investigated

Causality in Crude Oil Prices

The world market of crude oil has three well established benchmarks used for pricing of other crudes: West Texas Intermediate, Europe Brent and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these are however declining, as the output of the benchmarks is decreasing, and as an increasing share of world crude produced is of worse quality than the benchmarks (pointed out by e.g. Montepeque, 2005). Particularly the segment of medium density, sour crudes is lacking a reliable benchmark. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils empirically. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just follow the general market trend. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality segments, geographical segments and the segments of OPEC and non-OPEC crudes. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are if not benchmarks, at least good price indicators. While the well-established benchmarks WTI and Brent still lead the market, they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter. The lack of a reliable benchmark for medium density, sour crudes is thereby confirmed

The International Prevalence Study on Physical Activity: results from 20 countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical activity (PA) is one of the most important factors for improving population health, but no standardised systems exist for international surveillance. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was developed for international surveillance. The purpose of this study was a comparative international study of population physical activity prevalence across 20 countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between 2002–2004, a standardised protocol using IPAQ was used to assess PA participation in 20 countries [total N = 52,746, aged 18–65 years]. The median survey response rate was 61%. Physical activity levels were categorised as "low", "moderate" and "high". Age-adjusted prevalence estimates are presented by sex.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of "high PA" varied from 21–63%; in eight countries high PA was reported for over half of the adult population. The prevalence of "low PA" varied from 9% to 43%. Males more frequently reported high PA than females in 17 of 20 countries. The prevalence of low PA ranged from 7–41% among males, and 6–49% among females. Gender differences were noted, especially for younger adults, with males more active than females in most countries. Markedly lower physical activity prevalence (10% difference) with increasing age was noted in 11 of 19 countries for males, but only in three countries for women. The ways populations accumulated PA differed, with some reporting mostly vigorous intensity activities and others mostly walking.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study demonstrated the feasibility of international PA surveillance, and showed that IPAQ is an acceptable surveillance instrument, at least within countries. If assessment methods are used consistently over time, trend data will inform countries about the success of their efforts to promote physical activity.</p

Fit to Perform: A Profile of Higher Education Music Students’ Physical Fitness

Musicians are often called athletes of the upper body, but knowledge of their physical and fitness profiles is nonetheless limited, especially those of advanced music students who are training to enter music’s competitive professional landscape. To gain insight into how physical fitness is associated with music making, this study investigated music students’ fitness levels on several standardized indicators. 483 students took part in a fitness screening protocol that included measurements of lung function, flexibility (hypermobility, shoulder range of motion, sit and reach), strength and endurance (hand grip, plank, press-up), and sub-maximal cardiovascular fitness (3-min step test), as well as self-reported physical activity (IPAQ-SF). Participants scored within ranges appropriate for their age on lung function, shoulder range of motion, grip strength, and cardiovascular fitness. Their results for the plank, press up, and sit and reach were poor by comparison. Reported difficulty (22%) and pain (17%) in internal rotation of the right shoulder were also found. Differences between instrument groups and levels of study were observed on some measures. In particular, brass players showed greater lung function and grip strength compared with other groups, and postgraduate students on the whole were able to maintain the plank for longer but also demonstrated higher hypermobility and lower lung function (FEV1) and cardiovascular fitness than undergraduates. 79% of participants exceeded the minimum recommended weekly amount of physical activity, with singers the most physically active group and keyboard players, composers, and conductors the least active. IPAQ-SF scores correlated positively with lung function, sit and reach, press-up and cardiovascular fitness suggesting that, in the absence of time and resources to carry out comprehensive physical assessments with musicians, this one measure alone can provide useful insights. The findings indicate that music students have adequate levels of general health-related fitness, and we discuss whether adequate fitness is enough for people undertaking physically and mentally demanding activities such as making music. We argue that musicians could benefit from strengthening their supportive musculature and enhancing their awareness of strength imbalances

Lower cardiorespiratory fitness contributes to increased insulin resistance and fasting glycaemia in middle-aged South Asian compared with European men living in the UK

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to determine the extent to which increased insulin resistance and fasting glycaemia in South Asian men, compared with white European men, living in the UK, was due to lower cardiorespiratory fitness (maximal oxygen uptake [[Formula: see text]]) and physical activity. METHODS: One hundred South Asian and 100 age- and BMI-matched European men without diagnosed diabetes, aged 40–70 years, had fasted blood taken for measurement of glucose concentration, HOMA-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA(IR)), plus other risk factors, and underwent assessment of physical activity (using accelerometry), [Formula: see text], body size and composition, and demographic and other lifestyle factors. For 13 South Asian and one European man, HbA(1c) levels were >6.5% (>48 mmol/mol), indicating potential undiagnosed diabetes; these men were excluded from the analyses. Linear regression models were used to determine the extent to which body size and composition, fitness and physical activity variables explained differences in HOMA(IR) and fasting glucose between South Asian and European men. RESULTS: HOMA(IR) and fasting glucose were 67% (p < 0.001) and 3% (p < 0.018) higher, respectively, in South Asians than Europeans. Lower [Formula: see text], lower physical activity and greater total adiposity in South Asians individually explained 68% (95% CI 45%, 91%), 29% (11%, 46%) and 52% (30%, 80%), respectively, and together explained 83% (50%, 119%) (all p < 0.001) of the ethnic difference in HOMA(IR). Lower [Formula: see text] and greater total adiposity, respectively, explained 61% (9%, 111%) and 39% (9%, 76%) (combined effect 63% [8%, 115%]; all p < 0.05) of the ethnic difference in fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Lower cardiorespiratory fitness is a key factor associated with the excess insulin resistance and fasting glycaemia in middle-aged South Asian, compared with European, men living in the UK. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-013-2969-y) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users

Objective vs. Self-Reported Physical Activity and Sedentary Time: Effects of Measurement Method on Relationships with Risk Biomarkers

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Purpose:&lt;/b&gt; Imprecise measurement of physical activity variables might attenuate estimates of the beneficial effects of activity on health-related outcomes. We aimed to compare the cardiometabolic risk factor dose-response relationships for physical activity and sedentary behaviour between accelerometer- and questionnaire-based activity measures.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; Physical activity and sedentary behaviour were assessed in 317 adults by 7-day accelerometry and International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Fasting blood was taken to determine insulin, glucose, triglyceride and total, LDL and HDL cholesterol concentrations and homeostasis model-estimated insulin resistance (HOMAIR). Waist circumference, BMI, body fat percentage and blood pressure were also measured.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; For both accelerometer-derived sedentary time (&#60;100 counts.min−1) and IPAQ-reported sitting time significant positive (negative for HDL cholesterol) relationships were observed with all measured risk factors – i.e. increased sedentary behaviour was associated with increased risk (all p&#8804;0.01). However, for HOMAIR and insulin the regression coefficients were &#62;50% lower for the IPAQ-reported compared to the accelerometer-derived measure (p&#60;0.0001 for both interactions). The relationships for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and risk factors were less strong than those observed for sedentary behaviours, but significant negative relationships were observed for both accelerometer and IPAQ MVPA measures with glucose, and insulin and HOMAIR values (all p&#60;0.05). For accelerometer-derived MVPA only, additional negative relationships were seen with triglyceride, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol concentrations, BMI, waist circumference and percentage body fat, and a positive relationship was evident with HDL cholesterol (p = 0.0002). Regression coefficients for HOMAIR, insulin and triglyceride were 43–50% lower for the IPAQ-reported compared to the accelerometer-derived MVPA measure (all p&#8804;0.01).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Conclusion:&lt;/b&gt; Using the IPAQ to determine sitting time and MVPA reveals some, but not all, relationships between these activity measures and metabolic and vascular disease risk factors. Using this self-report method to quantify activity can therefore underestimate the strength of some relationships with risk factors.&lt;/p&gt